GBL FY24: Flat NAV, Leadership Change & Progress Made On Mid-Term Targets

During FY24, NAVps remained flat at €113.3 (vs €113.6 at FY23-end), mainly dragged down by declines amongst listed assets. Mgmt. has made progress towards delivering double-digit TSR during the medium term. During Mar'25, GBL reduced its stake in SGS to 14.6%, generating proceeds to €0.8b of which €0.2b was cap gain. Prior to this, the stake in Adidas was also reduced from 7.6% to 3.5%. Proceeds from these divestments will be used to pay out a €5.0ps dividend (+80% YoY), which is expected to grow thereafter. Valuations of Affidea and Sanoptis grew by 24% and 17% to ~€1.5b and ~€970.0m. Canyon's valuation was marked down by 43% due to muted rev. growth (excess supply & aggressive discounting) and margin pressure. Overall, private assets posted a healthy top-line growth of 13% and EBITDA growth of 22%, driven by Affidea (47%). We think the appointment of Johannes Huth, a PE veteran, comes at the right time as GBL aims to transform its portfolio from being majority listed to majority private. We currently estimate NAVps and TEVps to be €116.6 and €132.6, implying discounts of ~42% and ~49%. After applying a 35% discount to our TEVps of €132.6, we reiterate our BUY rating but lower our TP from €100.0 to €86.0, implying an attractive upside of 25%+.