Will silver keep outperforming gold?

In this report we look at the reasons behind silver’s recent outperformance vs. gold and give our price outlook . The correlation between gold and silver has considerably weakened since the start of the year , all while silver and copper prices have been moving in tandem. With industrial demand for silver rising and now equating to 58 % of total demand for silver, the metal is reacting more like a base metal. More importantly is the fact the solar panel demand for silver now accounts t...

Buy EnBW 1 7/8 2033 vs. sell RWE 0 5/8 2031

Z spread-wise, EnBW 1 7/8 2033 (ISIN: XS1901055472) currently trades wider than RWE 0 5/8 2031 (ISIN: XS2351092478) by around 22bps. This spread differential is hard to justify in light of the following elements: The rating differential between the two issuers. EnBW’s ratings (A- stable / Baa1 stable / WR) are on average one-notch higher than RWE’s (WR / Baa2 stable / BBB+ stable). As part of our coverage initiation, we are in the opinion that EnBW’s anchor at current rating levels...

Mid-year Outlook 2025 - "The summer will be hot, the autumn too."

It is an understatement to say that the first six months of 2025 have confirmed that the world has entered a chaotic, volatile, martial, and uncooperative era, where anxiety often competes with misunderstanding. There is little chance that this will change for the rest of the year. In the absence of strong convictions, here are some trends that are likely to continue:The trade war will continueThe United States is already imposing tariffs of over 15% ahead of the announcements on July 9, China i...

Mid-year Outlook 2025 - L’été sera chaud, l’automne aussi

C’est peu dire que les six premiers mois de 2025 ont confirmé que le monde était entré dans une ère chaotique, volatile, martiale, non coopérative où l’inquiétude l’a souvent disputée à l’incompréhension. Il y a peu de chances que cela change pour le reste de l’année. A défaut de convictions, quelques lignes de tendances qui devraient se prolongerLa guerre commerciale va continuerLes Etats-Unis sont déjà à plus de 15% de droits de douane avant les annonces du 9 juillet, la Chine exige pour ses t...

EnBW : EnBW: a defensive play in the utilities sector

We are initiating coverage of German vertically integrated power and gas utility EnBW . EnBW positions itself as one of Europe’s last remaining fully vertically integrated utilities . It enjoys footholds all along the power and gas value chains, through activities in electricity generation, electricity and gas transmission and distribution, electricity, gas and water supply. In response to structural changes affecting the German sector, EnBW has undertaken a deep overhaul of its asset base to ...

The horizon is clearing – at least in the short term

What with the Iran-Israel agreement, the China-US trade deal and Section 899 of the Big Beautiful Act being scrapped, political, geopolitical and commercial risks are dissipating one after the other this week, sustaining appetite for risk. The only downside is macro uncertainty (growth, inflation, monetary policy), which remains high, particularly in the US, given the already high valuations of risky assets. Mid-year Outlook 2025 - "The summer will be hot, the autumn too." Dear readers, the pub...

L’horizon – de court terme – s’éclaircit

Accords Iran- Israel , accords comme rciaux Chine-US, abandon de la section 899 du Big Beautiful Act , les risques politiques, géopolitiques et commerciaux se dissipent les uns après les autres cette semaine, entretenant l’appétit pour le risque. Seule ombre au tableau, l’incertitude macro (croissance, inflation, politique monétaire) qui reste forte notamment côté US, face à des valorisations déjà bien chères pour les actifs risqués. Mid-year Outlook 2025 - L’été sera chaud, l’automne auss...

Fed more confident about resumption of rate-cutting cycle?

Cross-Asset Views :Make European equities great again… but beware summ...

We think H2 will be decent for risk assets but we expect a difficult and volatile summer, with a deteriorating activity-inflation tradeoff, a still elevated political risk and interest rate risk vs high equity valuations.We expect a significant outperformance of European indices vs US. We do not believe in an equity decoupling (Europe up / US down) as short-term vulnerability in the US will probably spill over. But, barring country/regime-specific adverse news on the trade war, we think non-US s...

Une Fed plus confiante pour la reprise du cycle du baisse de taux ?

BUY EURNOK 3m Risk Reversal

The Norwegian krone (NOK) has come under pressure following the Norges Bank's unexpected rate cut on June 19, which lowered its deposit rate by 25 b ps to 4.25%. This move, justified by a quicker-than-expected decrease in inflation, has led the EUR/NOK exchange rate to rise from a low of 11.40 to 11.84. The Norges Bank anticipates a gradual normalization of rates, aiming for just below 4% by the end of 2025, while market expectations suggest additional cuts totaling around 46 b ps by then. In...

Dix défis pour l’économie chinoise

Buy CCBGBB 3 ⅜ 05/28/30 (NPS) vs ABNANV 0 ½ 09/23/29 (NPS)

We are positive on the CCBGBB NPS curve especially in the 3-5y space and vs largest regional peers which are the tightest of the EUR NPS universe. We like CCBGBB 3 ⅜ 05/28/30 (NPS Bullet) vs the ABNANV 0 ½ 09/23/29 (NPS Bullet) which still appears particularly tight. We believe there is still tightening potential in CCBGBB whereas ABNANV should at best marketperform going forward. In terms of fundamentals, we do not see any rationale that would justify the existing spread (~25 /30 bps) between...

フランス：雇用市場は曲がり角に来たのか

Calm returns on energy front

Retour au calme sur le front énergétique

French Property Barometer: Keep cautious and selective

In their latest barometer report released yesterday , BPCE Solutions Immobilières and MSCI France reveals a change in tone, shifting from cautious optimism back in November 2024 to a wait-and-see approach marked by economic uncertainties. Investors must navigate a complex environment focused on prudence and selectivity while adapting to a constantly evolving market. The evolution of investment intentions is more favorable to Hotels and Retail while its more nuanced for Logisti...

Energy prices and inflation: forecasting trends in the euro area

We forecast the direct impact of oil, natural gas, and electricity prices on headline inflation over the next six quarters based on the oil and gas price forecasts provided by Natixis. According to our model, the contribution of the energy component to headline inflation in the euro area is expected to remain within a range of 0.10 to 0.44 percentage points. The lowest level is projected in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting the recent downward trend in oil prices. This trend is expected to r...

ドイツ：賃金の価格への転嫁は終わりに近いのか

Will attention now shift to customs tariff deadline?