Liberation Day is here! What to watch for

At 4pm EST today in the White House Rose Garden, President Trump will unveil his “comprehensive plan for restoring fairness in US trade relationships. ” While there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty, the White House has provided some nuggets that may speak to what we can expect. Ultimately, we don’t expect to get full clarity on the specifics, but we should get more information about the general direction of trade strategy. The announcement today will likely be broad. Trump said over the weekend that tariffs will hit “essentially all” trading partners. Whether or not he should...

How will US’ additional tariffs impact the Chinese economy

Since the inauguration of the Trump administration on January 20th 2025, the US tariffs on Chinese goods have been hiked by an additional 20%. The possible upcoming tariffs scheduled to announce on April 2nd is further casting doubts on China’s economic growth for 2025 and beyond.In this paper, we quantify the impact of the existing additional 20% tariffs set by the Trump administration on Chinese goods across the board. The most immediate channel of the tariff impact is to lower demand through higher prices. However, we also need to consider two additional features, namely the growth of the U...

Liberation Day is here…