Investors interested in China’s green transition should focus on the p...

In 2024, China’s renewable sector experienced wide-spread losses due to overcapacity. However, it doesn’t mean China’s green transition will grind to a halt. In this note, we analyze the emerging opportunities in China’s power infrastructure, i.e., power grid equipment and battery energy storage manufacturers (see Appendix).China has reached the 1,200GW renewable capacity target 6 years in advance, but the share of renewable in energy consumption remains low as grid construction usually lags pow...

Mexico – Trip Notes

We were in Mexico last week, where we met with central bank officials, independent economists, pension fund managers and corporate representatives. We perceived a sense of cautious optimism. Growth is weak, but slightly better than expected at the beginning of the year. Inflation is sticky, particularly core inflation, but the moderation might be enough for the continuation of rate cuts particularly if the Fed re-starts its easing cycle soon. Pemex remains problematic, but the recently announced...

July CPI Review: Goods Prices Remain Behaved

Overall the July CPI report showed less tariff related goods pressures than expected, in a month where we believed increased price pass-throughs would be more evident. Where tariff related cost increases are being absorbed along the supply chain is yet to be determined (tomorrow’s PPI should help inform), but thus far while goods prices are rising faster than earlier in the year, the impact in July was less than expected. For details, headline CPI came out at +0.2% m/m (+0.197% unrounded, +0.2%...

How sensitive are French banks to Sovereign ratings and spreads ?

What if France’s political and fiscal instability pressure were to come back before year-end ? What consequences for French banks’ ratings and spreads?As the pressure has been mounting again on the French government (see France 2026 Budget: Impossible mission II from our economists) regarding the 2026 budget, the likelihood of a French sovereign rating downgrade has recently increased.Against this backdrop, we are exploring hereafter the relationships between i/ France’s ratings and French Banks...

Trump’s Tariff Flooding Puts Taiwan at the Center of a Supply Chain Cr...

The recent escalation of US tariffs under the second Trump administration is a major blow to Asian, and thereby global, supply chains. But among the many economies affected, Taiwan faces perhaps the most delicate and complex challenge of all.Trump has imposed high import tariffs across Asia—maybe not as high as the reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2, Trump’s self-styled “Liberation Day,” but certainly higher than ever. China tops the list with 30% additional tariffs (around 50% overall when...

Advancing AI in the face of data scarcity

Has AI reached a performance plateau?Larger, newer models seem to be yielding diminishing returns, with only marginal improvements over their forerunners despite ever increasing compute power and storage capacity.As the ‘cumulative sum of human knowledge’ appears to have been exhausted in AI training, could this plateau actually be an unsurmountable wall?In this short note, we explore the challenges of advancing AI in the face of data scarcity, and in particular, we delve into the world of synth...

US/EU trade dispute far from over as US effective tariffs spike to 19%

The ongoing negotiations between the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) aim to formalize the tariff agreement reached on July 27. Although initial tariffs on US imports were set, the Commission published a regulation on August 5 suspending these measures for six months to allow for further negotiations. President Trump's executive order signed on July 31 introduces a minimum blanket tariff of 15% on EU goods with a duty rate below this threshold, while those already exceeding it rem...

Poland: A New Driving Force of Europe?

After the pro-EU parties won the 2023 parliamentary election, Poland took a more prominent role in the European politics. Under Donald Tusk's leadership and following the country’s presidency at the Council of the European Union from January to June 2025, Poland has been actively establishing itself as a crucial contributor to the future of Europe and an important partner in the EU-US collaborations, especially as global power dynamics keep evolving. By emphasizing "strong leadership," Poland a...

欧州企業はなぜ、中国での金運を失ったのか

澳洲央行會議前瞻：8月可能僅降息25基點並保持鷹派基調（繁）

澳联储会议前瞻：8月可能仅降息25基点并保持鹰派基调（简）

RBA プレビュー：8 月は 25bps の利下げを行うも、タカ派姿勢は崩さず

RBA Monitor: Only a 25bp hawkish cut will be delivered in August

The fight against inflation seems to have been finally, at least so far, opening the door for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to ease at the policy meeting on August 12th. In fact, the trimmed mean, a measure of underlying inflation, decelerated from +2.9% YoY in Q1-25 to +2.7% YoY in Q2-25 (Chart 1).  This is still slightly higher than the RBA’s forecast of +2.6% YoY on the May Statement on Monetary Policy but there is more evidence to inflation finally stabilizing at the RBA’s desired leve...

英国との貿易協定を見れば、インドが関税にどれだけ全力を注いでいるのか、それともいないのかが分かる

從印度與英國貿易協定看印度在關稅問題上是否會做出讓步（繁）

从印度与英国贸易协议看印度在关税问题上是否会做出让步（简）

Bank of England: Embracing a prudent accommodative cycle

As expected, the BoE decided to reduce Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4% at today’s monetary policy meeting . While stressing that risks for the medium-term path for the CPI inflation were two-sided , the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) considered that disinflation in underlying domestic price and wage pressures had generally continued . The meeting experienced an historical spilt vote with 4 MPC members (Andrew Bailey, Sarah Breeden, Swati Dhingra and Dave Ramsden) in favour of cut...

特朗普關稅對亞洲供應鏈的衝擊：從中國+1到亞洲+1？（繁）

特朗普关税对亚洲供应链的冲击：从"中国+1"到"亚洲+1"？

アジアのサプライチェーンに溢れるトランプ関税： China+1 から Asia+1 への戦略転換が必要か