Aker BP (Buy, TP: NOK280.00) - Above consensus on Q3e production, below on prices
Ahead of Aker BP’s Q3 trading update (due at 07:00 CET on 14 October), we forecast net production of 420kboed, 2% above Bloomberg consensus at 411kboed. However, our realised liquids price of USD77.8/bbl is below quoted Brent and consensus as the Johan Sverdrup price differential was slightly negative in Q3. We forecast EBITDA of USD2,585m for the quarter, 2% below consensus. Our 2024e production at 436kboed remains at the top end of the guided 420–440kboed. We reiterate our BUY and NOK280 target price.Aker BP ASA engages in the exploration, development, and production of petroleum resources on the Norwegian Shelf. In addition, Co. has a separate Johan Sverdrup business unit to manage its interest.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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