Improvement not without obstacles

A bit messy, but still an underlying 5% beat

SalMar (Buy, TP: NOK690.00) - Raising long-term ambitions

SalMar’s Q3 report was a mixed bag, with a material cut to the 2024 harvest guidance, 2025 Norwegian harvest guidance in line with consensus, and a new 2028 long-term target of 370kt. The company also raised potential cost synergies by NOK1.25bn between 2024 and 2029, on top of NOK844m already realised. We have cut our 2024–2026e operating EBIT by 5–14%. Our 2025e EPS is 3% below consensus, while 2026e is 8% above. We reiterate our BUY and NOK690 target price.

Icelandic Salmon (Hold, TP: NOK135.00) - Stabilised biology

Q3 operating EBIT of NOK-35m was slightly below our estimate and consensus of NOK-25m. Biology stabilised in Q3 after a challenging H1, and focus shifted to rebuilding biomass. The 2024 volume guidance of 13kt was unchanged, while 2025 was guided at 15kt, 3.2kt–4.2kt below our estimate and consensus. We have cut our target price to NOK135 (145) on our lowered estimates, and downgraded to HOLD (BUY), with the valuation looking fair at a 2025–2026e P/E of 22.6–9.8x.

Yubico (Buy, TP: SEK335.00) - Set to unlock flows in 2025

We expect the stock to start trading on the Nasdaq Stockholm (main market) in Q1–Q2 2025, enabling Yubico to broaden its investor base. Also, similar list changes have acted as a share-price catalyst in today’s liquidity and flow-driven markets. Yubico’s international and institutional ownership trails peers, its investor positioning remains negative, with 5.7% of the free float shorted, and a list change could open the door for potential benchmark index inclusion. We reiterate our BUY and SEK335 target price.