No surprise for the Fed

Today we are launching the first weekly rates report, which will give you a recap of the week's US and EUR rates as well as our tactical view. Please feel free to share your feedback with us by email.EUR ratesRecap of the week:  EUR yields ended the week almost unchanged.  France was in the spotlight following Fitch’s downgrade to A+, yet the market reaction was muted.  As such, front-end rates remain firmly anchored, leaving the long end as the main source of market noise.Insights of the week:  Flow in EGBs by investors type through H1-25.Tactical view: We expect 2.85% for the 10Y Bund in the near term and the positioning further supports our bias.  We still believe that the long end should be penalised by the rise in term premium. Divergence should persist between, on the one hand, the OAT spread and the rest of the EGB universe.US rates: Market expectations were high going into this week’s Fed meeting, even if only measured by forward market pricing for the funds rate. We close our 2yr longs at 3.52%, originally initiated at 3.93%.  We continue to harbor longer-term concerns regarding the curve (rising term premium, rising pressure on long duration global sovereigns, etc.).