US Rates Technical Chartbook - October 2025

I am pleased to introduce our new US Rates Technical Chartbook.  In this periodic piece, I will provide some technical analysis for the US Treasury benchmarks, select curves, 10yr swap spreads, and other areas of the market that may be in focus.  Market participants have a wide variety of views regarding technicals.  For me, technicals are a visual representation of where investors value an asset and have exchanged capital for that asset.  They are useful to help refine entry, exit, and stop loss levels, and are especially powerful when they align with one's overall fundamental view - I start with the fundamental view then turn to technicals for support. There is also a wide variety of technical studies one can employ - I focus on the ones that I find have worked best for me without overcomplicating the analysis: a combination of basic charting (trends, highs/lows, etc) with Japanese candlestick studies (particularly reversal patterns such as dojis and stars) and Fibonacci retracements.  While I tend to not focus much on moving averages, I do include the 200-day moving average, mainly because since most of the market watches it, it has meaning.I intend this to be a living document, please share suggestions and feedback to help it improve and grow over time.Thank you,John BriggsHead of US Rates Strategy, Natixis