Natixis - Liberation Day is here…

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Natixis

Liberation Day is here…

01/04/2025 1 EN

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Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

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Nordine Naam

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Following the announcements regarding U.S. reciprocal tariffs, the dollar corrected against most currencies, particularly the G10 currencies, amid fears of a significant slowdown in the U.S. economy and in reaction to heightened expectations of rate cuts by the Fed, despite the prospect of higher U.S. inflation. In this stagflationary environment, the market reflects nearly four rate cuts of 25 basis points (92 basis points exactly). In the short term, the dollar will likely remain weak, especially if U.S. macro data (cf. ISM Index) supports the market's current scenario of a pronounced slowdo...

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Emilie TETARD ... (+2)

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Today’s reaction of risk assets to the worse-than-expected tariff announcements by D. Trump has been strong and unequivocal: U.S. equity markets are deep in the red and underperforming European, Chinese, and Japanese stocks. The U.S. dollar drops by more than 2%, while recession and stagflation market pricings are rising, as evidenced by the decline in real rates and the increase in US 2Y inflation breakeven rates (~3.4%) . We see further downside for U.S. stocks in the short run. The potential for retaliatory measures from China and the EU is significant in our view and co...

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Oil prices are trading sharply lower on Thursday as Trump’s tariffs reverberate through global markets. Although energy flows are exempt, we point to some of the implications for the oil market in this first take note: Tariffs are particularly stringent on emerging Asia, the centre of gravity for oil demand growth in 2025 – of the 1mn b/d consumption growth expected in 2025, 0.8mn b/d is attributed to non-OECD Asia. Typical supply side reaction functions to lowered global oil demand expectations may not operate as expected. OPEC will seek to avoid Trump’s anger and will exhibit a higher ac...

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Liberation Day is here…

Towards weaker dollar

Liberation day: more downside ahead for equities

First Take – Universal Tariffs and Oil Markets

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