Don't Fight the Techs - Our Weekly Cross Asset Views

Looking at our performance dashboard, this week delivers mix messages:  a high dispersion across equity markets (+6% for the NKY week-to-date (wtd) vs -2% for the RTY), US bonds bear flatten and underperform EUR and GBP curves (flat), credit spreads tightened marginally and EM debt outperformed, gold and Brent are down again while the USD gains 0.7% wtd. Realized volatilities have marginally increased while implied ones are down.Fed, Big techs reporting and US-China de-escalation were the 3 known unknowns of the week. The Fed duly delivered the 25bps fully-expected cut, announced QT terminatio...

Trump-Xi’s Temporary Truce: What It Means for Taiwan

If the aim of the 30 October meeting between United States President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, in Busan, South Korea, was to ease trade tensions, it can be judged as just about achieved. US ‘fentanyl tariffs’ on China were halved to 10%, bringing US tariff levels on imports from China closer to those applied to other Asian economies.In return, China agreed to resume US soybean imports – hardly a breakthrough – and, more importantly, to postpone export controls on five rare earth elements (REEs) announced earlier in October. However, separate Chinese export controls announc...

L'accord Trump-Xi n'est pas un accord mais une trêve avec des risques cachés