Roche - Upgrade to BUY (TP CHF330 [260], 15pgs)
New data published recently & new analysis gives us increased confidence on the potential upside for Ocrevus HD, which consensus barely models. We show there is a strong chance that it works in RMS (at least) & it could receive new IP beyond 2029. This would add 8% to the Roche NPV on our numbers and increase our 2029-2032 sales CAGR from 1% to 3%. It would also remove the risk of a material slowdown from 2029 onwards & result in a re-rating, in our view. We believe the Phase 3 Ocrevus HD data is likely to read out in H125. In addition to the upside risk from Ocrevus HD, we also add $2bn by 2030 for the P2 pipeline following our recent thematic analysis [here]. PT up to CHF330. For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )Roche Holding is a healthcare company. Co. operates in two Divisions, Pharmaceuticals and Diagnostics. Co.'s pharmaceuticals division is comprised of two business segments Roche Pharmaceuticals and Chugai. Co.'s pharmaceuticals division provides therapies including Cotellic, in combination with Zelboraf for advanced melanoma, and Alecensa for a specific type of lung cancer. Co.'s diagnostics division consists of four business areas: Diabetes Care, Molecular Diagnostics, Professional Diagnostics and Tissue Diagnostics. Co.'s diagnostics division provides in vitro diagnostic tests, used by healthcare providers to screen, diagnose and monitor therapies.
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