Where do we stand with RMB internationalization? The role of capital f...

From the $1 trillion trade surplus to renewed overseas investment, China's capital flows and the RMB have once again become the focus for global investors and policymakers. Beyond the much-discussed issue of capital controls, the interrelated factors in the evolution of export competitiveness, geopolitical competition, and RMB internationalization will be areas of change in the future, with economic implications for China and the world. In this report, we present our revamped China Capital Flow ...

イタリア：国民投票否決、メローニ首相にとって初の打撃

How Beijing Turned an Oil Shock into a Strategic Opportunity

Washington likely assumed it could choke off cheap Iranian oil to Beijing the same way it managed with Venezuela — sanctions, shipping pressure, and financial arm-twisting that reduced Caracas's discounted crude to a trickle. The logic seemed replicable. It was also wrong.Iran is not Venezuela. The Islamic Republic has spent decades building one of the most sophisticated sanctions-evasion networks in the world — hundreds of shadow tankers, fake shipping signals, front companies across dozens of ...

3 月米国債需給アップデート

フランスの地方選挙：結果から読み取るべき要点

Italy: Referendum rejected, first setback for Meloni

The constitutional referendum held on 22 - 23 March 2026 forms part of Italy’s constitutional revision procedure. Backed by the government of Giorgia Meloni, the reform takes place within a long-standing debate over the balance between political power and the judiciary, characterised by recurring tensions since the 1990s. The vote was also held in a context of relative political stability, with the Meloni government in office since 2022—an unprecedented duration for Italy since the late 2010s—th...

Natixis US Rates Technical Chartbook - March 24 2026

While the war and macro fundamentals will still dominate, certain key levels have come into play and have shown their significance.  Please see the chartbook for more regarding yields, curve, inflation, swap spreads, and this week's Chart of the Week on cash 2s5s10s.John BriggsHead of US Rates Strategy

[Presentation] RMB Internationalization Monitor: Less for payments and...

The RMB has performed unevenly in terms of internationalization.RMB’s use as a reserve and investment currency faltered due to lower interest return and depreciation pressure.Meanwhile, RMB financing has grown rapidly thanks to lower funding cost and policy support.China’s strength in trade also supported international payments in RMB, especially trade finance.Hong Kong is playing a bigger role in the RMB FX market, with banks collectively supporting the USDCNH exchange rate during 2023 to 2025....

Italie : Rejet du référendum, premier revers pour Meloni

Le référendum constitutionnel organisé les 22-23 mars 2026 s’inscrit dans la procédure italienne de révision constitutionnelle . Portée par le gouvernement de Giorgia Meloni, la réforme intervient dans un débat de long terme sur l’équilibre entre pouvoir politique et magistrature, marqué par des tensions récurrentes depuis les années 1990. Le scrutin s’est tenu par ailleurs dans un contexte de relative stabilité politique, le gouvernement Meloni étant en place depuis 2022 (une séquence inédi...

Euro Area: March flash PMIs are signalling stagflation risks

In March, the Euro Area flash composite PMI index dropped from 51.9 to 50.5 , a 10 -month low ( chart 1 ) and below expectations (51.0) . Looking at the subcomponents, new orders fell to 4 8 .9 from 51.0, a 15-month low, future output expectations decreased to 56.7 from 61.0 ( chart 2 ) . Notably, the input cost inflation accelerated sharply to 65.5 from 59 following the conflict in the Middle East , the fastest pace i n just over three years. On the one hand, the Services index dec...

中国の内巻：労働市場の悪化が如何に内需を空洞化させるのか

No Sign of Tension Easing and Markets Worsening

Conflict update:As the war enters its fourth week, infrastructure brinkmanship has sharply intensified following a 48-hour US ultimatum to strike Iranian power plants unless the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. Tehran has rejected the deadline, with the IRGC countering with threats to expand strikes targeting regional energy assets, and even US technology nodes globally. Meanwhile, with Hezbollah formally opening a new military front, multi-theatre disruption to global energy markets and critical s...

French Municipal Elections: Key Takeaways

French municipal and community council elections took place on March 15 (first round) and 22 (second round). Although m unicipal elections in France are primarily driven by local issues with limited national resonance , some dynamics provide useful signals in the run-up to the presidential elections scheduled for April-May 2027 (see also French Municipal Elections on March 15th and 22nd: A Template for the Presidential Election? ). The results confirm: T he left's hold on major citi...

Rates Weekly: Temporary Shock or Not?

EUR rates - Recap of the week: EUR rates remained under strong pressure this week as the escalation of the Middle East conflict led to a renewed surge in energy prices and inflation expectations. The front end led the move, with the 2Y Schatz rising toward 2.60% and markets now pricing around 3 hikes for the ECB in 2026. Curves bear-flattened significantly, with 2s10s compressing toward the low-20bp area. Despite the magnitude of the move, long-end yields remained largerly unchanged, while sover...

Resilience or complacency? - Our Weekly Cross-Asset Views

This was the 3rd week of war in Iran and it was again an hectic week with the markets swinging from early week de-escalation hopes to fears that the worst may be happening when Ras Laffan was damaged yesterday and reported that 17% of Qatar’s LNG exports will be gone the next quarters. Brent oil price is stuck well above 100$/bbl (up 5% wtd, touched 119$ yesterday), TTF is up 22% wtd (at 61 €/MWh down from the Thursday high of 72), and risk asset correlation to oil price remains very negative.At...

Germany: February MoF Report Signals Positive Fiscal Impulse in Q1

The February federal government monthly report confirms January’s figures . Over the period January to February, e xpenditure rose sharply, by 9.6 % Y/Y, while revenues fell by 6.5 %. As a result, the fiscal deficit already stands at € 34 bn ( Chart 1 , out of the €94bn or 2% of GDP targeted ) , financed entirely by cash reserves as in January , which have also been used to offset a net borrowing shortfall of €2 6.2 bn. Expenditures totalled € 93.1 bn in January -February . Consu...

伊朗地緣政治緊張局勢對中國經濟的影響（繁）

伊朗地缘政治紧张局势对中国经济的影响（简)

China's Involution: How Deteriorated Labor Market Hollows Out Domestic...

China's deflationary process has received growing attention. The best-known consequence is the squeeze in corporate profits but there is a second one that might end up being as important, if not more. Chinese firms are also slashing labor costs in a desperate battle for market survival. The country's "flexible" labor market basically makes it possible for corporates to reduce labor costs as needed, which is behind the dramatic deceleration in wage growth.This trend is very clear in the data. Ave...

BoE Delivers Unanimous Rate Hold, Prioritising Inflation Concerns

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously, 9-0, to maintain the Bank Rate at 3.75%. This decision was primarily driven by inflation risks stemming from the Middle East war, with some MPC members indicating an increased likelihood of monetary tightening . This outcome was more hawkish than anticipated, as consensus expected a 7-2 vote to maintain the status quo. All MPC members confirmed their readiness to act as necessary to ensure CPI inflation remains on track to meet ...