Fortnox (Buy, TP: SEK82.00) - Sideways trends into Q4e
Fortnox silenced critics with its strong Q3 results, and short interest has halved since October. For 2025e, we are 6% above Bloomberg consensus EBIT: Fortnox’s exposure to a Swedish macroeconomic recovery should act as a swing for an organic growth acceleration, with a boost from pricing, its business card and payments offering, at an underestimated operating leverage, in our view. Facing a tough comparable in Q4e, we are in line with consensus, as our web traffic study, macro data, and vacation effects could weigh on transactions, pushing the growth acceleration into Q1 2025e. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK82 (83).
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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