Momentum crashes awaken value - Our weekly cross-asset views

The macro newsflow remained pretty light: no surprises from the ECB, a slightly more dovish MPC reinforcing the likelihood of a cut in March (vs April), and a hike by the RBA as expected. The US newsflow was mixed, with a record jump in the ISM Manufacturing, but confirmation of the increasing weaknesses and skills mismatches in the US job market, increasing the focus on next week NFPs.Despite this fairly calm fundamental environment, market have turned risk off this week with momentum crashes a...

Charge Forward! Investing in innovation across the battery supply chai...

Over the next 25 years, global electricity demand is expected to more than double, driven by rapid electrification across transport, industry, heating, and digital infrastructure. This is not a cyclical trend; it is a structural one. As fossil fuels are progressively displaced, low-carbon electricity becomes the backbone of the global energy system, with renewables and nuclear playing a central role.Rechargeable batteries have emerged as one of the most effective tools to support the energy tran...

Charge Forward! Investing in innovation across the battery supply chai...

Over the next 25 years, global electricity demand is expected to more than double, driven by rapid electrification across transport, industry, heating, and digital infrastructure. This is not a cyclical trend; it is a structural one. As fossil fuels are progressively displaced, low-carbon electricity becomes the backbone of the global energy system, with renewables and nuclear playing a central role.Rechargeable batteries have emerged as one of the most effective tools to support the energy tran...

ESG Bonds: Supply and greenium dynamics

Dear clientsWe invite you to view our presentation broadcast during our webinar on Tuesday, February 3, 2026.

日本提前大選：高市早苗與自民黨有望獲得絕對多數席位，或將加強預算控制（繁）

日本提前大选：高市早苗与自民党有望获得绝对多数席位，或将加强预算控制（简）

HKD Peg: The Fed's Monetary Footprint

The year 2025 marked a turning point for Hong Kong's monetary system. For the first time since the establishment of its trading band in 2005, the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) tested both the strong and weak ends of its exchange rate corridor against the US dollar. Driven by the Federal Reserve's monetary cycle and erratic capital flows, these oscillations forced the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) into significant and often contradictory interventions, subjecting the peg to an unprecedented stress...

ECB January Meeting: No Change as Inflation is “in a Good Place”

At today’s meeting, the ECB Governing Council decided to keep its three interest rates unchanged at 2.00%, 2.15% and 2.40% for the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility respectively , with no pre-commitment to a particular rate path . The decision – widely expected – was unanimous. In the monetary policy statement, the Governing Council stressed that “ the economy remains resilient in a challenging global environment. Low unemp...

印度與歐洲和美國的協定，有望提升印度出口和投資競爭力（繁）

印度与欧洲和美国的协定，有望提升印度出口和投资竞争力（简）

France : Le Budget 2026 clôt une séquence d’incertitudes politiques sa...

L’Assemblée nationale a adopté le Budget 2026 le 2 février. Cela marque la fin d’une séquence politique difficile amorcée au milieu de l’été 2025 et ayant conduit à la chute de deux gouvernements (Bayrou et Lecornu I). L’adoption du Budget réduit le risque politique à court terme et acte de la poursuite de la consolidation budgétaire en France, avec une cible de déficit public fixée par le gouvernement à 5,0% en 2026, après 5,4% en 2025 et 5,8% en 2024. Nous jugeons crédible la cible de défici...

BoE Maintains Rates in Dovish, Narrow 5-4 Vote

The Bank of England kept Bank Rate at 3.75% in a tight 5–4 vote, with Governor Andrew Bailey acting again as the swing voter. The outcome was more dovish than markets had anticipated but in line with our expectations. The BoE signalled room for further rate cuts this year but did not point to a ny specific meeting. The BoE expects inflation to move toward the 2% target by spring , helped by the Budget, though the decline must be durable. While inflation persistence has eased somewhat, so...

Japan: Takaichi’s LDP heading to absolute majority at snap election, p...

Prime Minister (PM) Takaichi called a general election on February 8th, by dissolving the Lower House on January 23rd. Her intention was to win an absolute majority as her Cabinet approval rate was elevated at 62% in January, jumping from 39% in September-25 just before former PM Ishiba resigned in October-25 (Chart 1). During the short election period, a potential reduction to the consumption tax became the focal point of the campaign. After opposition proposed to lower or to eliminate the tax,...

January Employment Preview

We expect payrolls to rise 55k in January, which would be consistent with the previous two prints (50k in December and 56k in November ). A gain of this magnitude would be a continuation of decent, but unspectacular, job growth. Because the pace of job gains that is consistent with population increases is very uncertain given the slowdown in immigration, policymakers will keep a closer watch on the unemployment rate. Going forward, we see troubling signs for the labor market. Job openings...

Global Forex Monitor - February 2026: Peak Party for Commo Currencies

In January, the DXY dollar index weakened by more than 1.2% due to concerns that there could be a coordinated intervention in the foreign exchange market by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Fed, this after rate checks were conducted with several major banks. Donald Trump initially put a positive spin on the fall in the US dollar, but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was quick to affirm his support for a strong dollar to avoid Treasuries being negatively affected. The nomination of Kevin Warsh to ...

Global Forex Monitor - Février 2026 : des devises « commo » à la fête

Au mois de janvier, l'indice dollar DXY a baissé de plus de 1,2% en raison de craintes d'interventions sur le marché des changes par la Banque du Japon et la Fed, après des demandes de cotation émises à certaines banques. Donald Trump a d'abord considéré cette chute du dollar comme une nouvelle positive, mais Scott Bessent, le secrétaire au Trésor, a rapidement affirmé son soutien à un dollar fort pour éviter d'affecter négativement les Treasuries. La nomination de Kevin Warsh comme prochain gou...

Euro area: January inflation reviewFlash estimate

According to Eurostat's Flash estimate, the Euro area annual headline inflation averaged 1. 69 % in January , down from 1.9 7 % in December . Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, alcohol and tobacco prices, recorded 2. 1 9%, versus 2. 32 % in the previous month. Flash estimates by components showed: A lower contribution of Services to annual headline inflation at 1.5 0 pp (1.5 7 pp in December ). An increased contribution of Food, Alcohol and Tobacco up to 0. 52...

ECB プレビュー：不安定な中での現状維持か

A New Era of Trade: The US-India Deal Elevates India Export and Invest...

Finally, the long-awaited exhale has come for India's growth and the rupee. The US and India announced a staggering tariff reduction from 50% to 18%. This will provide immediate respite to the Indian economy and its assets, which have been dragged down by the previous 50% tariff affecting USD 45 billion worth of goods, or 1.2% of GDP, primarily in labor-intensive sectors such as textiles and gemstones. In 2025, India performed the worst in Asia in terms of exports, as oil and labor-intensive exp...

Financial Forecasts February: 2026, better than expected

In 2025, all economies will have been close to their potential growth, and the year will ultimately be "a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing" and we had to revise upward our forecasts more than once.However, we quickly transitioned from Macbeth to Pirates of the Caribbean if not Age Ice.… In any case, the American "Imperial Republic" of R. Aron seems to be back, and geopolitical tremors are sure to follow. After Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East, Asia migh...