Colombia: BanRep to keep rate at 9.25%

At the monetary policy meeting on September 30, BanRep will most likely keep its key rate unchanged at 9.25%. As has been the pattern in previous meetings, the decision is likely to be divided, with four members voting for the pause and three members, including Finance Minister Avila and those aligned with the government, voting for cuts. Reasons supporting the pause include the persistence of core inflation, which remains around 4.85%. Core inflation has moderated very little in recent mon...

澳洲央行會議前瞻：預計將維持現狀，繼續強調觀察宏觀數據並維持通脹穩定（繁）

澳洲央行会议前瞻：预计将维持现状，继续强调观察宏观数据并维持通胀稳定（简）

Too late to buy, too early to sell ?

In an environment still characterized by a significant uncertainty – with economic slowdown and inflation risks still competing quite closely - investors are taking time to reassess their views this week after a still resilient US newsflow and more cautious Fed speeches (and before today’s core PCE and next week’s crucial jobs figures). US yields are consolidating upward in a bear flattening move, while the S&P500 is poised for its first weekly decline of the month. Overall, market indicators ar...

Rates Weekly : OAT curve retains some advantages for long term investo...

EUR ratesRecap of the week:  Range trading in the 10Y Bund yield, which has struggled to reclaim levels above 2.80% observed in March. There is a slight inclination towards steepening, particularly evident in the 2Y-5Y and 2Y-10Y.  Regarding sovereign spreads, there are signs of renewed profit-taking on the BTP curve, which is now trading above the OAT.Insights of the week:  OAT curve retains some advantages for long term investors.Tactical view:  Tactically, we prefer limited duration exposure ...

RBA プレビュー：インフレの安定化を確実にするには、データ次第を強調せざるを得ず、現状維持が予想される

RBA Monitor: Status quo as RBA emphasizes data dependency to ensure in...

After the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) eased in August, inflation has remained sticky. The headline CPI picked up to +3.0% YoY in August from +2.8% YoY in July. For sure, the main reason was the expiry of state government electricity rebates. However, the decline in trimmed mean, a measure of underlying inflation, was limited to +2.6% YoY from +2.7% YoY during the same period, which is higher than +2.1% YoY in June. Moreover, services inflation has remained elevated above +3.0% YoY.The reason...

China can decarbonise the world – but even that won’t fix its overcapa...

China is crucial role to the world’s green transition for two contrasting reasons: it is the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter – over 30 percent of the global total – and it is the world’s largest producer of green technology. China is vital especially for renewable energy products, manufacturing 92 percent of the world’s solar modules and 82 percent of wind turbines as of 2024. The fact that 90 percent of global emissions come from energy consumption underscores the importance of China’s d...

A Big Deal: EU-Indonesia FTA Negotiations Concluded to Expand Trade an...

After almost a decade of negotiation, Indonesia will be a third Asian country other than Singapore and Vietnam to have a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the EU. The CEPA covers 21 areas of cooperation, including tariff elimination, trade in goods and services, investment, and sustainability. For Indonesia, the prize is not just exporting more Indonesian goods to the EU but also attracting investment from firms that want to take advantage of Indonesia’s vast 215mn working...

インドネシアのフリーランチは高い代償を伴う：投資家が同国財政の先行きを懸念する訳

Euro area: PMI Rises in September, but Subcomponents Warrant Caution

The Euro area composite PMI remained broadly stable in September at 51.2, from 51 in August. However, the manufacturing index fell unexpectedly to 49.5, down from 50.7. In contrast, the services PMI rebounded to 51.4 after declining to 50.5 in August. The September PMI survey presented a mixed picture once again. On one hand, the manufacturing index experienced a significant decline of -1.2 points , primarily driven by the output component. More concerning is the decrease in the new orders co...

Argentina : US Treasury to defend the Peso…will it work?

The Green Transition and the Challenge of its Financing

The consequences of climate change are significant for the economy, society, and the environment. Achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 is essential for humanity's preservation. Appropriate measures must be taken to encourage economic agents—households, businesses, and the public sector—to adopt a new carbon-neutral economic model. Supporting them in this transition is also crucial. The European Green Deal, the conditions for granting funds from the Next Generation EU programme, and the Fit for 55...

関税を巡る不確実性の中で、アジアが経済の強靭性を高めるには、域内協力を優先すべきだ

No surprise for the Fed

Today we are launching the first weekly rates report, which will give you a recap of the week's US and EUR rates as well as our tactical view. Please feel free to share your feedback with us by email.EUR ratesRecap of the week:  EUR yields ended the week almost unchanged.  France was in the spotlight following Fitch’s downgrade to A+, yet the market reaction was muted.  As such, front-end rates remain firmly anchored, leaving the long end as the main source of market noise.Insights of the week: ...

A dovish momentum for the end of the year

Risk assets remain on a positive momentum as the Fed delivered its first rate cut of the year; equity markets are up for the 3rd consecutive week with some sector and geographical dispersion, credit spreads tightened and volatility is still depressed across the board (10-day realized vol of SPX is 5%, MOVE to its lowest since 2022). Our Risk Perception Index (NXSRRPI Index) is steady below 20%. The key market drivers remain AI momentum and hopes for a real Fed cutting cycle while recession risk ...

経済・金融見通し 2025年９月（抜粋翻訳）

Colombia: The rationale behind using Total Return Swaps (TRS) as a deb...

The Colombian government has recently been in the spotlight due to its decision to abandon its fiscal rule and its unprecedented debt management operation s . This note does not attempt to review all of the Ministry of Finance's debt management operations. Instead, it exclusively focuses on the rationale behind using total return swap s (TRS) to pursue an aggressive and risky debt management strategy. To the best of our knowledge, no government of an Emerging Market nation has ever used TRS f...

昂貴的免費午餐：投資者為何擔憂印尼的財政前景（繁）

昂贵的免费午餐：投资者为何担忧印尼的财政前景（简）