AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/ CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: Stable production, 10% cash increase – Net production is currently exceeding 4.5 mboe/d, consistent with January levels. The CN HZ10 well, located in the northern area of the CN field, commenced production on 31 March, delivering 1,183 bbl/d of oil (591 bbl/d net to Arrow) with a 21% water cut from the Ubaque reservoir. The well is in the process of cleaning up, with the water cut gradually decreasing. The CN ...
• 1Q25 production was 23,280 bbl/d, comprising 22,660 bbl/d at Bretana and 620 bbl/d at Los Angeles. • 1Q25 production at Bretana was ~1 mbbl/d above our expectations. The high production reflects the strong performance of the recent wells. Well 23H produced 3,363 bbl/d in March, reaching a maximum daily high of 5,110 bb/d. Well 22H, which was brought onstream in mid-January, produced an average of 4,386 bbl/d in March. • The company has re-iterated its FY25 production guidance of 21,000 bbl/d t...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LN)C; Target price of £0.10 per share: Significant power transaction highlights the value of the S. Africa electricity trading business – Etana Energy, the South African electricity trading business (49% held by Chariot) has arranged a US$55 mm guarantee finance facility through Standard Bank and secured an equity investment of up to US$20 mm from Norfund for working capital. In exchange, Standard Bank and Norfund will ho...
• FY24 production figures had been previously disclosed. • The total cash position of $114.5 mm, of which $102.8 mm was unrestricted, is in line with previous indications. The minimal working capital deficit of US$1.5 mm is also in line with our expectations. • YTD 2025 oil production has averaged 23,200 bbl/d, comprising 22,600 bbl/d from the Bretana field and 600 bbl/d from the Los Angeles field. This exceeds our forecast of 21.5 mbbl/d as the two last wells at Bretana have delivered very st...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.60 per share: Very high flow rate at bypassed zone boosts production and unlocks reserves - A potential bypassed 60 m gas pay section, identified using advanced cased-hole logging tools and reprocessed existing 3-D seismic data, was put in production over a 23 m perforated interval at a rate of 1,100 boe/d, increasing to 1,300 boe/d over the past five days as the completion fluid has been ...
• YE24 1P, 2P and 3P reserves at Bretana were estimated at 62.9 mmbbl (YE23: 48 mmbbl), 108 mmbbl (YE23: 100.2 mmbbl) and 206.6 mmbbl (YE23: 199.6 mmbbl) respectively. Additionally, Los Angeles is now estimated to hold 5.8 mmbbl of 2P reserves, an increase of 1.5 mmbbl from previous estimates. Overall, the new reserves estimates represent a Reserves Replacement Ratio of 293% for 1P and 208% for 2P reserves. • The increase in 1P reserves reflects the conversion of reserves from the 2P and 3P cate...
PetroTal has released its reserves update for the end of 2024. This shows a significant uptick versus the end 2023 numbers, based on positive technical additions at Bretana due to more wells being added to the forward development plan, alongside additions from the acquisition of the Los Angeles field. This is a positive update, demonstrating in particular the attractiveness of Bretana as a long-term cash-producing asset.
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Corcel (CRCL LN)C; Target price of 1.00p per share: Initiating Coverage - Corcel is a ~£6 mm market cap AIM-listed E&P company focused on Portuguese-speaking Angola and Brazil. It offers a unique exposure to the prolific Kwanza onshore basin in Angola which reopened to international companies in 2021. Corcel is also building a portfolio of mature onshore producing assets in Brazil. The key asset in Angola is the KON-16 licence, which C...
• PetroTal expects to produce 21-23 mbbl/d in 2025, with the midpoint of this guidance exceeding our expectations of 21.2 mbbl/d. • Although only four new wells are expected to come online in 2025 (including the 23H well but excluding the final well of the FY25 four-well drilling program), average production is expected to grow by ~4.2 mbbl/d from 2024 to 2025. In comparison, six new producers were brought online in 2024 (excluding the 23H well but including the 16H well), but production increas...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/ CN)C; Target price of £0.80 per share: Flow rate in line with expectations at AB-1. Two more appraisal wells in January - The AB-1 (Alberta Llanos) exploration well is now on production at an oil rate of 658 bbl/d gross (329 bbl/d net) with 49% water cut from 62 feet of net pay in the Ubaque. The IP rate is in line with the expectations set out in the company’s September corporate presentation (321 bbl/d net)...
• 3Q24 production was 19,150 bbl/d including 18,938 bbl/d from Bretana and the remainder at Block 131. This performance exceeded expectations, as we had anticipated 17,900 bbl/d for Bretana. • FY24 production at Bretana was 17,733 bbl/d, which is above the guidance of 16.5-17.5 mbbl/d. • PetroTal held US$115 mm of cash (including US$103 mm of unrestricted cash) at YE24. Including payables and receivables, YE24 working capital was US$112 mm, higher than our forecast of US$107 mm. • Well 22H is in...
PetroTal has released its Q4 2024 operational update, reporting a strong quarter for production and a small amount of outperformance versus full year guidance. The cash holding also remains strong ahead of the company’s 2025 work programme and budget announcement on 16 January.
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LN)C; Target price of £0.08 per share: US$100 mm guarantees highlight the value of the South Africa energy trading business - British International Investment (BII) and GuarantCo have announced a US$100 mm guarantee finance facility for Etana Energy, the South African electricity trading platform which is owned and was co-founded by Chariot (49%) and H1 Holdings (51%). Etana is one of the few companies holding an electric...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: 1.9 mbbl/d at latest CN well. Water disposal infrastructure operational. High net cash – The fifth horizontal well at Carrizales Norte (CNB HZ-6) is producing 1.9 mbbl/d of oil (0.95 mbbl/d net to Arrow) with a water cut of 31%. The well reached TD ~ one month ago. After ~1 month of production, CNB HZ-1 and CNB HZ-3 were also producing >30% water with ~1 mbbl/d oil produ...
• 3Q24 production was 15,203 bbl/d. This is in line with previous indications. The cash position at the end of September had been previously reported and there are no surprises in the rest of the balance sheet. • With the end of the dry season, production has rapidly increased from 10.7 mbbl/d during the first week of October to >21 mbbl/d currently. • PetroTal is buying a new rig that will be imported into Peru in 1Q25. Having a more modern rig will reduce downtime and minimize mobilization and...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target price US$26 per share: Downtime and blockades continue to impact production. All eyes on Argentina – 3Q24 production was 33,215 boe/d with production in Colombia still impacted by downtime and blockades (we expected 34.6 mboe/d). Production at Llanos-34 continues to decline. Production in Brazil remains shut-in. GeoPark had highlighted these downside risks in August. This was partially offset by (1) high prod...
• 3Q24 production was 15,160 bbl/d. This is well above expectations of 13 mbbl/d. While the river levels were at record lows, PetroTal has maximized the barge fleet capacity during the quarter. • Production during the first week of October was 10.7 mbbl/d. With the end of the dry season in sight, production is expected to return to capacity by mid-November, • As a result, FY24 production is expected to be at the top end of the 16.5-17.5 mbbl/d guidance. • Petrotal held US$133 mm in cash (US$121 ...
• The VS1 sand has produced ~320 bbl/d of 18.6 API oil during a brief test of a sidetrack of Well 20H. The oil gravity is similar to that found in the VS2 reservoir. • The VS1 reservoir has not been developed to date as the company has only focused on the VS2 that has much better permeability. • The initial oil in place in the VS1 reservoir estimated in the 2P case is ~84 mmbbl. Assuming 20% recovery factor would add ~17 mmbbl additional 2P reserves. Note that this is a long term goal as it wi...
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