IBERIAN DAILY 27 FEBRUARY + 4Q'25 RESULTS. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: ACCIONA, ACCIONA ENERGÍA, ACERINOX, AMADEUS, CELLNEX, COLONIAL, ELECTRICITY SECTOR, FCC, GLOBAL DOMINION, GRIFOLS, IAG, MERLIN, OHLA, REDEIA, SACYR, SOLARIA, VISCOFAN.At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 4Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.
Doubts continue to plague Nasdaq, but software rallies after harsh punishment
European stock markets saw uneven performance in a session in which the poor reception of NVIDIA’s results dragged down the US Nasdaq (-1.5%). In the STOXX 600, the best-performing sectors were Travel & Leisure and Media, whereas Basic Materials and Telecoms had the biggest drops. On the macro side, in the euro zone January’s M3 sped up more than expected, with household and corporate lending growing 3.0% and 2.8% YoY, respectively. Meanwhile, February’s economic confidence index worsened unexpectedly. In the US, weekly jobless claims rose unexpectedly. In Mexico, January’s unemployment rate rose, as expected, to 2.7%. In Japan, Tokyo’s inflation included the energy subsidies and moderated in February although less than expected. Meanwhile, January’s retail sales and production rose more than expected. On the geopolitical front, Iran and the US did not reach an agreement but held productive talks. In US business results, Warner Bros released disappointing earnings, ZScaler, Dell, Autodesk and NetApp beat expectations.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open mixed but with a bearish slant. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.4% (the S&P 500 ended +0.46% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 -0.3%, Japan’s Nikkei +0.15% and South Korea’s Kospi -0.65%).
Today in Spain we will learn February’s preliminary inflation, in Germany the unemployment rate and inflation for February and in the US January’s production prices, February’s Chicago PMI and November’s construction spending. In US 4Q’25 Results, The AES and Coterra Energy, among others, will release their earnings.
COMPANY NEWS
ACCIONA. FY2025 results beating expectations and targets. UNDERWEIGHT
The results beat expectations and the targets’25 thanks to Nordex (known), Infra (concessions and water) and Real Estate, and with Energy in line (although on the operating level below our estimates). Consolidated EBITDA reached € 3.21 Bn (+30.8% vs. +19.0% BS(e) and +16.0% consensus), whereas EBITDA from operations came in at € 2.60 Bn (+9% vs. 2024). As for the targets’26, they are above in EBITDA (+17% BS(e) and +13% consensus). Following the stock’s outperformance in 2026 (+18.2% and +11% vs. IBEX) and +12% over the past week, we do not believe these solid results will have an impact on the market, as most of the positive surprises come from the favourable performance of Nordex (already known). We will raise our estimates to include the improvement seen in Nordex, Infra and Real Estate, but without obtaining enough upside to change our recommendation.
ACCIONA ENERGÍA. Weak results and in line with expectations. UNDERWEIGHT
Weak results and in line with expectations (with the operations EBITDA slightly below our esitmate). Revenues totalled € 2.93 Bn (-4.1% vs. 2024) due to lower prices captured and to assets sold. EBITDA came in at € 1.55 Bn (€ 932 M of operations due to lower-than-expected production and € 614 M of asset rotation, in line with its targets). The targets’26 are not accurate in EBITDA but are in line with our estimates. We do not foresee a relevant impact from the weak result that are in line with expectations and the unspecific guidance (in EBITDA). The share price has slid -4.4% in 2026 (-11% vs IBEX).
ACERINOX. 4Q’25 results below expectations in EBITDA due to inventories. We raise our T.P. OVERWEIGHT
The results were below expectations in EBITDA (€ 32 M vs. € 60 M BS(e) and € 78 M consensus) due to inventory adjustments (€ -60 M), but with solid FCF (€ 156 M) thanks to the working capital management. As for the outlook, the company expects adjusted EBITDA in 1Q’26 to be slightly higher than in Q4 (€ 101 M vs. € 102 M in 1Q’25), with a progressive improvement in 2026. We will raise our estimates in view of a more positive scenario in Europe stemming from the new tariff measures, with EBITDA’26-28e rising +4% and our T.P. +9%, which now stands at € 15.30/sh. (+16% upside).
AMADEUS. 4Q’25 results above expectations. Outlook for 2026 and 2028 in line. OVERWEIGHT
The 4Q’25 results beat expectations in revenues (+5.2% vs. +3.6% BS(e) and +4.3% consensus) and EBITDA (+9.3% vs. +4.5% BS(e) and +5.9% consensus). By segments, AD showed better performance than expected (+3.7%; +2% vs. BS(e), +3% vs. consensus) and Air IT (+6%; +3% vs. BS(e) and +4% vs. consensus). For 2026: (i) high-single-digit revenue growth (+9% BS(e)); (ii) low-double-digit growth in adjusted EPS (+10% BS(e)); (iii) FCF € 1.35-1.45 Bn (vs. € 1.39 Bn BS(e)). Moreover, the company provided medium-term prospects (2026-28): (i) revenues growing at high single digits (+8% BS(e)); (ii) adjusted EPS growing at low double digits (+9.5% BS(e)); (iii) FCF with high-single-digit growth (12% BS(e)). With this in mind, we place our T.P. Under Revision.
CELLNEX. Results basically in line (beating consensus in cash generation). OVERWEIGHT
Adjusted EBITDA reached € 3.31 Bn (+2.1% vs. +1.5% BS(e) and +1.8% consensus), with +7.1% organic growth and a margin of 83% (vs. 82% in 2024). We highlight the cash generation: RLFCF of € 1.91 Bn (+6.5% reported and +11.5% organic) and € 350 M of FCF (+12% vs. consensus). The company reiterated its guidance’27 (with slight adjustments to the scope of consolidation). We do not expect any impact. The stock has risen +13.4% in 2026 (+6.4% vs. IBEX) and +2% in 1 year (-57% vs. IBEX).
COLONIAL. FY2025 Results. OVERWEIGHT
Results are very much in line with our expectations: FY2025 Results vs. FY2024: Rents: € 399 M (+2% vs. +2% BS(e)); Recurring EPS: € 0.336 M (+2% vs. +1% BS(e)). LfL rents rose +6% (+5% in 9M’25) thanks to indexation, better renewal prices and occupancy. LfL GAV grew +3%, NTA +1%. COL sold an asset in Paris for € 240 M at similar levels to the appraisal, which is positive news. 2026 Guidance: the company foresees a recurring EPS of € 0.34-0.35 (vs. BS(e) € 0.36), below our expectation due to assets sale. We believe that FY2025 Results are very much in line with our expectations. As for the rest we see lights and shadows. We welcome the sale of the asset in Paris as it has been conducted without a discount and given the size of the asset, which suggests the existence of a liquidity window for that market. On the negative side, the EPS guidance’26 and the fact of not reducing LTV in a more aggressive fashion could not be welcomed by the market that would appreciate a more conservative capital allocation policy.
FCC. 4Q’25 results below expectations on the operating level due to adjustments in Construction. OVERWEIGHT
The 4Q’25 results came in below expectations on the operating level (€ 361 M EBITDA vs. € 442 M BS(e); -20% vs. 4Q’24) due to Construction, where EBITDA stood at € -35 M (vs. € 47 M BS(e)) due to an adjustment in different international projects (due to the progress and higher costs expected). NFD fell by -35% to € 2.3 Bn (~1.6x NFD/EBITDA, beating our estimate (€ 2.4 Bn) and including the cash inflow from the sale of 25% of Environmental Services for €~1 Bn. We expect a negative reception following the solid recent performance (+9.4% on the year; around +3% vs. IBEX).
G.DOMINION. Weak 4Q’25 results in line with expectations. OVERWEIGHT
The 4Q’25 results are in line in EBITDA (€ 37 M vs. € 38 M BS(e) and € 37 M consensus; -15% vs. 4Q’24) and once again hit by the slowdown in GDT Projects (~8% sales; -45% vs. 4Q’24), which led organic growth to +4% as of FY2025 (vs. +9% in 9M’25), below the target of above +5% annually. NFD fell by € -71 M in 2H’25 to € 137 M (~0.9x NFD/EBITDA vs. 1.4x in 1H’25), in line with expectations (€~140 M) and driven by the sale of the farms in the Dominican Republic. Net Profit fell -62% due to impairments in 2Q’25 (already known), and the company proposed a dividend of € 8 M (~78% payout vs. ~33% historically; -47% vs. 2024; 2% yield). We do not expect a significant impact following the poor recent performance (-4% on the year and -11% vs. IBEX).
GRIFOLS. 4Q’25 Results in line on the operating level and cash. Guidance’26 also in line. OVERWEIGHT
4Q’25 Results in line on the operating level(Adjusted EBITDA € 467 M vs. € 469 M consensus and € 471 M BS(e)); -11% vs. 4Q’24) and also in cash (NFD € 7.76 Bn vs. € 7.76 Bn BS(e); -3% in 4Q’25) and debt (4.2x NFD/ Adjusted EBITDA). The company announced its 2026e guidance Adjusted EBITDA groth between +5% and +9% at constant currency, meaning between € 1.92 Bn- € 1.99 Bn, in line with the consensus (€ 1.96 Bn reported consensus) although with more moderate sales growth (we foresee around +4% BS(e) LfL). The company also expects FCF’26e ex M&A and dividends to range between € 500 and 575 M (vs. € 535 M consensus and € 479 M euros BS(e)). We do not foresee a relevant impact following its lacklustre recent performance (+0% since its 3Q’25 Results; -15% vs. IBEX).
MERLIN PROPERTIES. Good FY2025 Results above expectations. OVERWEIGHT.
Good Results and above BS(e) and consensus. 4Q Rents on a standalone basis: € 144 M (+13% vs. +9% BS(e) and +11% consensus); FFO: € 81 M (+1.2% vs. -9.1% BS(e) and -8.3% consensus). Good news in Data Centres: generating +5% LfL growth in GAV, the company announced new pre-lease contracts and raised its revenue estimate by +5%. FFO’26 Guidance € 0.58 (0% vs. 2025, vs. € 0.57 BS(e) +5% with interest capitalisation) and € 0.44 DPS (yield 3.1%; € 0.42 BS(e)). We expect a positive market reaction even though the share price has climbed +15% in 2026 and 44% in 12 months.
OHLA. Better 4Q’25 Results on the operating level and cash. We change our recommendation to OVERWEIGHT.
4Q’25 Results above expectations on the operating level (EBITDA € 81 M vs. € 60 M BS(e); +46% vs. 4Q’24) and marked by a better margin performance in Construction (+310bps to 9.2% vs. 6.5% BS(e)). The PNT ended at € 490 M, meaining € 179 M of cah generation, above our estimate (€ +153 M BS(e)) and including € +119 M of positive working capital variation (vs. € +131 M BS(e)). After the poor recent share price performance (-12% since its 3Q’25 results; -25% vs. IBEX), our € 0.47/sh. T.P. yields interesting upside (+24%) and we see the risk/return ratio more appealing, and thus, we change our recommendation to OVERWEIGHT.
REDEIA. The 26-29 Strategic plan did not convince the market. OVERWEIGHT.
Yesterday the share price slid ~5.5% v.s +0.2% IBEX after the update of its strategic plan, hit by the limited short-term visibility, with low single-digit CAGR’25-29e in Net Profit (in line, although with mid single-digit >2031e with RAB >€ 15 Bn) and EBITDA margin
Acciona is the parent company of a construction group. Co. is engaged in general construction activities in the areas of civil engineering and buildings, including railways, marine and hydraulic works, motorways and airports, town planning, conduits, pavements, parking lots, and industrial and urban buildings. In addition, Co. is engaged in the provision of real estate services, the operation of parking lots, telecommunications, services, ecology and alternative means of energy. Co.'s operations are organized in six business divisions: Infrastructures, Real Estate, Energy, Water, Environmental & Urban Services and Logistic & Transport Services.
Acerinox is the parent company of a group engaged in the manufacture and sale of flat and long stainless steel products, and stainless steel wires. Co.'s major products include slabs, billets, black coils, plates, hot-rolled coils, hot-rolled sheets, flat bars, hot-rolled re-bars, hot-rolled black bars, engraved sheets, cold-rolled coils, cold-rolled sheets and circles. Co. also provides long stainless steel products, such as wire rods, angles, hot rolled flat bars, hot rolled re-bars, reinforced bars in coils, cold rolled re-bars, hot rolled black bars, cold drawn bars, and smooth turned bars. In addition, Co. offers wires, welding wire bars, and bars for electrodes.
Amadeus is a transaction processor for the global travel and tourism industry. Co. provides transaction processing power and technology solutions to both travel providers (including full service carriers and low-cost airlines, hotels, rail operators, cruise and ferry operators, car rental companies and tour operators) and travel agencies (both online and offline). Co. acts both as a worldwide network connecting travel providers and travel agencies through a processing platform for the distribution of travel products and services (through the Distribution business), and as a provider of a portfolio of IT solutions which automate certain business processes (through the IT solutions business).
Cellnex Telecom SA is a Spain-based company engaged in the wireless telecommunications (telecom) business. Its activities are divided into three segments: Broadcasting infrastructure, Telecom site rental, as well as Network services and other. The Broadcasting infrastructure division comprises distribution and transmission of television (TV) and frequency modulation (FM) radio signals, operation and maintenance (O&M) of radio broadcasting network, as well as over-the-top (OTT) radio services, among others. The Telecom site rental division provides access to wireless infrastructure, primarily through infrastructure hosting and telecom equipment co-location, mainly for mobile network operators and other wireless and broadband telecom network operators. The Network services and other division offers connectivity services for a variety of telecom operators and radio communication, among others. The Company also develops 5th generation mobile networks (5G) through Alticom BV.
Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas is the parent company of a group engaged in sanitation services, cleaning, maintaining, purification and distribution of water, construction of highways, hydraulic works, marine works, air and rail transport infrastructure, urban developments, housing, non-residential buildings, office buildings, toll highways, parking garages, marinas and water treatment plants. Co. is also engaged in the manufacture and sale of cement and cement infrastructures, such as precast concrete elements; and in the financial markets, and real estate development, leasing and tourism.
Global Dominion Access SA is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the construction and engineering sector. The Company's activities are divided into two segments: Multi-technological Services, which offers design, implementation and maintenance of fixed and mobile telecommunications networks, manages sales and distribution processes for telecommunications carriers, as well as renders of inspection, maintenance, repair and renovation services for industrial and energy firms, and Solutions and EPCs, which executes turnkey Engineering-Procurement-Construction (EPC) projects, provides construction, repair and renovation of industrial heating installations, as well as develops processes and other technological and business solutions in numerous sectors. Its services are provided in three areas: Technology and Telecommunications (T&T), Industry and Renewable energies. It operates worldwide in Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa. The Company is a subsidiary of CIE Automotive SA.
Grifols is engaged in developing, manufacturing and distributing a range of plasma derivative products. Plasma derivatives are proteins found in human plasma, which once isolated and purified, have therapeutic value. These protein-based therapies extend the lives of individuals who suffer from chronic and acute conditions. Co. also specializes in providing infusion solutions, nutrition products, medical devices, diagnostic instrumentation and reagents for use in hospitals and clinics. Co.'s products and services are used by healthcare providers in approximately 100 countries. Co.'s business is organized into three divisions: Bioscience, Diagnostic, Hospital and Raw Materials.
International Airlines Group is an international scheduled airline and global premium airlines. Co.'s principal place of business is London with significant presence at Heathrow, Gatwick and London City airports.
Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA is a Spain-based company engaged in the operation of a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company focuses on the acquisition, management and rental of commercial properties located in the Iberian Peninsula, primarily in Spain. The Company's activities are divided into the following segments: Office buildings, operating a portfolio of office space; High-street retail, engaged in leasing retail stores; Shopping centers, engaged in managing department stores; Logistics, operating logistics warehouses and distribution centers, and Others. The Company's other activities include property management services rendered to third parties.
Obrascon Huarte Lain is an international concession and construction groups based in Spain. Co. maintains significant operations in 30 countries across all five continents. Co. is engaged in hospital and railway construction, transport infrastructure concessions, oil and gas, energy, solids handling and fire protection systems and international contracts. Co.'s operations are organized along four divisions: OHL Concesiones, OHL Construccion, OHL Industrial y OHL Desarrollos. Co. is also engaged in real state project developments of mixed use managed by the international hotel chains.
Sacyr is the parent company of a group engaged in the acquisition, development and construction of urban properties for their subsequent rental or resale. Co. primarily leases and sells office buildings and complexes, housing units, and shopping centers. Co. is also engaged in the operation of urban car parking facilities. Co. offers services related to the real estate industry such as technical assistance in energy savings, inventory management, architectural design, telecommunications management, property maintenance, as well as gardening and landscaping. Co. also provides consulting services in the real estate fund management sector.
Solaria Energia y Medio Ambiente manufactures both solar and thermal cells and panels, rolls out turnkey projects for large installations, operates solar plants and generates electricity through its owned plants.
Viscofan is the parent company of the Viscofan Group. Co. is divided into two major operational subgroups. The companies comprising the Naturin GmbH subgroup are engaged in the manufacture and distribution of artificial casings (small and big diameter collagen and plastics) for the meat industry. Through its wholly-owned subsidiary IAN, S.A., Co. also manufactures and distributes canned vegetables (asparagus, olives and tomato).
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