AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/ CN)C; Target price of £0.80 per share: Flow rate in line with expectations at AB-1. Two more appraisal wells in January - The AB-1 (Alberta Llanos) exploration well is now on production at an oil rate of 658 bbl/d gross (329 bbl/d net) with 49% water cut from 62 feet of net pay in the Ubaque. The IP rate is in line with the expectations set out in the company’s September corporate presentation (321 bbl/d net)...
• 3Q24 production was 19,150 bbl/d including 18,938 bbl/d from Bretana and the remainder at Block 131. This performance exceeded expectations, as we had anticipated 17,900 bbl/d for Bretana. • FY24 production at Bretana was 17,733 bbl/d, which is above the guidance of 16.5-17.5 mbbl/d. • PetroTal held US$115 mm of cash (including US$103 mm of unrestricted cash) at YE24. Including payables and receivables, YE24 working capital was US$112 mm, higher than our forecast of US$107 mm. • Well 22H is in...
PetroTal has released its Q4 2024 operational update, reporting a strong quarter for production and a small amount of outperformance versus full year guidance. The cash holding also remains strong ahead of the company’s 2025 work programme and budget announcement on 16 January.
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LN)C; Target price of £0.08 per share: US$100 mm guarantees highlight the value of the South Africa energy trading business - British International Investment (BII) and GuarantCo have announced a US$100 mm guarantee finance facility for Etana Energy, the South African electricity trading platform which is owned and was co-founded by Chariot (49%) and H1 Holdings (51%). Etana is one of the few companies holding an electric...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: 1.9 mbbl/d at latest CN well. Water disposal infrastructure operational. High net cash – The fifth horizontal well at Carrizales Norte (CNB HZ-6) is producing 1.9 mbbl/d of oil (0.95 mbbl/d net to Arrow) with a water cut of 31%. The well reached TD ~ one month ago. After ~1 month of production, CNB HZ-1 and CNB HZ-3 were also producing >30% water with ~1 mbbl/d oil produ...
• 3Q24 production was 15,203 bbl/d. This is in line with previous indications. The cash position at the end of September had been previously reported and there are no surprises in the rest of the balance sheet. • With the end of the dry season, production has rapidly increased from 10.7 mbbl/d during the first week of October to >21 mbbl/d currently. • PetroTal is buying a new rig that will be imported into Peru in 1Q25. Having a more modern rig will reduce downtime and minimize mobilization and...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target price US$26 per share: Downtime and blockades continue to impact production. All eyes on Argentina – 3Q24 production was 33,215 boe/d with production in Colombia still impacted by downtime and blockades (we expected 34.6 mboe/d). Production at Llanos-34 continues to decline. Production in Brazil remains shut-in. GeoPark had highlighted these downside risks in August. This was partially offset by (1) high prod...
• 3Q24 production was 15,160 bbl/d. This is well above expectations of 13 mbbl/d. While the river levels were at record lows, PetroTal has maximized the barge fleet capacity during the quarter. • Production during the first week of October was 10.7 mbbl/d. With the end of the dry season in sight, production is expected to return to capacity by mid-November, • As a result, FY24 production is expected to be at the top end of the 16.5-17.5 mbbl/d guidance. • Petrotal held US$133 mm in cash (US$121 ...
• The VS1 sand has produced ~320 bbl/d of 18.6 API oil during a brief test of a sidetrack of Well 20H. The oil gravity is similar to that found in the VS2 reservoir. • The VS1 reservoir has not been developed to date as the company has only focused on the VS2 that has much better permeability. • The initial oil in place in the VS1 reservoir estimated in the 2P case is ~84 mmbbl. Assuming 20% recovery factor would add ~17 mmbbl additional 2P reserves. Note that this is a long term goal as it wi...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price NOK52 per share: All eyes on EG – 1H24 production was 9,168 bbl/d. EG and Gabon production had already been disclosed. 1H24 production in Tunisia was 1,670 bbl/d (we forecasted 1,760 bbl/d) given subdued activities. In EG, the first infill well encountered the primary and secondary reservoirs in line with expectations. Production is expected to begin early September. The second infill well is expec...
• 2Q24 production of 18,290 bbl/d had been reported previously. • Production in July was 20,034 bbl/d, very close to the production of 20,555 bbl/d in June. • The dry river season indicators are at the moment at lower levels than 2023. However, the production guidance of ~13 mbbl/d for 3Q24 has been re-iterated thanks to the increased barge fleet size. • Our FY24 forecast of 16.8 mbbl/d is unchanged (unchanged guidance of 16.5-17.5 mbbl/d). • PetroTal is accelerating drilling capex to minimize...
PetroTal has released its Q2 2024 results, providing further detail on a strong period of production and cash flow generation to augment data already reported in July. Going into H2, we look for further drilling results as the CAPEX programme continues, production performance updates as we go through the lower river levels part of the year, and progress on export routes, including the ongoing Ecuador trials.
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ PetroTal (PTAL LN/CN)C; Target price of £1.50 per share: Unrestricted cash position increased by >30% during the last quarter – 2Q24 production of 18,290 bbl/d was very near our forecasts of 18.5 mbbl/d but marginally below the company target of ~19 mbbl/d. A brief river blockade impacted production but production in June was 20,555 bbl/d. All regulatory approvals for the pilot to sell 100 mbbl of production through Ecuador have now be...
• 2Q24 production of 18,290 bbl/d was very near our forecasts of 18.5 mbbl/d but marginally below the company target of ~19 mbbl/d. A brief river blockade impacted production but production in June was 20,555 bbl/d. • Well 19H has achieved production rates of ~8.5 mbbl/d during the initial 7 days of production. This is one of the best wells drilled by the company, particularly given that the horizontal section was 600 m shorter than at other wells and that the well cost only US$11.5 mm. This com...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ GeoPark (GPRK US)C; target price of US$26 per share: More favourable offtake contract in Colombia – GeoPark has signe da new offtake contract with Vitol for a minimum of 20 mbbl/d. The agreement improves GeoPark’s price realizations by US$0.15/bbl vs the current agreement. As part of this transaction, GeoPark will obtain immediate access to committed funding from Vitol for up to US$300 mm, with an option to increase by another US$200 m...
• PetroTal is acquiring Block 131 onshore Peru including the Los Angeles field from CEPSA for US$5 mm. The field produces ~900 boe/d from 4 existing wells and holds 4.9 mmbbl of 40-45 deg API oil 2P reserves. • We estimate that 3 new wells (at ~US$12 mm per well) could increase production to 2-3 mbbl/d. There are also opportunities to develop bypassed oil with horizontal wells drilled high on the structure. • The oil is currently sold at the Iquitos refinery and passes by the Bretana field (in b...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$1.00 per share: Restarting production at Anshof – The Permanent Production Facility (PPF), with a capacity of 3,000 bbl/d of liquids, has been commissioned and the Anshof-3 well has recommenced production at a rate of 134 bbl/d with no water. The operation has been undertaken in line with expectations and within budget. The oil production rate at Anshof-3 is 16% above the rate prior to shut-in. A...
• 1Q24 production of 18,518 bbl/d was in line with our expectations. • Production over the last 30 days was 20.5 mbbl/d with the recently drilled 17H well, now on pump, delivering 4,500 bbl/d. • This bodes very well for 2Q24 production given that the 18H well is expected to commence production in May. We currently forecast only 19 mbbl/d production in 2Q24, which could be on the low side. • PetroTal held US$63 mm in unrestricted cash plus US$22 mm of restricted March as the end of March. • Whi...
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