Rates Weekly: A cautious reopening

EUR rates:Recap of the week: The end of the US shutdown brought more uncertainty than relief, as hawkish Fed comments and missing economic data kept Treasury yields high and equities lower. Eurozone rates followed, with Bund yields rising amid the transatlantic pressure and structural flows from Dutch pension funds. In sovereign spreads, France outperformed on budget optimism while Italy lagged.Tactical view: We turn slightly bearish on duration, awaiting with the new for 10Y Bund around 2.65-2....

The data cliff fear - Our Weekly Cross-Asset Views

After celebrating the end of the longest US shutdown of history early this week, markets have turned risk off the end of the week with US leading the reversal move. WTD, US equity indices consolidate, with techs and small caps down, European  equities outperform (SX5E reached a new all-time highs after 3 daily gains of 1%+), credit spreads are stable, gold surges again and US dollar is down 0.5% across the board.   No specific trigger to this risk-off move, but the view that we are now in a trul...

債券ポートフォリオにおいてダイナミック投資戦略は必要か

UK Budget Outlook: Restoring the Fiscal Buffer Amid Challenges

Investors were caught off guard because the Chancellor was reported as no longer planning to raise the more straightforward and revenue-generating income tax . Yet , we believe that she still has the maneuver to stay on track to meet her fiscal objectives. While some measures might be “harmful”, we still expect the growth prospects to be buoyed by higher public investment that is not included in the measure of fiscal rule of the current budget surplus by 2029-30. Overall, in our view, the con...

高齢貯蓄者の国ではない

Chile Elections : 101 Guide

On Sunday, Chileans will vote for a new president, as well as for all the seats in the lower house and half of the Senate . According to polls, Jeannette Jara , from the Communist Part y representing the center left coalition , and José Antonio Kast , a right-leaning candidate from the Republican Party, are favored to advance to the second round on December 14. It is unlikely that any candidate will receive 50% of the valid votes needed to win the presidency in the first round . Since the...

No Country for Old Savers

America’s older population isn’t just growing—it’s spending. With half of US household wealth now held by those 65 and older, this generation of retirees enters their later years wealthier, more asset-rich, and more willing to spend than their predecessors. Rising interest income, home equity gains, and mandatory withdrawals from retirement accounts are bolstering their balance sheets and fueling discretionary consumption in services like healthcare, travel, and dining out . As a result, older ...

TARGET 2 : ECB の見落とされた遺産

Growth without Profits: Where will China’s Involution End?

China’s economy continues to record robust growth, but beneath the surface lies a persistent deflationary pressure and intensifying corporate competition - often described as economic involution. Using firm-level data from listed companies between 2012 and 2024, this paper jointly estimates markups and total factor productivity (TFP) growth to uncover how firms’ pricing power and efficiency interact.The results reveal a clear divergence: while productivity has improved steadily since the pandemi...

TARGET2 : The ECB's Overlooked Legacy

TARGET 2 is the large-value payments system run at the ECB that (inter alia) facilitates transactions between banks across intra-Euro area national borders. TARGET 2 thus ensures that arbitrage is possible across the constituent national money markets within the Euro area. TARGET 2 balances are thus the consequence of the institutional structure of the Euro area, where NCBs were retained to conduct monetary policy operations at the national level. During the first phases of the financial crisi...

Rates Weekly: Rates market calm despite weakening risk appetite

EUR rates:Recap of the week:   This week, risk appetite declined, leaving risky markets fragile despite easing US-China trade tensions and strong Q3 corporate earnings.  The ongoing US government shutdown is impacting macroeconomic clarity, while mixed labor market signals complicate expectations for the Fed's policy. Consequently, yields rose slightly across both € and $ curves, with the 10-year Bund lagging behind the 10-year US Treasury, influenced by pressure on real rates.  Volatility remai...

Is the party ending ? Our weekly cross-asset views

Risk aversion continued to rise slightly this week as investors navigated increasing macro uncertainty, reduced central banks support, and elevated valuations. Equity markets are closing the week slightly down (with techs underperforming) despite a strong buy-the-dip activity. Traditional safe havens provided low diversification benefits (Treasuries, Gold and DXY are ending the week almost flat). This week, a 60/40 portfolio would have delivered ~-1,4%, marking its second worst week since August...

China's economic self-resilience strategy boosts tech sector

Chinese equities have had a strong year so far. Investor sentiment is buoyed by continuous supportive policies aimed at invigorating China's capital markets, including lower interest rates and measures to attract long-term capital. Given recent jitteriness in the US stock market, especially for tech companies, one wonders whether China may experience a strong correction soon.We argue that several things have changed making a big correction unlikely.What has changed?Push for Tech Sovereignty: The...

Different routes to decarbonisation: EU carbon pricing versus China’s ...

In the run up to the United Nations COP30 climate summit, starting on 10 November in Brazil, the spotlight has fallen on the European Union and China, now the de-facto stewards of global climate diplomacy following the United States’s retreat under President Donald Trump. At an EU-China summit in Beijing in July, the two parties promised to “drive a global just transition”, and to promote success in Brazil. Once the rhetoric is peeled away, however, a paradox emerges.The EU’s and China’s decarbo...

RE Credit Speed Dating - Opening Webinar Presentation

Macro EnvironmentThe European commercial real estate landscape is facing challenges, with rising sovereign bond yields likely to hinder capital value growth.Projections suggest that the 10-year OAT yield may reach 4% by March 2027.CRE Market DynamicsTight property risk premia across sectors, indicating limited potential for capital value growth in the near term. Investment volumes for Q3-25 show a recovery, particularly in Spain and Germany, but overall growth remains softer than anticipated.Pro...

BoE Maintains Rates, but Voting Split is More Dovish than Expected

Th e Bank of England voted to maintain its Bank Rate at 4.00%. Four MPC members who supported keeping rates unchanged in August continued to favo u r the status quo, while more dovish members—Swati Dhingra, Dave Ramsden, and Alan Taylor—advocated for a rate cut. Additionally, the more neutral Sarah Breeden voted to lower interest rates, while Governor Andrew Bailey moved away from his previous preference for quarterly cuts. The narrow 5-4 voting split, which was less than the anticipated 6-3...

What can Europe learn from China’s critical-tech innovation push?

This Policy Brief examines China’s rapid ascent in frontier innovation across artificial intelligence, semiconductors and quantum computing, and the most important companies behind these breakthroughs. In these three areas, the United States leads overall, but China continues to narrow the gap and now excels in areas including semiconductor fabrication, AI video and audio processing and aerial vision. China lags the most in quantum computing. The European Union lags significantly behind both the...

Global Forex Monitor - November 2025

October saw the US dollar extend its rebound and volatility decline against the backdrop of the US government shutdown. Strong US quarterly corporate earnings, which drove stock markets to new highs, likely contributed to the currency's strength. Similarly, the Fed's somewhat hawkish stance, which means a cut in key interest rates in December is not a done deal, also supported the currency by lessening expectations of a rate cut in December to just 16bp. The easing of US/China trade tensions als...

Global Forex Monitor - Novembre 2025

Le mois d’octobre a été marqué par la poursuite du rebond du dollar et de la baisse de la volatilité sur fond de shutdown aux Etats-Unis. Les bons résultats trimestriels américains qui ont porté les marchés boursiers vers de nouveaux plus hauts ont probablement contribué à la force du dollar. De même, le discours un peu hawkish de la Fed, ne garantissant pas une baisse des taux directeurs en décembre, a aussi soutenu le dollar via la réduction des anticipations de baisse des taux en décembre à s...

The Art of Appeal: Tariff Power on Trial at the Supreme Court

The Trum p administration has appealed lower court rulings that limit the president’s ability to unilaterally apply tariffs. The case will be heard by the Supreme Court this week with a ruling expected by the end of the year. Regardless of the outcome of the case, we expect trade threats and tariff drama to continue throughout the Trump presidency. There are several other tools at the disposal of a president, and we would expect Trump, given his decades long advocacy of protectionist policies, w...