US Rates Technical Chartbook - October 2025

I am pleased to introduce our new US Rates Technical Chartbook.  In this periodic piece, I will provide some technical analysis for the US Treasury benchmarks, select curves, 10yr swap spreads, and other areas of the market that may be in focus.  Market participants have a wide variety of views regarding technicals.  For me, technicals are a visual representation of where investors value an asset and have exchanged capital for that asset.  They are useful to help refine entry, exit, and stop loss levels, and are especially powerful when they align with one's overall fundamental view - I start ...

Impact of France’s political crisis on credit

·       In the midst of a renewed and strengthened political crisis in France, what have we seen in the credit market recently ?·    1/ Financials have been more hit (once again) than corporates, confirming our call that sensitivity of the former to OAT-Bund is 2x as much as the one of the latter·  2/ French AT1s have widened by almost 18bp vs swap in 3 days, largely underperforming their index (20bp underperformance had been seen in June 2024)… mainly due to equity correlations·   3/ RT1s have hardly reacted so far, which put them at risk keeping in mind the June 2024 movement (although disso...

フランス：政府崩壊後の Q&A