November web-activity insights

Web-activity data points to a significant uptick in trading MOM in November for Avanza and Nordnet, driven by higher activity during and after the US election. We see upside potential on Avanza’s transaction-related commissions, thanks to higher FX fees from likely elevated cross-border trading. The platforms are due to release their November statistics on 4 December.

Fairly valued given short-term growth outlook

November web-activity insights

Web-activity data points to a significant uptick in trading MOM in November for Avanza and Nordnet, driven by higher activity during and after the US election. We see upside potential on Avanza’s transaction-related commissions, thanks to higher FX fees from likely elevated cross-border trading. The platforms are due to release their November statistics on 4 December.

Hexagon Purus (Buy, TP: NOK7.50) - Awaiting US clarity

With the key numbers pre-announced, there was limited news in the Q3 report. A key focus on the conference call was increased uncertainty in the US after comments by Donald Trump about curbing funding for green energy and electric-/hydrogen-fuelled vehicles, relaxing transport emissions allowances, and introducing 25% import tariffs, all of which could affect the company negatively. We reiterate our BUY and NOK7.5 target price, with the stock still trading at a 21–30% discount to hydrogen equipment peers on 2025–2026e EV/sales.

Limited effect of higher gas prices

European gas prices have doubled from February troughs to USD14/mmbtu (USD80/boe), and near-term fundamentals appear supportive for still-elevated prices throughout the winter. However, with high prices likely isolated to 2025–2026e, we see a limited valuation effect on our NCS coverage. Moreover, Equinor and Vår Energi have outperformed peers by ~10–20% since August, and we believe their valuations suggest higher gas prices are well reflected, despite the upside potential to consensus.