Refinancing risk coming down

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Eircom, Tele Columbus, Stada, Ahlstrom, AMS Osram, Aston Martin, Axactor, Constellium, Lowell, Vallourec, Versuni (formerly Philips Domestic Appliances), CEMEX, Engineering Group, Infopro Digital, Ineos, Motel One, Cerba, Polynt, Standard Profil, Air France-KLM, Crown Holdings, Recordati

Kone (Hold, TP: EUR55.00) - Limited surprises

Q1 provided few surprises: total orders were a touch better than expected; orders received margins continued to decline; China orders matched our estimates; cash flow was strong; and the 2025 guidance was broadly in line with consensus. Having raised our 2025–2027e clean EPS by c2% on average, we have increased our target price to EUR55 (52) but reiterate our HOLD.

Pareto Bank (Buy, TP: NOK84.00) - Solid start to the year

Helped by still-solid core revenues and firm cost efficiency, PARB reported a Q1 ROE of 13.5%, despite some provisions. With deposit volumes rising by ~8.1% QOQ, the bank somewhat increased its bond holdings in the quarter, resulting in a ~5bp lower CET1 ratio at quarter-end, offset by strong earnings generation. We have made only minor changes to our 2026–2027e EPS. With the stock trading at a 2026e P/E of ~8.0x, we still find the valuation attractive, and reiterate our BUY and NOK84 target price.

Sparebanken Møre (Hold, TP: NOK95.00) - Higher margin pressure and costs

With elevated margin pressure and higher costs YOY, Q1 ROE was 11.2%, despite modest loan losses. Given the composition of the lending growth, MORG increased its risk-weight assets, leading to a ~ 20bp lower CET1 ratio QOQ. That said, the bank guided for a net positive effect of ~1.5%-points from the pending implementation of Basel IV in Q2 and Q3, leaving an ample buffer to its 16.15% requirement (including P2G), boding well for solid distributions. We have lowered our 2026–2027e EPS by ~5% on lower NII and higher costs, and our target price to NOK95 (100), but reiterate our HOLD.