Care Property Invest Model update: Apricusa bankruptcy results in outlook below consensus
Care Property Invest reports FY25 in line with its 3Q25 guidance. In line with previous quarters there was a negative leasing spread (-1.08%), but the EPRA cost ratio further improved to 15.6% (+110bps). The FY26 outlook of € 1.07 EPRA EPS is below our expectations (€ 1.09) and below the € 1.11 consensus estimates. The difference is driven by the Apricusa bankruptcy announced early January (- € 0.02 EPRA EPS impact), lower than expected indexation forecasts (i.e. 1.3% for BE) and rent cuts/provisions for Belgian operators (Armonea/Orélia). We upgraded Care Property after the capital increase from Hold to Accumulate resulting in a 9.3% EPRA index outperformance as the whole of healthcare outperformed. To reflect the lower than expected outlook we have cut our rating from Accumulate to Hold yesterday at a lower TP of € 14 to € 13.5.Care Property Invest NV. Care Property Invest NV, formerly Serviceflats Invest NV, is a Belgium-based real estate investment company that builds and finances housing for pensioners. The Company specializes in premises equipped with technologies ensuring safety and comfort of elderly people. In addition, Care Property Invest designs, builds, supervises the progress of a number of construction works, monitors the budget and finances projects in the long term. Care Property Invest NV cooperates mainly for public health care center in Antwerp -Openbaar Centrum voor Maatschappelijk Welziijn (OCMW), including Berchem. The Company focuses its activities on the Belgian market. It operates through a number of subsidiaries, such as Ter Bleuk NV, Siger SA and Konli BVBA and VSP Wolvertem bvba.
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