reports
- Joachim Gunell
Yubico (Buy, TP: SEK275.00) - Second noisy quarter in a row
We see Yubico as a continued beneficiary in this heightened cybersecurity threat landscape. The short-term momentum of our thesis has come down amid tougher comparables and a higher burden of proof, while we expect soft Q1 results. For investors willing to look beyond the short-term noise, we believe most negatives are factored in (it is the fifth-most shorted stock on the Stockholm Main Market), and we expect it to reverse the bearish sentiment in 2025. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our ta...
- Joachim Gunell
Yubico (Buy, TP: SEK310.00) - Strong conviction, and no cracks
The Q4 results included a couple of surprises, namely delivery of a large order slipping to Q1, which drove a headline miss, and the CFO’s departure. We admit the burden of proof has increased, but unlike short-sellers, do not see cracks starting to form, with: 1) a 5% bookings beat despite a tough YOY comparable de-risking 2025e growth and signalling that it remains a key beneficiary in this heightened threat landscape; 2) an underlying EBIT beat of 10–15% versus company-compiled consensus and ...
- Joachim Gunell
Yubico (Buy, TP: SEK340.00) - Cybersecurity debt remains unpaid
2024 was a big year for data breaches, where Yubico achieved four strong bookings beats versus high sell-side expectations, while winning numerous awards. Investors may question whether 2025 can get better, as short interest has increased, but we are not concerned about recent insider sells. We see it as a beneficiary of increased threats, where the cybersecurity threat remains unresolved. We forecast 42% EPS growth YOY for 2025 (facing a high base), with additional upside potential from its str...
- Joachim Gunell
Yubico (Buy, TP: SEK335.00) - Set to unlock flows in 2025
We expect the stock to start trading on the Nasdaq Stockholm (main market) in Q1–Q2 2025, enabling Yubico to broaden its investor base. Also, similar list changes have acted as a share-price catalyst in today’s liquidity and flow-driven markets. Yubico’s international and institutional ownership trails peers, its investor positioning remains negative, with 5.7% of the free float shorted, and a list change could open the door for potential benchmark index inclusion. We reiterate our BUY and SEK33...
- Joachim Gunell
Yubico (Buy, TP: SEK335.00) - Further bookings growth in Q4e
Reversing a 9% initial gain, the share price fell 9% yesterday on investor concerns for fading growth momentum in Q4 on tougher comparables YOY. This offset the strong Q3 underlying beat versus the company-compiled consensus. In our view, Yubico’s growth story is only beginning; we forecast organic bookings up 18% and EPS up 42% YOY in 2025, facing a high base, where we see further upside potential to our above-consensus view from strategic B2B2C partnerships, Microsoft Authenticator implementat...
- Joachim Gunell
Yubico (Buy, TP: SEK325.00) - Q3e bookings 8% above consensus
Yubico’s share price has been on something of a rollercoaster in recent months (still +135% YOY), but we see attractive risk/reward on the recent pullback as we expect it to counter recent short criticism with solid Q3 bookings and EBIT 8% above company-compiled consensus, supporting positive consensus revisions momentum. Following recent blowout quarters, we believe the ‘wow factor’ might fade on tougher YOY comparables in Q4 2024e, but still expect 18% and 31% bookings and EPS growth YOY, resp...
- Joachim Gunell
Yubico (Buy, TP: SEK335.00) - On a consensus-beating streak
The Q2 results beat company-compiled consensus across the board, from bookings to FCF, supporting the recent share price rally. After the Q3 results, we believe it could become harder for Yubico to surprise positively to fuel further multiples expansion short-term; the founder and CEO lock-up expiration on 19 September could be a Q3 indicator. That said, Yubico is in the early innings of its growth story and our above-consensus view suggests continued positive earnings revision momentum in H2e a...
- Joachim Gunell
Yubico Minor model adjustments
Ahead of Yubico’s Q2 results (due on 15 August), we expect still-strong 48% organic bookings growth YOY, with EBIT 4% above a thin Bloomberg consensus (stripping out our contribution). Amid a recent escalation of large-scale cyber threats (United Health’s attack, estimated to cost ~USD1.5bn, and CDK Global’s attack, which affected 15,000 North American car dealerships), the need for modern, phishing-resistant MFA has become increasingly evident, and we expect notable strength from financial serv...
- Joachim Gunell
Yubico (Buy, TP: SEK280.00) - Bookings beat offers H2e treat
Yubico enjoyed strong execution in this heightened threat landscape, where its 83–66% organic bookings growth YOY in Q4–Q1 laid the foundation for 75% adj. EPS growth in 2024e. We expect this to trigger positive consensus revisions and rapid multiples compression. We note the breadth and quality of its bookings growth, success in larger initial subscription deal deployments, and signals that financial services could become Yubico’s most important sector. We have raised our 2024–2025e EBIT by 2% ...
- Joachim Gunell
Yubico - Initiation of coverage - One key to unlock them all
Just as Swedish industrial giants Ericsson (GSM) and Volvo (three-point safety belt) have defined open industry standards in the past, so today is Yubico, a technology pioneer and modern authentication leader spearheading secure login standards. Cybersecurity is a critical issue in 2024 and looks set to remain so for the rest of the decade, suggesting sustained and robust sales growth on underappreciated scalability. We believe this should allow the company to compress its current high multiples...
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