Bible 4Q24 – Foundries: $80bn in AI revenues in 2029
Today, we are publishing the Foundry section of our 26th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions.TSMC guided for mid-20% revenue growth this year, with AI revenues set to double, implying mid-teens growth for non-AI. We see upside: Intel outsourcing and further N3 adoption in smartphones could push overall growth towards 30%. Beyond, the outlook is strong, with TSMC guiding for $80bn of AI revenues in 2029. This aligns with our current expectation for industry XPU spending in 2029.
The outlook for the broader foundry market in 2025 is more uncertain: fabless inventories remain rather high, and macro uncertainty may weigh on the recovery in end-demand.
Semiconductor Manufacturing International is mainly engaged in the computer-aided design, manufacturing, packaging, testing and trading of integrated circuits and other semiconductor services, as well as manufacturing and designing semiconductor masks. Co. provides integrated circuit (IC) foundry and technology services on process nodes from 0.35 micron to 28 nanometer. In addition to wafer fabrication, Co.'s service offerings include a comprehensive portfolio consisting of IC design libraries, circuit design blocks, design support, mask-making, wafer probing and gold/solder bumping.
United Microelectronics is principally engaged in the manufacture or fabrication of integrated circuits, semiconductor parts and components across industries, including communication, consumer electronics, computer, and others. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is also engaged in investment holding; selling and manufacturing of solar power batteries and solar power cell; designing and manufacturing of light-emitting diode (LED); involving in insurance industries; provision of solar engineering integrated design services; operating photovoltaic power plant.
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