Bois Sauvage A Bitter Past With A Sweet Future

Bois Sauvage's Chocolate Group has delivered consistent results over the last years. In FY24, sales were up 6.7% to €283.6m and EBITDA rose 11.6% to €68.2m. This despite cocoa and butter price pressures. We forecast an uptick in fair value for the division, driven by the continued sales growth. In addition, topping out cocoa prices offer a catalyst for improved margins in FY27. The stake in Berenberg's commission driven business is expected to grow as well, supported by expanding sector multiples. Listed assets returned ~22.5% assuming no change in positions, boosting the Group's NAV. However, real estate may see a decline in fair value due to difficult markets in Brussels and Paris. For 1H25, we forecast a 5.9% NAV increase for the Group to €851.2m from €808.7m at FY24-end. Despite a 52% NAV discount from past trust issues, Bois Sauvage's focus on chocolates, an increasing dividend and continuing share buybacks signal upside. We change our rating from HOLD to ACC and maintain our €310 target price.