Takeaways from Nordnet tech briefing

April web-activity insights

Web-activity data in April points to trading activity being down c7% MOM for Avanza and broadly flat for Nordnet. Based on this, we see upside to consensus Q2 brokerage income for both companies. The platforms are due to release their April statistics on 6 May.

Valuation fair given decelerating growth

Transaction income saved the day in Q1'24. EPS raised 1-3% for 2024-26e. Flat earnings growth in H2'24e for 12m fwd P/E of 18x – HOLD.

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK220.00) - Higher activity swelling margins

Increased customer activity and the related boost to the brokerage margin helped Nordnet to record-high revenues and earnings in Q1. We have raised our 2024–2026e EPS by 5–9% and our target price to SEK220 (212). We still like the outlook for profitable growth in the Nordic savings market, and Nordnet’s 2025e P/E of c19x. We reiterate our BUY.

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK212.00) - Encouraging growth trends

Nordnet enjoyed rising net inflows and accelerated customer growth in Q1, likely aided by a positive stock-market performance and recovering household sentiment. We have raised our 2024–2026e EPS by 2–6%, and our target price to SEK212 (190). We continue to see good value in the stock with a 2025e P/E below 20x, given attractive prospects for profitable growth in the Nordic savings markets, and reiterate our BUY.

February web-activity insights

Web-activity data in February points to trading activity being up c10% MOM for Avanza and c4% for Nordnet. Looking at consensus Q1 brokerage income, the data appears balanced for Avanza, but suggests some downside risk for Nordnet. The platforms are due to release their February statistics on 5 March.

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK190.00) - Push to restore customer growth

We have cut our 2024–2025e EPS by 2-5% partly on higher costs, as Nordnet intends to up its marketing spend to restore customer growth to within its 10–15% target. However, we reiterate our BUY and SEK190 target price, as we still find the outlook for profitable growth in the Nordic savings market attractive, at an undemanding value of just c15-17x P/E for 2024-2025e.

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK190.00) - Lowered NII prospects

Lower interest rate expectations and negative deposit volume trends in Q4 have hit Nordnet’s NII outlook for the next two years, prompting us to cut our 2024–2025e EPS by 4–9%, and our target price to SEK190 (201). We saw several encouraging signs towards the end of Q4, however, with stabilising deposit volumes and rising customer activity in December. We continue to see good value in the stock at a 2024e P/E of 15x, given attractive prospects for long-term profitable growth in the Nordic saving...

November web-activity insights

Web-activity data in November points to trading activity being roughly unchanged MOM for Avanza and up 5–10% for Nordnet. Looking at consensus Q4 brokerage income, the November data suggests c15% downside risk for Avanza, with some potential upside for Nordnet. The platforms are due to release their November statistics on 5 December.

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK201.00) - Polishing NII

We look favourably on the potential divestment of the consumer lending business, which was announced with the Q3 results, as we believe this would further crystallise Nordnet’s low-risk banking model and support multiples expansion. We have raised 2024e adj. EPS by c3% and see c10% upside potential to the most recent consensus for 2024 earnings. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK201 (198).

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK198.00) - Growth SAVEd by the NII

Growth SAVEd by the NII

September web-activity insights

Web-activity data in September points to trading activity down c5% MOM for Avanza and roughly flat for Nordnet. This is in line with the platforms’ respective historical seasonality patterns. We see c15% potential downside risk to current consensus Q3 brokerage income for Avanza. The platforms are due to release their September statistics on 4 October.

Northern Lights

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK193.00) - Commissions cooling down

We have cut our 2023–2025e EPS by c4% and our target price to SEK193 (200) on negative takeaways for brokerage and fund fee trends in the Q2 report. However, at 2023–2025e P/Es of 15–16x, the stock is trading at a significant discount to historical multiples and is attractive in our view given the outlook for continued profitable growth. We reiterate our BUY.

Northern Lights

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK200.00) - Buoyed by rising rates

While customer activity fell in Q2, NII tailwinds from rising interest rates coupled with low deposit pass-through still suggest attractive average annual earnings growth of c30% for 2023–2024e. We have cut our 2023-2025e average EPS by c3% for 2023e and trimmed our target price to SEK200 (206). At 2023–2025e P/Es of 12–14x, the stock is trading at large discounts to historical multiples and is attractive in our view given the outlook for continued profitable growth. We reiterate our BUY.

June web-activity insights

Web-activity data so far in June points to trading activity being up c10% MOM for both Avanza and Nordnet. This is despite negative historical seasonality patterns in June. Given this, consensus brokerage income in Q2e looks reasonable for both platforms. The platforms are due to release their June statistics on 5 July.

Swedish Small - caps - summer 2023

Swedish Small - caps - summer 2023

May web-activity insights

Web-activity data so far in May points to trading activity being flat or down a few percent MOM for Avanza and Nordnet, roughly in line with historical seasonality patterns in May. We see downside risk to consensus brokerage income for both platforms in Q2. The platforms are due to release their May statistics on 5 June.

April web-activity insights

Web-activity data so far in April points to trading activity being down 6–10% MOM for Avanza and Nordnet. This slightly soft start to Q2 and fewer trading days suggest Avanza’s brokerage income could drop more than consensus of -10% QOQ in Q2. However, we expect Avanza’s net interest income (NII) growth to accelerate significantly in Q2, after falling slightly QOQ in Q1, helping to buoy earnings growth in 2023e. The platforms are due to release their April statistics on 4 May.