February web-activity insights

Web-activity data points to trading activity up 2–5% MOM for Avanza and Nordnet in February, potentially the second-most active month in three years. For Q1e, we see upside potential to Avanza’s and Nordnet’s transaction-related commissions, since activity seems to be holding up better than the consensus view of an imminent rapid normalisation. The platforms are due to release their February statistics on 5 March.

Awaiting a better entry

SSAB (Buy, TP: SEK82.00) - Sweet spot exposure

With the stock priced at a 2025–2026e P/E of c9–7x, and SSAB’s net cash position of SEK18/share, it might appear the market expects an earnings deterioration and/or poor capital allocation into transformational investments. However, given SSAB’s strong market positions in Speciality steel, underpinned by convincing mega-trends and strong ‘local-to-local’ businesses for both Europe and the US, we disagree with this view. We have raised our target price to SEK82 (65) on significantly increased 2025 forecasts, and reiterate our BUY.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) the Wallenberg sphere announced new roles for members of the sixth generation, including on the board of Investor; 2) following serial acquirer Röko’s IPO this week, we highlight the attractive valuation of Latour’s unlisted assets; and 3) as the dividend season approaches, we note the seasonal contraction of NAV discounts.

Systemair (Hold, TP: SEK90.00) - Margin volatility

After updating our model for the weaker Q3 results than forecast, we have reduced our 2024/25–2026/27e adj. EBIT by c9% on average as we expect lower profitability. We have cut our target price to SEK90 (105) and reiterate our HOLD on limited upside potential. While we expect improving organic growth, we have low confidence in the margin target (10% on EBIT) due to the margin volatility, and find the valuation fair.