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Kirill TALAI
  • Kirill TALAI

Le High Yield plonge aussi dans le vert !

Ce mois-ci, notre revue mensuelle du marché HY se concentre sur la façon dont le €HY est devenu vert. Il existe actuellement trois types d'obligations vertes et durables (GSF, green and sustainable finance) qui se différencient selon leurs utilisations des produits du financement : vertes (les recettes sont utilisées pour financer des initiatives environnementales), sociales (projets socio-économiques) et durabilité (mélange de verte et sociale). Par ailleurs, il existe un nouveau type d’obli...

Kirill TALAI
  • Kirill TALAI

High Yield is getting greener!

October’s Monthly High Yield publication focuses on € HY’s greening. Currently, there are three types of green and sustainable financing (GSF) bonds based on the application of the proceeds : green ( proceeds used to fund environmental initiatives), social (proceeds used to fund socioeconomic projects) and sustainability (mixed of green and social). In addition, a new category of bonds has recently been introduced, sustainability-linked bonds (SLB) , intended to encourage the general develop...

Patrick Artus
  • Patrick Artus

Why the inflation and rising commodity prices when the level of GDP is...

Since the summer of 2020, the prices of commodities and intermediate consumption have risen sharply, driving up inflation sharply also. This may come as a surprise, as the level of global GDP is still below the level of potential GDP (or the level of GDP that would have been attained without the COVID crisis). Rising commodity prices and inflation despite a still-low level of GDP require: Either the supply of commodities and goods and services to have be en reduced by the crisis; Or demand an...

Patrick Artus
  • Patrick Artus

Pourquoi de l’inflation et des hausses des prix des matières premières...

Depuis l’été 2020, on a vu apparaître de fortes hausses des prix des matières premières et des consommations intermédiaires et en conséquence une forte hausse de l’inflation. Cette évolution peut surprendre, puisque le niveau du PIB mondial est encore inférieur au niveau du PIB potentiel (ou du niveau du PIB qui aurait été atteint sans la crise de la Covid). Pour qu’il y ait hausse des prix des matières premières et inflation malgré un niveau toujours faible du PIB, il faut : soit que l’offre ...

Patrick Artus
  • Patrick Artus

Can Europe hold its own against the United States and China?

Two observations form the basis for some concern: Industry is shifting from Europe to the United States and even more so to China; The major technology companies are concentrated in the United States and China. So can Europe hold its own against the United S t ates and China, or will it become an industrial and technological minnow despite the size of its domestic market? We look at a number of “effort” indicators to determine whether Europe is attempting to hold its own: The research and inn...

Patrick Artus
  • Patrick Artus

L’Europe peut-elle résister face aux États-Unis et à la Chine ?

Le point de départ de l’inquiétude est une double observation : l’industrie se déplace de l’Europe vers les États-Unis et encore plus la Chine ; les grandes entreprises technologiques se concentrent aux États-Unis et en Chine. L’Europe peut-elle alors résister face aux États-Unis et à la Chine , ou bien va-t-elle devenir un nain industriel et technologique malgré la taille de son marché intérieur ? Nous regardons un certain nombre d’indicateurs « d’effort » pour savoir si l’Europe essaie de ré...

Sylwia Hubar
  • Sylwia Hubar

Supply bottlenecks continue hitting

US inflation stubbornly above 5% so transitory is becoming a bit stretched. Several Fed policymakers were in favor of a faster tapering in the last meeting. On the other side of Atlantic, transitory is still the right interpretation of current price dynamics, with no evidence of significant second-round effects according to ECB President Lagarde. Meanwhile, latest data are showing that Europe is not immune to supply bottlenecks, with industrial production falling back below the pre-pandemi...

Sylwia Hubar
  • Sylwia Hubar

Les goulots de production continuent de peser

L ’ inflation américaine se maintenant obstinément au-dessus de 5%, son caractère transitoire devient plus incertain . L ors de la dernière réunion de la Fed, un certain nombre de membres du comité ont préconisé un tapering plus rapide . En Europe , l ’évolution actuelle des prix est toujours jugée transitoire, aucun effet de second tour n ’ éta n t visible selon l a président e de la BCE, Christine  Lagarde. Dans le même temps, les dernières statistiques publiées montren...

Patrick Artus
  • Patrick Artus

Who will bear the cost of the energy transition?

The energy transition will give rise to a negative income shock, due to: The destruction of capital and jobs (in the production and use of fossil fuels); The rise in energy prices (which only benefits producers of renewable energy and equipment for renewable energy production); The question is therefore : who will bear this loss of income? Companies have shown their ability to quickly restore their earnings, even in the face of severe shocks; Skilled workers spend a small proportion of their...

Patrick Artus
  • Patrick Artus

Qui va supporter le coût de la transition énergétique ?

La transition énergétique va faire apparaître un choc défavorable de revenu : avec la destruction de capital et d’emplois (dans la production et l’utilisation des énergies fossiles) ; avec la hausse du prix de l’énergie (qui ne profite qu’aux producteurs d’énergie renouvelable et de matériels pour la production d’énergies renouvelables) ; Il faut donc se demander qui va supporter cette perte de revenu  : les entreprises ont montré leur capacité à redresser rapidement leurs profits, même en face ...

Kirill TALAI ... (+2)
  • Kirill TALAI
  • Thibaut Cuilliere

€HY is getting greener !

Market trend Total return : Broad market correction hit both € and $HY by 1.0% and 0.7% respectively. In the US longer duration assets suffered from the inflation narrative - $BB underperformed $B and $CCC. Primary market was pretty active given the market context. $46bn issued in September in US$ HY, and €5bn + for the €HY market. Fund flows : net outflows over the past 5 weeks in €HY , although moderate (-€630mn), while US H Y funds managed to attract net money (+$650mn) despite...

Cyril Regnat
  • Cyril Regnat

Elle court, elle court, l’inflation…

Comme souligné par le FMI dans son World Economic Outlook , le contexte inflationniste, à l’échelle mondiale, a rarement été aussi incertain, d’où cet appel à un surcroît de vigilance du côté des banques centrales par l’Institution . Au regard de la vague de hausses de taux observée en Amérique du Sud ou en Europe de l’Est, il faut croire que certaines centrales banques n’ont pas attendu le message du FMI avant d’agir , la dernière hausse en date étant celle du Chili qui a augmenté son taux O...

Cyril Regnat
  • Cyril Regnat

Run, run, inflation…

As empha sis ed by the International Monetary Fund in its World Economic Outlook , rarely has such great uncertainty surrounded inflation prospects at global level, and that therefore even greater vigilance was needed on the part of the central banks. Judging from the wave of interest rate hikes observed in South America and Eastern Europe, it would seem that some central banks did not wait for the IMF's message before acting , the latest to come off the fence being Chile's central bank, w...

Joseph Lavorgna
  • Joseph Lavorgna

The Best-Laid Plans Revisited

The Fed has signaled its intention to announce a tapering of asset purchases at the conclusion of the November 3 rd FOMC meeting and to begin that process as soon as the middle of the month . In response, the futures market has brought forward the timing of Fed tightening. However, investors may be too bearish on the prospect of higher official interest rates. R ecent history is replete with examples of policymakers taking much longer than anticipated in execut ing the withdrawal of...

Ombeline DE POMMEROL
  • Ombeline DE POMMEROL

The labour force shortage in euro area

Supply side bottlenecks for certain intermediate inputs, particularly semiconductors, are not the only factor holding back the economic recovery in the euro area. In fact, some companies in some sectors are facing increasing difficulties hiring workers. This shortage would seem puzzling given that the euro area economy just faced one of its deepest recession. It could appear even more confusing in light of an unemployment rate of still 7.5% in August, and employment in the EMU4 countries...

Patrick Artus
  • Patrick Artus

What may prevent a company from increasing wages?

We look at the situations of the United States, Germany, France and the euro zone as a whole. After the COVID crisis, c ompanies very quickly began to report severe hiring difficulties in all these countries. One might then rapidly conclude that there will be a sharp acceleration in wages. But the question then arises as to what might prevent a company from raising wages. A company will not raise wages even when there are major hiring difficulties if: It can offset them with productivity gains...

Patrick Artus
  • Patrick Artus

Qu’est-ce qui empêche une entreprise d’augmenter les salaires ?

Nous allons regarder l es situation s des États-Unis, de l’Allemagne, de la France et de l’ensemble de la zone euro. Les difficultés d’embauche des entreprises sont devenues rapidement fortes dans tous c es pays après la crise de la Covid . On pourrait alors rapidement conclure qu’il va y avoir une forte accélération des salaires. Mais il faut alors se demander ce qui peut empêcher une entreprise d’augmenter les salaires. Une entreprise n’augmente pas les salaires même lorsqu’il y a de fo...

Patrick Artus
  • Patrick Artus

The key link between the fiscal deficits of 2020-2021 and the consumpt...

We will illustrate our analysis with the cases of the United States and the euro zone. In 2020-2021, governments have run up massive fiscal deficits, in particular to finance public transfer payments to households that have maintained and even increased their purchasing power despite the crisis. But households have not been able to consume normally because of the health crisis: they have therefore accumulated large forced savings. From 2022, governments will reduce fiscal deficits, and there ar...

Patrick Artus
  • Patrick Artus

Le lien essentiel entre les déficits publics de 2020-2021 et le compor...

Nous allons illustrer notre analyse par les cas des États-Unis et de la zone euro. En 2020-2021, les gouvernements ont mis en place des déficits publics très importants, contreparties en particulier de transferts publics aux ménages qui ont maintenu et même fait progresser leur pouvoir d’achat malgré la crise. Mais les ménages n’ont pas pu consommer normalement en raison de la crise sanitaire : ils ont donc accumulé une importante épargne forcée. À partir de 2022, les États vont réduire les dé...

Patrick Artus
  • Patrick Artus

Who suffers the most if China’s growth becomes weak?

It is reasonable to expect C hina’s growth to slow markedly due to a number of factors that all point in the same direction (population ageing and consumer caution, weak corporate investment and now weak construction investment, high debt ratio). It is therefore important to consider which countries will suffer the most from this slowdown in the Chinese economy. The answer will depend mainly on the weight of exports to China and the sensitivity of these exports to China’s growth. They are: Latin...

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