Yubico (Buy, TP: SEK310.00) - Strong conviction, and no cracks
The Q4 results included a couple of surprises, namely delivery of a large order slipping to Q1, which drove a headline miss, and the CFO’s departure. We admit the burden of proof has increased, but unlike short-sellers, do not see cracks starting to form, with: 1) a 5% bookings beat despite a tough YOY comparable de-risking 2025e growth and signalling that it remains a key beneficiary in this heightened threat landscape; 2) an underlying EBIT beat of 10–15% versus company-compiled consensus and above-consensus margins had the delivery not been pushed out; and 3) strong FCF conversion at 79%. We forecast 45% adj. EPS growth in 2025 and reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK310 (340).
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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