Report
Guy Sips ...
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Livio Luyten
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi

Dynamic Top Pick List Update March 2026: Removing Aedifica – Adding Proximus

The tariff war between US and China has eased, but with the Iran conflict and an erratic Trump, uncertainty will continue into 2027. Energy prices have gone ballistic, with gas prices doubling in Europe and has hit the cyclical stocks hard. The highly anticipated AI productivity gains also will have to transpire sooner or later or a US market correction becomes unavoidable. While the macro-economic impact has been limited so far, a prolonged uncertain situation will result in economic damage. We continue our defensive stance in our Benelux Dynamic Top Pick List. The Federal Reserve (FED) will likely continue its easing cycle, but the final amount of interest rate cuts remains uncertain. The European Central Bank (ECB) has now largely completed its interest rate cutting cycle. The European industry has a silver lining with the German investment program in infrastructure and defense. We still anticipate slow economic growth in Europe (1.2%) and Benelux (1.0-1.1%) over the next 12 months. The valuations of the stocks in our Dynamic Top Pick List remain extremely low compared to US momentum stocks.

Today we include Proximus in our Dynamic Top Pick List as on its CMD they confirmed their 2026–2028 ambitions and a 2030 FCF target, but the unexpected dividend cut from €0.60 to €0.30 caused a sharp intraday share drop. We view the cut as logical given fibre-related cash pressure and do not see it affecting valuation. The new €0.30 dividend should be a floor, with room to rise again as fibre capex declines toward completion in 2030, lifting FCF to about €400m. The fibre rollout has strengthened Proximus' fixed network, supporting broadband share gains and domestic EBITDA growth, while Digi's mobile impact remains limited. Weakness in the Global division continues to overshadow the solid Domestic business, but we believe this is largely priced in. The new CEO acknowledged Proximus may not be the best long-term owner of Global, and a future divestment could act as a share-price catalyst.

On 18 February we already removed Aedifica from our Dynamic Top Pick List after we updated our model after the FY25 results. We now factor in a slightly higher debt ratio at similar FY26 EPRA EPS estimates based on the € 300,0m newly guided investments (acquisitions + developments) which are skewed to 2H26. This benefits mostly our FY27-28 rental income. The Armonea (Colisée) negotiations (7,0% combined merged total rents) are terminated with limited negative rent reversion impact included in the FY26 guidance. This results in a lower risk premium and a higher target price from € 78,0 to € 81,0. Since we upgraded Aedifica early November from Hold to Buy, it outperformed the EPRA developed index by 15,1%. However we see less upside to our € 81,0 fair value than before so we did cut on 18 February our recommendation from Buy to Accumulate and removed Aedifica from our Dynamic Top Pick List.

After these changes, we maintain a balanced approach in our Dynamic Top Pick List, with a particular emphasis on value stocks that have been overlooked. Our defensive holdings are overweight, including real estate, which stands to benefit from lower interest rates.
In our Benelux selection, we have now a 40% exposure to cyclical industrials at attractive valuations, which have often underperformed the market. The technology sector holds a 7% weight in our portfolio. We've observed that some stocks have been significantly impacted by minor setbacks, but these may prove to be more resilient over FY26 as investors seek out undervalued opportunities.
Underlyings
Aedifica SA

Aedifica is a property company, which is specialized in residential real estate. Co.'s portfolio has a superstructure of more than 225,911 sq. m as of June 30 2010. It owns: residential or mixed buildings in Belgian cities with classical leases; buildings with furnished apartments buildings in the heart of Brussels with shorter term leases; senior houses and serviceflats with very long term and triple net leases; and hotels. Co. invests: in existing and already leased buildings; and in projects with future completion. Co.'s activities can be divided into four segments: Residential or mixed buildings; Furnished apartments buildings; Senior houses; and Hotels and others.

Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV

Anheuser-Busch Inbev is engaged in the brewing of beer. Co. manages a portfolio of well over 200 brands that includes brands such as Budweiser, Stella Artois and Beck's; multi-country brands such as Leffe and Hoegaarden; and other brands such as Bud Light, Skol, Brahma, Quilmes, Michelob, Harbin, Sedrin, Klinskoye, Sibirskaya Korona, Chernigivske and Jupiler. Co. also produces and distributes soft drinks, particularly in Latin America. Co.'s operations are organized along seven business segments: North America, Mexico, Latin America North, Latin America South, Europe, Asia Pacific and Global Export & Holding Companies.

ArGEN-X SE

Argenx N.V. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing a deep pipeline of differentiated antibody-based therapies for the treatment of severe autoimmune diseases and cancer. Utilizing its suite of differentiated technologies, Co. is focused on developing product candidates with the potential to be either first-in-class against novel targets or best-in-class against known, but complex, targets in order to treat diseases with a significant unmet medical need.

AZELIS GROUP NV

Corbion NV

Corbion is an internationally operating company engaged in the development, production, sale and distribution of bakery supplies and food ingredients. Co. is engaged in the Bakery Supplies and Lactic Acid business. Co.'s operations are divided into two segments: Bakery operations and Lactic acid operations. Co.'s Bakery operations comprise the development, production and sale of bakery ingredients and products. Co.'s Lactic acid operations involve the production of lactic acid and lactic acid derivatives which are used in food, pharmaceutical and technical products. Co. operates mostly in Europe and North America. Co.'s brands are Waldkorn, Kate's cakes, Purac, Carel, MeisterMarken.

D'Ieteren SA

D'Ieteren is engaged in two sectors of services to the motorist: Automobile Distribution, which is a distributor of Volkswagen, Audi, Seat, Skoda, Bentley, Lamborghini, Bugatti, Porsche, and Yamaha brands in Belgium; and Vehicle Glass, which is engaged in the repair and replacement of vehicle glass mainly in Europe, North and South America, Australia and New Zealand through Belron s.a. and notably its CARGLASS®, AUTOGLASS® and SAFELITE® AUTO GLASS brands.

DEME GROUP NV

EVS Broadcast Equipment SA

EVS Broadcasting Equipment is engaged in the development and marketing of audiovisual equipment relating to the processing of pictures and sound. Co. provides solutions based on tapeless workflows with a consistent modular architecture. Co.'s activities are divided into the following regions: Asia-Pacific, Europe, Middle East and Africa, and America.

Ion Beam Applications SA

IBA- Ion Beam Applications develops and markets technologies and pharmaceutical products for the healthcare sector, with a focus on cancer diagnosis and therapy. Co. is also engaged in the sterilization and ionization market. Co. operates in two primary business segments: Equipment and Pharmaceuticals. Co.'s Equipment segment encompasses development, fabrication, and services associated with medical and industrial particle accelerators, proton therapy systems, and a range of dosimetry products, while Co.'s Pharmaceuticals segment encompasses the production and distribution of radiopharmaceutical agents as well as its bioassay operations.

Proximus SA de droit public

Proximus supplies integrated telecommunications services on the Belgian market. Co.'s activities are divided into four segments: Consumer Business Unit (CBU), which sells voice products and services, internet and television, on fixed and mobile networks, to residential customers; Enterprise Business Unit (EBU), which caters to professional customers; Service Delivery Engine and Wholesale, which centralizes all the network and IT services and costs, provides services to CBU and EBU and sells these services to other telecom and cable operators; and International Carrier Services, which focuses on international carrier activities.

Royal Vopak NV

Royal Vopak is a holding company. Via its subsidiaries, Co. acts as a tank storage provider for the oil and chemical industry. Co. operates a network of terminals located at locations along trade routes. Co. also provides a range of additional services, from loading and unloading a range of transport modalities to heating, cooling, blending and customs formalities. The customers Co. serves range from global to local clients and include national and global producers, governments, distributors and traders of liquid and gaseous bulk products. Co.'s customers are active in the production, trading and marketing of oil products, chemicals, gases, biofuels, edible oils and liquefied natural gas.

SHURGARD SELF STORAGE LIMITED

Sofina SA

SOFINA is an investment company whose portfolio consists of shareholdings in various companies. Co. manages a portfolio of long-term and short-term investments. Its portfolio comprises investments in companies which are active in sectors such as: Energy and Services (GDF Suez, Suez Environnement, bioMerieux and Exmar); Retail (Colruyt, Delhaize); Consumer goods (Danone, Rapala, B & W Group, and Chapoutier); Satellite operators (SES); Finance Companies (Eurazeo, Caledonia, Luxempart, RAB Capital); Industry (Petit Forestier, Landis + Gyr, Carbone Lorraine and Deceuninck) and Alternative assets (Private equity, Hedge funds).

UCB S.A.

UCB is a global biopharmaceutical company focused on severe diseases in two therapeutic areas, namely central nervous system disorders and immunology. In the area of central nervous system disorders, Co. is focused on advanced Parkinson's disease, epilepsy, restless legs syndrome and epilepsy. In the area of immunology disorders, Co. is focused on rheumatoid arthritis, axial spondyloarthritis, psoriatic arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, juvenile idiopathic arthritis, post-menopausal osteoporosis, systemic lupus erythematosus and immunological diseases.

Warehouses De Pauw SCA

Warehouses De Pauw and its subsidiaries are engaged in investment in the Belgian semi-industrial property market. Co. is a closed-end property investment company which specializes in: development of storage and distribution premises; customized projects in line with the user's request; acquiring premises for customers who wish to engage in sale and leaseback transactions.

Wolters Kluwer NV

Wolters Kluwer operates through four divisions: Health is a global provider of information for medical and health professionals; Financial & Compliance Services is a U.S. provider risk management, compliance, finance, and audit professionals the services they need to optimize risk and business performance, and ensure compliance with local, regional, and global regulation; Tax & Accounting is a provider of tax, accounting, and audit information, and services; and Legal & Regulatory provides customers with expert content, software, and services in the areas of law, business, and regulatory compliance in Europe, North America and Asia Pacific.

Provider
KBC Securities
KBC Securities

We are a financial services provider for several types of professional clients, each with distinct needs.

 

Analysts
Guy Sips

Jacob Mekhael

Kristof Samoy

Livio Luyten

Lynn Hautekeete

Michiel Declercq

Thibault Leneeuw

Thomas Couvreur

Wim Hoste

Wim Lewi

Other Reports on these Companies
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  • Kristof Samoy
  • Livio Luyten
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi

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