Report
Guy Sips ...
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Livio Luyten
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi

Dynamic Top Pick List Update November: Removing Xior; Adding Aedifica

The tariff war has eased, but with Trump, uncertainty has become a guarantee. While the macro-economic impact has been limited so far, the prolonged situation could still result in significant and long-lasting economic damage. We are maintaining a defensive stance in our Benelux Dynamic Top Pick List. The Federal Reserve (FED) has started its easing cycle, but the final amount of interest rate cuts is uncertain. The European Central Bank (ECB) has now largely completed its interest rate cutting cycle. Pessimism regarding the European industry has significantly increased due to the tariff risks, although some European companies with a US base could benefit from the situation. We still anticipate slow economic growth in Europe (1.2%) and Benelux over the next 12 months, as it takes time for lower interest rates to impact the economy. Overall, a relatively defensive stance in the portfolio is warranted. The valuations of the stocks in our Dynamic Top Pick List remain extremely low compared to US momentum stocks.

In this November update of our Dynamic Top Pick List we are removing Xior while adding Aedifica.

Since its recent inclusion in our Dynamic Top Pick List, Xior shares lost 10.6%. While we still believe there is significant upside to the share price, we don't see short term catalysts. At this moment, we prefer to add Aedifica vs. Xior, so it is a relative call. As the DTPL has already a position in Shurgard and WDP, we do not want to increase the relative high % of real estate in the DTPL. For the last couple of years, the market favors high beta names over defensive names like real-estate (despite macro risks). In case this trend reverses, real estate will outperform the broader market.

We include Aedifica in our Dynamic Top Pick List, ahead of the competition authorities approval expected mid-January. As the visibility on the timeline has improved last week, we believe investors will start to take position. On a fundamental basis, factoring in the merger, the stock has 23.0% upside to its fair value of €78.0 at 14x forward EPRA EPS (pro forma 100.0% consolidated, FY26 including synergies, excluding restructuring one-offs).

After these changes, we maintain a balanced approach in our Dynamic Top Pick List, featuring 8 cyclical and 6 defensive stocks, with a particular emphasis on value stocks that have been overlooked. Our defensive holdings are overweight, including real estate, which stands to benefit from lower interest rates.

In our Benelux selection, we have a 36% exposure to cyclical industrials at attractive valuations, which have often underperformed the market. The technology sector holds a 7% weight in our portfolio. We've observed that some stocks have been significantly impacted by minor setbacks, but these may prove to be more resilient over FY25 as investors seek out undervalued opportunities.
Underlyings
Aedifica SA

Aedifica is a property company, which is specialized in residential real estate. Co.'s portfolio has a superstructure of more than 225,911 sq. m as of June 30 2010. It owns: residential or mixed buildings in Belgian cities with classical leases; buildings with furnished apartments buildings in the heart of Brussels with shorter term leases; senior houses and serviceflats with very long term and triple net leases; and hotels. Co. invests: in existing and already leased buildings; and in projects with future completion. Co.'s activities can be divided into four segments: Residential or mixed buildings; Furnished apartments buildings; Senior houses; and Hotels and others.

Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV

Anheuser-Busch Inbev is engaged in the brewing of beer. Co. manages a portfolio of well over 200 brands that includes brands such as Budweiser, Stella Artois and Beck's; multi-country brands such as Leffe and Hoegaarden; and other brands such as Bud Light, Skol, Brahma, Quilmes, Michelob, Harbin, Sedrin, Klinskoye, Sibirskaya Korona, Chernigivske and Jupiler. Co. also produces and distributes soft drinks, particularly in Latin America. Co.'s operations are organized along seven business segments: North America, Mexico, Latin America North, Latin America South, Europe, Asia Pacific and Global Export & Holding Companies.

AZELIS GROUP NV

Bekaert SA

Bekaert is a global technological and market company engaged in advanced solutions based in steel wire transformation and coatings as well as an independent manufacturer of drawn steel wire products. In addition, Co. teams up with customers and suppliers globally to develop, implement, upgrade, and protect both current and future technologies. Co.'s business activities are put in practice along two main axes: Product Innovation and Process Innovation. Product Innovation helps Co. better serve its customers, while Process innovation enables Co. to increase operational effectiveness, minimizing its impact on the environment.

D'Ieteren SA

D'Ieteren is engaged in two sectors of services to the motorist: Automobile Distribution, which is a distributor of Volkswagen, Audi, Seat, Skoda, Bentley, Lamborghini, Bugatti, Porsche, and Yamaha brands in Belgium; and Vehicle Glass, which is engaged in the repair and replacement of vehicle glass mainly in Europe, North and South America, Australia and New Zealand through Belron s.a. and notably its CARGLASS®, AUTOGLASS® and SAFELITE® AUTO GLASS brands.

DEME GROUP NV

EVS Broadcast Equipment SA

EVS Broadcasting Equipment is engaged in the development and marketing of audiovisual equipment relating to the processing of pictures and sound. Co. provides solutions based on tapeless workflows with a consistent modular architecture. Co.'s activities are divided into the following regions: Asia-Pacific, Europe, Middle East and Africa, and America.

EXOR N.V.

Kinepolis Group NV

Kinepolis Group NV is a Belgium-based company, which is primarily engaged in the operation of cinemas. The Company's activities are divided into such business units, as Box office, In-theatre sales, Business-to-business (B2B), Film distribution and Real Estate. The Box office unit includes sale of the tickets. The In-theatre sales unit is involved in the sale of snacks and related articles. The B2B unit takes care of the organization of corporate events and the sale of screen advertizing to corporate customers. The Film distribution unit includes all activities related to movies showed in the cinema. The Real Estate is responsible for the property management and utilization. Additionally, the Company has a Technical department, which delivers technological support to Kinepolis facilities. The Company is present in Belgium, France, Spain and Poland.

Royal Vopak NV

Royal Vopak is a holding company. Via its subsidiaries, Co. acts as a tank storage provider for the oil and chemical industry. Co. operates a network of terminals located at locations along trade routes. Co. also provides a range of additional services, from loading and unloading a range of transport modalities to heating, cooling, blending and customs formalities. The customers Co. serves range from global to local clients and include national and global producers, governments, distributors and traders of liquid and gaseous bulk products. Co.'s customers are active in the production, trading and marketing of oil products, chemicals, gases, biofuels, edible oils and liquefied natural gas.

Sofina SA

SOFINA is an investment company whose portfolio consists of shareholdings in various companies. Co. manages a portfolio of long-term and short-term investments. Its portfolio comprises investments in companies which are active in sectors such as: Energy and Services (GDF Suez, Suez Environnement, bioMerieux and Exmar); Retail (Colruyt, Delhaize); Consumer goods (Danone, Rapala, B & W Group, and Chapoutier); Satellite operators (SES); Finance Companies (Eurazeo, Caledonia, Luxempart, RAB Capital); Industry (Petit Forestier, Landis + Gyr, Carbone Lorraine and Deceuninck) and Alternative assets (Private equity, Hedge funds).

Warehouses De Pauw SCA

Warehouses De Pauw and its subsidiaries are engaged in investment in the Belgian semi-industrial property market. Co. is a closed-end property investment company which specializes in: development of storage and distribution premises; customized projects in line with the user's request; acquiring premises for customers who wish to engage in sale and leaseback transactions.

Wolters Kluwer NV

Wolters Kluwer operates through four divisions: Health is a global provider of information for medical and health professionals; Financial & Compliance Services is a U.S. provider risk management, compliance, finance, and audit professionals the services they need to optimize risk and business performance, and ensure compliance with local, regional, and global regulation; Tax & Accounting is a provider of tax, accounting, and audit information, and services; and Legal & Regulatory provides customers with expert content, software, and services in the areas of law, business, and regulatory compliance in Europe, North America and Asia Pacific.

Xior Student Housing N.V.

Xior Student Housing NV is a Belgium-based company active in the field of residential Real Estate. The Company's offer is mainly for students and it includes several types of rooms for rent, including a student house in Leiden.

Provider
KBC Securities
KBC Securities

We are a financial services provider for several types of professional clients, each with distinct needs.

 

Analysts
Guy Sips

Kristof Samoy

Livio Luyten

Michiel Declercq

Thibault Leneeuw

Thomas Couvreur

Wim Hoste

Wim Lewi

Other Reports on these Companies
Other Reports from KBC Securities

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch