Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Returning to growth during 2026
• Panoro reported average production of 8,811 bbl/d in 3Q25, in line with prior disclosures from BW Energy (Gabon) and Kosmos Energy (Equatorial Guinea). Gabon volumes were impacted by a three-week planned maintenance, while EG production was constrained by mechanical failures on subsea pumps at Ceiba.• The first pump was restored in early 4Q25, with the second expected online later this quarter and the third in 1Q26. EG production is anticipated to normalize by 1Q26.
• Reflecting recent downtime, Panoro now forecasts full-year 2025 production slightly below 11 mboe/d. We forecast ~11 mboe/d production in 4Q25.
• Drilling at Dussafu (MaboMo Phase 2) remains scheduled to restart in 2026, targeting four wells and first oil in 2H26. The programme aims to restore gross plateau output to ~40,000 bbl/d.
• Initial development of the Bourdon find at Dussafu is expected to involve three wells.
• A 3D seismic campaign is set to begin shortly across the Niosi, Guduma, and Dussafu licenses, with completion targeted for 1Q26.
• As of end-September, Panoro held US$44 mmm in cash, with net debt of US$111 mm (down from US$115 mm at end-June).
• We re-iterate our target price of NOK49 per share.
Potential fast track development in EG
The Estrella find, located in 60 metres of water on Block EG-23 (80% WI), has been prioritized as a fast-track development candidate, benefiting from proximity to existing infrastructure suitable for tie-back. The Estrella-1 well flowed at 6,780 bbl/d of light oil (48–50° API) and 48.7 mmcf/d of gas. A farm-out of interest in the discovery is under consideration for 2026, potentially serving as a precursor to a future Final Investment Decision. EG-23 holds an estimated 112 mmbbl of net 2C contingent resources, which are currently not reflected in our valuation. Advancing Estrella could unlock significant value and represents a material catalyst for the portfolio.
Valuation
Our Core NAV and ReNAV are at NOK38 per share and NOK48 per share respectively. We currently assume ~US$40 mm capex in 2026. At US$65/bbl for Brent, this would lead to ~US$40 mm free cash flow.
Panoro Energy is an international independent oil and gas company engaged in the exploration and production of oil and gas resources in Brazil and West Africa. In Brazil, Co. participates in a number of oil and gas licenses located in the Santos basin outside the south-east coast of Brazil and in the Camamu-Almada basin in the state of Bahia. In West Africa, Co. participates in a number of licences in Nigeria and Gabon. As of Dec 31 2013, Co.'s commercial production is from the Manati field in Brazil.
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.