亞洲2026年經濟前瞻：地緣政治風險上升，經濟增速預計放緩（繁）

亚洲2026年经济前瞻：地缘政治风险上升，经济增速预计放缓（简）

Natixis US Rates Technical Chartbook

Please find attached our latest US Rates Technical Chartbook.  For the most part, yields still technically aim bearishly, though waning/mixed momentum may point to consolidation near term.  Similar for curve, with consolidation looking likely within overall steepening trends.John BriggsHead of US Rates Strategy 

Germany: Fiscal Plan on Track, but Short of 2025 Target

The German fiscal plan came into effect in October and the November monthly report indicates a fiscal balance for the core budget of €73.4 bn ( chart 1 ), compared to a 2025 government budget target of €81.9 bn. With December typically recording a positive balance, the likelihood of reaching the target appears low. At the same time , special funds are also expected to end the year below target , with €18.1bn new debt drawn from the Bundeswehr fund and €18.8bn from the Climate ...

Venezuela - Increasing Signals for Regime Change, Timing Still in Ques...

The gradual tightening of the Maduro administration by the U.S. government has resulted in a noticeable repricing of Venezuelan bonds, which were previously trading at deep default levels. Debt prices have risen from 10 cents on the dollar to just above 30 cents. We believe the U.S. administration has a clear intent to oust Maduro. While the motivations behind this could range from seeking greater access to Venezuela's oil reserves to eliminating a detrimental anti-democratic actor from t...

墨西哥關稅對亞洲影響幾何：中韓承壓較大, 汽車及鋼鐵行業首當其衝（繁）

墨西哥关税对亚洲影响几何：中韩承压较大, 汽车及钢铁行业首当其冲（简）

Credit supply outlook for 2026

After a record supply in 2025 (over €560bn for €-denominated corporates, nearly the same for financials), we expect:Another record year for €-denominated supply from non-financial corporates in 2026, with potential new issuance of €610bn.An increase of over €5bn for financials next year, with a "scissors effect" between senior and subordinated issuance

Financial Forecasts December 2025

To follow up on the recent publication of our Outlook 2026, we kindly ask you to find our Financial Forecasts for December 2025.You will find in the document the links allowing you to access the publication and the replays of our Outlook 2026.

Prévisions Financières décembre 2025

Pour donner suite à la publication récente de notre Outlook 2026, nous vous prions de bien vouloir trouver nos Prévisions Financières du mois de décembre 2025. Vous retrouverez dans le document les liens vous permettant d'accéder à la publication et aux replays de notre Outlook 2026

Central banks dispersion, fiscal dominance and tech worries - Our Week...

The year ends with a slight bond rally alongside bearish consolidation in equity markets, but both markets failed to display a very strong trend recently, waiting for catalysts, as the confidence in the post-shutdown U.S. data remains low. This suggests that January will bring greater clarity on the major risks for next year and on the upcoming Fed path.Nonetheless, the themes observed this week—and throughout the year—such as central banks' dispersion, fiscal dominance, debasement and the AI in...

Central Europe’s 2026 Economic Outlook: Still on the Bright Side, Poli...

Economic outlook for 2026 has broadly improved for the three economies of the CE3 region. In addition, the regional disparities observed in the past two years should decline thanks to robust growth perspectives in Poland and Czech Republic coupled to a gradual recovery in Hungary with an upside potential depending on the April 2026 elections outcome (with possible unlocking of the suspended EU funds). While domestic demand, and consumer spending, in particular, should remain the main driver of ...

テールリスクのヘッジ：ゼロコスト条件付きブル・フラットナー € 20s30s 1y fwd

Oracle’s silicon dreams: a harsh awakening?

In the competitive landscape of enterprise technology, Oracle Corporation has undergone a significant transformation over nearly five decades, shifting from its roots as a relational database provider to a major player in cloud and AI infrastructure.While the company demonstrates significant growth potential through bold initiatives, investors must weigh this against substantial risks, such as a growing debt load, intensifying competition with larger hyperscalers, and considerable execution chal...

ECB 12 月政策理事会：不確実性が残る中でも政策は据え置き

Financial Forecasts December 2025

Prévisions Financières décembre 2025

BoE Rate Cuts: Navigating the Uncertainty of Future Reductions

As we expected , the Bank of England cut interest rates following a narrow vote among Monetary Policy Committee members (5-4) , with Governor Andrew Bailey shifting his stance to support the reduction. The Bank indicated that the pace of future rate cuts could slow, making the decision on how much further to reduce rates "a closer call." While there has not been a substantial downturn in the labo u r market and inflation expectations have not decreased significantly, inflation is expected t...

ECB December Meeting: No Change Despite Uncertainties

At today’s meeting, the ECB Governing Council decided to keep its three interest rates unchanged at 2.00%, 2.15% and 2.40% for the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the margina l lending facility respectively. The decision – widely expected – was unanimous. The ECB also released its new economic projections until 2028. As we expected, GDP growth is revised up for 2025-2026 and 2027 (respectively now at 1.4%, 1.2% and 1.4% and stand at 1.4 % for 202...

Who and which sectors will suffer the most from Mexico’s new tariffs t...

While the US has reached trade agreements with most Asian markets, Mexico has reignited the tariff war by imposing up to 50% import duties. These tariffs may be related to Trump’s intention to push away Chinese exports (directly or indirectly through other Asian countries) from Mexico to the US before renewing the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).On the macro level, exports to Mexico from Asia remain mild. China and South Korea are affected more given the size of trade with 2.4% and 2.7% of ex...