Solvay FIRST LOOK: 4Q25 soft but in line with consensus, cautious FY26 outlook
4Q uEBITDA dropped by c. 30% organ. and was in line with CSS and c. 5% below our forecast. FY26 uEBITDA guidance of € 770-850m represents a 4-13% y/y decline and is at midpoint c. 2% below consensus and 7% below our forecast. The dividend policy (stable to increasing from a € 2.43 base) looks increasingly generous as the FY26 FCF will not be enough to service the dividend and will hence push up leverage from the current 1.8x. Despite the attractive dividend yield (c 9%), the tough market conditions for soda ash & Coatis and the weakening balance sheet prompt us to become more cautious, so we downgrade from Accumulate to Hold with TP revised from € 30 to € 27.Solvay is engaged in chemical and plastic businesses worldwide. Co. offers chemical products such as advanced materials, barium strontium, calcium chloride, caustic soda, chlorinated products, fluor, peroxygen products, polyglycerols, precipitated calcium carbonate, soda ash, and sodium bicarbonate. It also provides specialty polymers, such as Spire ultra polymers, Solviva biomaterials, and sulfone polymers. Co. structures its activities around five operating segments: Advanced Formulations, Advanced Materials, Performance Chemicals, Functional Polymers and Corporate & Business Services, each with its own specific business model and each comprised of Global Business Units (GBUs).
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