March web-activity insights

Web-activity data from March indicates roughly flat trading activity MOM for Avanza and Nordnet, and one of the most active months in three years despite negative seasonality. For Q1e, we see c20% upside potential on Avanza’s trading-related commissions, c15% on Nordnet’s. The platforms are due to release their March statistics on 3 April.

February web-activity insights

Web-activity data points to trading activity up 2–5% MOM for Avanza and Nordnet in February, potentially the second-most active month in three years. For Q1e, we see upside potential to Avanza’s and Nordnet’s transaction-related commissions, since activity seems to be holding up better than the consensus view of an imminent rapid normalisation. The platforms are due to release their February statistics on 5 March.

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK286.00) - German optionality at a modest cost

Nordnet unveiled plans to launch in Germany by H2 2026, targeting profitability by 2029; while the latter looks optimistic to us, the SEK100m guided additional annual costs appear modest given the option value inherent in the huge addressable savings market. Near-term, we see plenty of other growth drivers to accelerate inflows and return Nordnet to >10% EPS growth in 2026e, including macro tailwinds for retail savers, strong stock markets, and the group’s intensified marketing efforts. We have ...

Awaiting a better entry

NII and transaction income stood out in Q4

Valuation not thrilling enough

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK270.00) - Fuel for higher growth in 2025e

We see plenty of growth drivers to accelerate Nordnet’s inflows in 2025e and restore it to >10% EPS growth in 2026e, including macroeconomic tailwinds for household savers, strong equity markets, intensified marketing efforts, and the recent launch of Livrente in Denmark. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 1–2% and our target price to SEK270 (255), and reiterate our BUY.

December web-activity insights

Web-activity data points to trading activity down c5% MOM in December for Avanza and Nordnet, although still high compared to before the US election. We continue to see upside potential on particularly Avanza’s transaction-related commissions, thanks to high FX fees from elevated cross-border trading. The platforms are due to release their December statistics on 7 January.

November web-activity insights

Web-activity data points to a significant uptick in trading MOM in November for Avanza and Nordnet, driven by higher activity during and after the US election. We see upside potential on Avanza’s transaction-related commissions, thanks to higher FX fees from likely elevated cross-border trading. The platforms are due to release their November statistics on 4 December.

Fairly valued given short-term growth outlook

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK255.00) - Several rate-cut mitigants in 2025e

We see plenty of growth drivers to mitigate the EPS drop in 2025e (given the likely rate cut headwinds), and restore Nordnet to >10% EPS growth in 2026e, including: the near-term launch of Livrente in Denmark, macro tailwinds for household savers, widening credit margins in loans and liquidity portfolios, and share buybacks. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 1–2% and our target price to SEK255 (252), and reiterate our BUY.

Q3 in line with expectations

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK252.00) - Starting the shift away from NII

Q3 looks set to mark the start of a 4-quarter trend of falling NII. Nevertheless, our long-term structural growth case is intact and we expect rising commissions to have compensated for most of the NII decline by 2026e. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to SEK252 (256), having reduced our 2025–2026e PTP by c4%, mainly on lower NII.

Valuation lofty while growth decelerates

A surfer on the long-term tailwinds

August web-activity insights

Web-activity data points to trading activity in August being up MOM for Avanza and Nordnet, suggesting a stronger uptick than usual seasonality. Consensus also seems to have overlooked a substantially increased number of trading days in Q3. Based on this, we see upside potential to consensus on Q3e brokerage income for both stocks (more for Avanza). The platforms are due to release their August statistics on 4 September.

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK256.00) - Fund fees taking the torch

Facing NII headwinds from rate cuts, we expect fund fees to buoy the revenue trend – so were encouraged by Q2’s positive fund flow trends and stabilising fund margins. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 0-1% and our target price to SEK256 (254), and reiterate our BUY.

Fairly valued for decelerating growth

Transaction income and NII drove earnings beat in Q2'24. Underlying net earnings up by 1-2% for 2024-26e. Flattish earnings growth in H2'24e for 12m fwd P/E of 21x – HOLD.

Transaction income & NII drives Q2 beat

Q2 trading data better than expected

Activity and deposit development better than expected in Q2. Adj. EPS up by 3-4% driven by higher activity and NII. Growth to come down while valuation is up - HOLD.