Ascencio 3Q25 trading update: results bang in line
Ascencio reports its 3Q25 trading update (June-end) in line with our estimates. The dividend guidance of at least €4.30 is repeated. We believe an increase to €4.40 over the FY25 result is likely. In 1H25, Ascencio flagged a tougher retail market with the Casa and Cora restructuring. There are also some recent headlines on Krefel which represents 1.9% of the contractual rents (no direct impact). The fair value of the portfolio is flat which is in contrast with other quoted retail RE peers. We don't believe there is a risk for the dividend given the low payout ratio and EPRA earnings above our estimates. The high dividend yield is the key reason to invest in the stock for many of its shareholders. Still, the negative headlines can weigh on the story. Hold recommendation repeated.Ascencio SCA is a Belgium-based real estate investment company. Its investments are mainly focused on properties in the retail and warehouses sector and the food industry in Belgium and France. The majority of its holdings are situated in Wallonia Region of Belgium, also in Flanders, in Brussels and in France. The Company's clients include Carrefour, Champion, Decathlon, Delhaize and others. Ascencio SCA has several wholly owned subsidiaries, such as Etudibel SA, SCI Candice Brives, SCI Echirolles Grugliasco, SCI Harfleur 2005, SCI Kevin, SCI La Pierre de l'Isle, SCI Mas des Abeilles, SCI ZTF Essey les Nancy, SCI Cannet Jourdan, SCI De La Cote, SCI Du Rond Point, SCI Seynod Barral, SCI Clermont Saint Jean and Les Papeteries de Genval , among others.
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