PetroTal Corp (AIM: PTAL): Imminent work-over programme at Bretana
• 3Q25 production averaged 18,414 bbl/d. This rate is consistent with the previously reported rate of 18,805 bbl/d through 15 September, reflecting the impact of well shut-ins at Bretana since mid-August.• Five wells are currently offline at Bretana, with total group production (including Los Angeles) averaging ~16 mbbl/d over the first 10 days of October. A workover rig has been mobilised from Block 131, and operations to retrieve failed tubing in the shut-in wells are scheduled to begin at month-end. As a preventive measure, PetroTal also plans to replace ESPs in several wells.
• Production is therefore expected to progressively ramp-up in November and December.
• The company’s FY25 production guidance of 20–21 mbbl/d remains unchanged at this stage.
• PetroTal plans to import its own rig into Peru in 1Q26, enabling a return to drilling activity. We currently assume 3–4 new wells will be drilled at Bretana in 2026. Our FY26 capex forecast remains unchanged at approximately US$100 mm.
• We note the recent change in Peru’s presidency. PetroTal has operated under multiple administrations with minimal operational disruption.
• We reiterate our target price of £1.00 per share. The FY25 dividend yield remains attractive at approximately 12%.
Balance sheet
PetroTal reported a cash balance of US$141.5 mm at the end of September, approximately US$10 mm ahead of our expectations—even after accounting for the US$4 mm positive working capital movement between 30 June and 30 September 2025.
Valuation
Our 2P Core NAV now stands at £0.72 per share, representing 2.2x the current share price, with a ReNAV of £0.95 per share. We have revised our Brent price assumptions for 4Q25 and 1Q26 from US$70/bbl to US$65/bbl, while maintaining US$70/bbl from 2Q26 onward.
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