The PSA Research Round-Up for Week to 13 February 2026

Weekly Comment Summary
Billions of dollars have been knocked off software stock valuations in the past 24 hours, as markets globally take the view that we won’t need them, thanks to AI. At the same time business managers are rolling their eyes at the conclusion, as they beat earnings expectations. Who is right?
Pelham Smithers discusses

PSA Weekly Contents at a Glance
Reports / Flash Notes Summaries
1. Winds of Change at Toyota (7203 JT)?
2. SRE Holdings (2980 JT) Produces Exceptional FY25 Q3 Results
3. Nissan’s (7201 JT) Art of Account

Company / Sector / Thematic Comments
Technology: Consumer Electronics, Gaming
1. Video Games Round-up
2. Nexon FY25 Q4 OP Below Consensus but Gives Positive Guidance
3. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Technology: Industrial Electronics / Components / Semis & SPE / Precision
4. Kioxia FY25 Q3 OP +16% YoY, Guides Massively Above Consensus
5. Kokusai Electric FY25 Q3 OP -20% YoY Beating Expectations
6. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Chemicals / Materials
7. Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Guides for +10% OP Growth in FY26
8. Dexerials FY25 Q3 OP +11 YoY%, Below Consensus
9. Dowa Mining FY25 Q3 Hit by Derivative Losses
10. Materials Results Round-up
11. Resonac Guides for an AI-driven Recovery in FY26
12. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Autos / New Mobility
13. Mazda: FY25 Q3 Beats Consensus
14. Honda: FY25 CE OP Kept, Despite Lower Tariff Costs, Weaker Yen
15. Nissan Raises FY25 Guidance on FX, Costs, Change in Emission Regulations
16. Isuzu Maintains its FY25 Guidance on Lower-Than-Expected FX Losses
17. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Capital Goods / Machinery / Auto Parts
18. KHI Soars on 5:1 Stock Split
19. Fujikura In-Line Q3; More Capex
20. IHI Q3 Modest but Orders Rising
21. Daifuku Listing High in Weak Market
22. Nabtesco Falls Despite Firm FY26 Guidance
23. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Internet / eCommerce
24. Mercari Revises Up FY26
25. Recruit Revises Upward
26. Rakuten’s FY25 IFRS OP +¥68.3bil YoY Excluding FY24’s One-off Gains
27. Net Protections: on Track to Surpass FY25 OP Target
Enterprise Software / IT Services
28. DTS FY25 Q3 Consensus OP Beat but Sales Miss
29. ExaWizards: FY25 Q3 Preview / Results
30. PKSHA Beats Consensus Estimates for FY26 Q1
31. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Telecom
32. SoftBank Group FY25 Q3 NP ¥249bil Vs Loss, Short of Consensus
33. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye 27
Small- / Mid-Cap Insights
34. Kyoritsu Maintenance: OP to Accelerate in Q4
35. M&A Capital Partners: Meeting Takeaway
36. Treasure Factory: Solid January KPIs
37. Moriya FY25 Q3 Ahead of Plan / Meeting Takeaway
38. Japan Elevator Service: Solid Modernization
39. Sanrio: FY25 Q3 China Sales Strong While US Concerns Continue
40. Olympics & WBC a Negative to Karaoke Operators et al
41. Intermestic: Goodwill Amortised in 20-yrs Reassuring
42. TKP’s Two Listed Subsidiaries Report Better-Than-Expected FY25 OP Results
Macro / Market / Strategy / Misc.
43. Takaichi Gets Her Landslide Win
44. Dec 2025 Cash Earnings +2.4% YoY
45. Shimano FY25 Q4 OP +5% YoY, Disappoints on Guidance
46. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye

List of Recently Published PSA Notes & Reports
Important Disclosure Statement from Pelham Smithers Associates Limited


PSA in the Press
1. Toyota's Top Management Change Good for ROE – Bloomberg [9 Feb]
Pelham Smithers Associates (Julie Boote)
• "Investors may have been hoping for stronger sales growth and guidance upgrades on lower tariffs and better core operations
• The company is “holding up quite well” in Europe and Asia compared to other Japanese automakers
• The sharp rise in the net profit projection surprised markets with the consensus at ¥3,420bil"
2. Honda Profit May Fall on Weak Sales, Chip Shortage: Preview – Bloomberg [9 Feb]
Pelham Smithers Associates (Julie Boote)
• Pelham Smithers: “Honda’s auto operations are under pressure, as extraordinary factors, as well as fundamental company-specific issues, are weighing on profits. Auto sales have fallen substantially over the last two years as Honda is struggling with its market positioning and product line-up.”
3. Nissan May Report Big Losses on Weak Sales, Tariffs – Bloomberg [10 Feb]
Pelham Smithers Associates (Julie Boote)
• "Nissan has been suffering from a lack of hybrid models in the US, where demand for this powertrain has risen significantly in the last ten years. Given Nissan’s current mandate to slash costs and keep investments down, it isn’t certain whether the e-Power plans can be carried out. Even if plans were approved, e-Power production wouldn’t be likely to start before 2028, in our view”
4. Nssan Leaf Champion Carlos Ghosn Reemerges Around the Edges of Global Automakers, Tesla Optimus Replacing Model S and X – Greenauto.com [9 Feb]
Pelham Smithers Associates (Julie Boote)
• Carlos Ghosn’s pursuit of high volumes has been damaging to Nissan, as it resulted in a built-up of massive overcapacities. After he left, capacities were reduced already, but it seems to be an ongoing process, said Julie Boote, director at research firm Pelham Smithers Associates, in an email.
• The lack of hybrids and an attractive BEV line-up have been a major issue for Nissan, as well price as competitiveness (inefficient manufacturing) and poor brand image,” Boote wrote. “While Nissan is aware of these issues, there is no quick fix. Speeding up development times does not guarantee the creation of a best-seller.
• Also, the competitive landscape has changed, with Chinese assemblers not only expanding in China, but also in Europe and Asia.”
• /nissan-leaf-champion-carlos-ghosn-reemerges-around-the-edges-of-global-automakers-tesla-optimus-replacing-model-s-and-x/
5. Nissan Shares Rise as Cost Cuts Cheered By Analysts: Street Wrap – Bloomberg [13 Feb]
Pelham Smithers Associates (Julie Boote)
• Acceleration in cost cuts is encouraging
• Remain concerned about sales performance and “strong rebound in sales in FY26 isn’t likely”
6. SoftBank ADRs Fall After 3Q Income Misses Estimates: Street Wrap – Bloomberg [13 Feb]
Pelham Smithers Associates (Pelham Smithers)
• Third quarter net profit of ¥249b was short of consensus
• The company lost money on “mark-to-mark pricing” of its investment in Coupang
• Profits were attributed to a valuation of its holding in OpenAI
7. Rakuten Shares Drop After Mobile Capex Disappoints: Street Wrap – Bloomberg [13 Feb]
Pelham Smithers Associates (Thao Nguyen)
• FY25 capex for Rakuten Mobile was “well below” the company’s original plan, held back by delays in securing construction resources
• Rakuten needs to focus on strengthening network quality as subscribers are increasing
• OP declined year-on-year but mainly due to re-measurement gain from change in accounting treatment for shares in AST SpaceMobile
• Fintech and internet services segments were solid and mobile revenue is rising
• “Excluding the one-off factors, Rakuten is seeing significant improvement in its financial performance”
8. Kioxia Shares Poised to Rally After Forecast Beat: Street Wrap – Bloomberg [13 Feb]
Pelham Smithers Associates (Pelham Smithers)
• Overall results were “well ahead of consensus,” which may reflect “the difficulty analysts have had keeping published consensus up to speed”
• Kioxia’s guidance is “effectively the same as SanDisk’s” even though the two have very different sales mixes
• There had been worries that Kioxia wouldn’t be able to implement price hikes as quickly as SanDisk, but these earnings allay those concerns
• “What the results do is underline what we should be thinking of as the bare minimum in FY26 OP”
9. Toyota Bets on Financial Discipline to Survive China’s EV Onslaught – FT [12 Feb]
Pelham Smithers Associates (Julie Boote)
• “Toyota has this new obsession with break-even volume. They are reviewing every investment, initiative and project,” said Julie Boote, analyst at Pelham Smithers. “There’s this strange sense of emergency.”
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PSA Company Visits, Tours and Interviews
Visited: M&A Capital Partners (6080 JT), Open Up Group (2154 JT), Moriya Transportation Engine & Mfg (6226 JT), Japan Elevator Service Holdings (6544 JT), TDK (6762 JT)
1-1 Call with: Kyoritsu Maintenance (9616 JT), Koshidaka Holdings (2157 JT)
Presentations at: Anicom Holdings (8715 JT), Intermestic (262A JT), Quants Research Institutes Holdings (9552 JT), Tokyo Ohka Kogyo (4186 JT), Dexerials (4980 JT), Kaneka (4118 JT), Resonac (4004 JT), Rakuten (4755 JT)