Celanese : From a depressed year to a potential improvement in profitability

FY 2026 performance could show some y/y improvements in profitability contrary to initial expectations of a continued deterioration of credit metrics amid increasing supply and depressed demand, notably on the Acetic Chain segment. Such change is of course driven by the current war in Iran which has rebalanced chemical markets, passing from structural oversupply to a regional tightness with the US being the main winner. With Celanese being well implanted in the US, and amid increasing export opportunities, earnings should benefit as margins increase and domestic demand improves in the absence of cheap imports from both the Middle East and Asia. The size of the improvement will evidently depend on the length of the war and the resilience of local demand. We expect FCF generation to lead the deleveraging of the balance sheet, while the strong liquidity position and good and proven access to the debt capital markets should allow for a smooth refinancing of the upcoming debt.