Grifols A : Debt refinancing starts well, more to come in 2026-27
After a significant rebound in 2023 and in 2024, Grifols is now entering into a phase of slower earnings improvement. Underlying growth was still solid in 2025 (+9% for revenues and +11% for adjusted EBITDA excluding the IRA and currency impacts) but external factors weighed on results (they were up by +4% and +3% respectively on a reported basis). The company is guiding for 5% to 9% adjusted EBITDA growth on constant FX this year and is not providing any revenue guidance, apart from saying that it will focus on profitable growth. Still, we expect that credit metrics will continue to improve as a result of growing FCF and the neutral impact of FX moves on FCF and net leverage. Our model assumes that covenant leverage will decline from 4.2x in 2025 to 3.9x in 2026 and to 3.7x in 2027, close management’s target of 3.5x or below that year. And from 5.7x in 2025 to 5.2x in 2026 and 4.6x in 2027 with our adjustments. A potential IPO of the US Biopharma business could accelerate the de-leveraging trajectory towards the desired level.We withdraw our recommendation on the 2027 secured notes that will be called on 22 April at a price of 100%. We cut our recommendation on the 2028 unsecured notes and on the 2030 notes to Neutral (vs. Buy) given their limited upside.
Grifols is engaged in developing, manufacturing and distributing a range of plasma derivative products. Plasma derivatives are proteins found in human plasma, which once isolated and purified, have therapeutic value. These protein-based therapies extend the lives of individuals who suffer from chronic and acute conditions. Co. also specializes in providing infusion solutions, nutrition products, medical devices, diagnostic instrumentation and reagents for use in hospitals and clinics. Co.'s products and services are used by healthcare providers in approximately 100 countries. Co.'s business is organized into three divisions: Bioscience, Diagnostic, Hospital and Raw Materials.
Oddo Securities provides securities brokerage and research services. The company offers equity, economic, and derivatives research and credit analysis services. It focuses on insurance, automotive, building materials, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications, information technology, and agri-food industries.
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