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IBERIAN DAILY 26 FEBRUARY + 4Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ACS, EBRO FOODS, FERROVIAL, INDRA, MELIÁ, NEINOR HOMES, REDEIA, SANTANDER.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 4Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Market stabilises
There was widespread recovery on European stock markets, which benefited from the better sentiment on the impact from AI and the economic cycle. In the STOXX 600, the biggest gains came in Basic Materials and Banks, whereas defensive sectors like Food and Household Goods ended with the biggest corrections. On the macro side, in Germany the final 4Q’25 GDP confirmed the preliminary data of 0.4% YoY. In the euro zone, January’s final inflation fell to 1.7% YoY, with the core figure remaining at 2.2%. In geopolitics, OPEC+ would be considering increasing production by +137,000 b/d starting in April. In US business results, Lowe’s was in line, The Mosaic released disappointing earnings and NVIDIA beat expectations.
In currencies, the euro remained stable at US$ 1.18 (this morning at 1.182). In raw materials, Brent crude futures moved within a range of US$ 71.76-70.62/barrel, consolidating the latest gains (this morning at US$ 71.00/barrel). Gold remained stable at US$ 5,190/oz (this morning flat).
In fixed income, the most significant move in sovereign debt was the rise in Japanese debt yields, with the 20Y bond near 3.0% after the latest appointments in the BoJ looking for flexible monetary and fiscal policies. In Germany, the 10Y bond closed near 2.70%.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with a slightly bearish slant. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.15% (the S&P 500 ended +0.45% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 -0.4%, Japan’s Nikkei +0.3% and South Korea’s Kospi +3.7%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn January’s M3 and February’s economic confidence index. In US 4Q’25 Results, Warner Bros, Autodesk y NetApp, among others, will release their earnings.



COMPANY NEWS

ACS. 4Q’25 results slightly below the consensus on operating level and better in cash. UNDERWEIGHT
The company released 4Q’25 results that were slightly below the consensus on the operating level (€ 853 M of EBITDA vs. € 867 M consensus and € 831 M BS(e); around +10% vs. 4Q’24). NFD fell by € 2.24 Bn on the quarter, closing with a net cash position of € 17 M (excl. IFRS16 and factoring), beating our estimate (€ 178 M of NFD) and favoured by the solid working capital performance (€ +1.56 Bn in 4Q’25 vs. € 1.34 Bn BS(e)) and divestitures. We do not rule out a negative slant to the reception in view of the lack of positive surprises, and after the stock has risen +112% over the past 12 months (+72% vs. IBEX). In any event, much of these results was already known after the release of Hochtief’s (~80% ACS; >75% EBITDA) and Abertis’s results (~46% ACS).

EBRO FOODS. 4Q’25 results beating expectations in EBITDA and with better margins. OVERWEIGHT
The 4Q’25 revenues came in below expectations (-7.1% vs. +2.0% BS(e) and +1.0% consensus) due to the rice division (-9.2% vs. +3.3% BS(e) and +2.8% consensus), affected by the deflation in raw materials. That said, EBITDA was a positive surprise (+3.8% vs. +1.0% BS(e) and +2.9% consensus), with the rice division once again being a surprise (+4.4% vs. +2.7% BS(e) and -4.5% consensus), leaving a margin of 15.8% (vs. 14% BS(e) and 13.7% consensus), with the current backdrop being especially relevant. As for NFD, it fell by around € -64 M with a NFD/EBITDA ratio of 1.3x (0.55x excl. put options with minority interests). We welcome the fact the company has managed to continue improving margins and beat expectations, and thus we expect the market to have a positive reaction, especially given the lacklustre recent performance (-2% vs. IBEX on the year).

FERROVIAL. Better 4Q’25 Results thanks to Construction but weaker in Highways. OVERWEIGHT
4Q’25 Results above expectations on the operating level (EBITDA € 426 M vs. €us374 M and € 377 M BS(e)) thanks to Construction, where EBITDA totalled € 200 M (vs. € 124 M consensus and € 126 M BS(e)) thanks to record margins (9.0% vs. 6.1% consensus).However, Highways came in below expectations (EBITDA € 239 M vs. € 260 M consensus; -2.4% vs. 4Q’24) due to the negative €/US$ FX, the sequential deterioration of traffic and higher tender costs. Net cash ex infra totalled € 1.34 Bn, better than our € 977 M estimate, fuelled by the dividend collection of projects. We do not rule out the possibility of a negative market reaction after the good share price performance (+44% in the past year; +3% vs. IBEX).

INDRA. FY2025 Results and guidance’26 above expectations. We raise our estimates. OVERWEIGHT
Better results on all levels (thanks mainly to Defence, Minsait and cash), beating its guidance’25 and increasing its targets’26 that are above our estimates and those of the consensus. EBIT’25 totalled € 517 M (+18% vs. 2024 and vs. +12.6% BS(e) and +13.4% consensus) and FCF’25 € 364 M (+11% vs. 2024). We expect a positive market reaction. The share Price has climbed +6.6% in 2026 (0% vs. IBEX) and +203% in the past year (+141% vs. IBEX). We will raise our estimates to include the better business performance (mainly Defence and Minsait), placing our T.P. Under Revision.

MELIÁ HOTELES. 4Q’25 results very much in line. Bookings’26 +10% vs. FY2025. OVERWEIGHT
4Q’25 results very much in line in both revenues (+0.7% vs. +0.9% BS(e) and -0.2% consensus) and EBITDA (+1.3% vs. +0.8% BS(e) and -0.5% consensus), although not meeting the operating improvement of +100bps in margin (26.2% in 2025 vs. 26.5% in 2024), which was already expected. RevPAR (PyA) rose +2.3% (in line), with prices prevailing vs. occupancy. America is the only region in negative territory, hit by the €/US$. The NFD/EBITDA ratio (ex IFRS 16) remains at 2.2x and the company continues to meet the target set ( € 20 Bn and ROTE ’28 >20%) but costs targets that if met would open to door to increase these targets in the long-term (+15% CAGR’25-28 in Net Profit). In other words, we believe that SAN could have been conservative. The bad news was a dividend below expectations (-25%), which reduces the yield expected from 2027 by around -2pp to 6%. Even though SAN has been one of the best performers in the sector in the past 3 months (+24% vs. +15% sector), the truth is that it still yields upside. Although SAN’s yield target is below expectations the stock is still trading at a ~13% discount to peers.