SES 3Q25: Worse then feared. Downgrade senior notes to Underweight
SES has reported weak Q3 results and weaker Q4 guidance, with Adj. EBITDA for the combined business (incl. Intelsat) declining at c.−20% YoY. We’ll have to wait until February for updated mid-term guidance, meanwhile the outstanding guidance looks increasingly farcical. Most concerning though is net debt, which came in +€0.4bn higher than we had expected and will likely see leverage at 5x (on an all-in basis) this year, or 4x including potential C-band proceeds. Not for the first time this year, leverage at a European satellite operator looks concerning.SES is engaged as a provider of satellite-delivered services. As a strategic management company, Co. operates through a unique network of leading satellite operators around the world. This network comprises the fully-owned SES ASTRA in Europe and SES AMERICOM in the U.S., as well as participations in regional satellite operators. SES ASTRA is European direct-to-home satellite operator. SES AMERICOM operates a fleet of 17 satellites serving the Americas, Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. AsiaSat provides transponder capacity for broadcast, broadband and telecommunications services in the Asia-Pacific region.
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