Fortnox (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Recommendation and target price withdrawn

This morning, EQT X and First Kraft (Olof Hallrup, Fortnox’s chairman of the board, who owns 18.9% of the shares) announced a take-private offer for Fortnox at SEK90/share or SEK58bn (38% premium to the last close, 13% premium to its recent highs in February). Fortnox’s board of directors recommends the bid, and the consortium said the deal is “best and final” (the consortium will not raise the price), corresponding to a 2025–2026e EV/EBIT of 47–35x and P/E of 61–46x on our numbers. The acceptan...

EQT + CoB bid to take FNOX private

Fortnox (Buy, TP: SEK95.00) - Positive inflection in organic growth

The best way to sum up Fortnox’s solid Q4 results was 25% organic sales growth at a 46% OpFCF margin despite a recessionary backdrop. We believe recent price increases and a heightened monetisation focus de-risks our above-consensus view for 2025e, while improved macroeconomic conditions would lend further usage tailwinds. As we expect to see EBIT growth accelerate to 35–40% YOY in the coming quarters from 30% YOY in 2024, the stock should re-rate, in our view, and we reiterate our BUY. We have ...

Best trigger behind us, valuation fair

Solid in most areas, slightly higher costs

10% price increases on Core products

Keeping our eyes on 2025 pricing trends

Fortnox (Buy, TP: SEK82.00) - Sideways trends into Q4e

Fortnox silenced critics with its strong Q3 results, and short interest has halved since October. For 2025e, we are 6% above Bloomberg consensus EBIT: Fortnox’s exposure to a Swedish macroeconomic recovery should act as a swing for an organic growth acceleration, with a boost from pricing, its business card and payments offering, at an underestimated operating leverage, in our view. Facing a tough comparable in Q4e, we are in line with consensus, as our web traffic study, macro data, and vacatio...

Please don't forget to provide KPIs

More price increases, earlier than expected

Fortnox (Buy, TP: SEK83.00) - Q3 reinforced our scalability thesis

Fortnox continues to execute well in a tough market, with adj. EPS of 34% and adj. FCF growth of 104% YOY, demonstrating the business model’s resilience and scalability. The deconsolidation of Offerta should trigger an organic sales growth acceleration in Q4e at higher margins, while encouraging KPIs for the business card and payments offering show incremental potential for 2025e. Since 2021, the stock has been roughly flat, as it has grown into its valuation multiples (~50% multiples contractio...

Approaching improved organic growth

Better margins, but weaker org. growth

25% organic growth in Q3e is not that bad

Feedback from trade fair visit

Fortnox (Buy, TP: SEK82.00) - Improving fundamentals in Q3e

Short interest is all-time-high after the recent FT scepticism and CEO announcing his departure. We would have preferred to see the CEO execute the next five-year plan, and believe this could keep some investors on the sidelines until a successor is found. We expect short-term uncertainty to decline due to 1) Q3 organic growth acceleration to 28% YOY; 2) we are 2% above Bloomberg consensus on seasonally important Q3e EBIT; and 3) we expect a step-change in FCF. We reiterate our BUY with a reduce...

Competitor has raised prices by 100%

CEO stepping down

Visma SPCS increases prices again

Fortnox (Buy, TP: SEK84.00) - Moving to easier comparables

The bright spots from Fortnox’s Q2 results were 30% EPS growth YOY despite macroeconomic headwinds, and despite lending-based revenues up 64% YOY from a higher base, cash conversion improved to a 38% adj. FCF margin. Fortnox is likely to have to beat consensus for the stock to re-rate, but as it is trading close to trough valuation multiples, we see its seasonally strong Q3e as a potential catalyst, with sales and EBIT growth acceleration to 32% and 40% and a reversal of negative calendar swings...