EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 01 OCTOBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: AENA, REPSOL, ROVI, SANTANDER, TALGO.

Shutdown in the US Govt.
European stock markets saw gains despite the US newsflow suggesting a government shutdown. In this regard, the Senate rejected the Republican party’s resolution which would have maintained Govt. financing through 21/11 as it did not include an extension to healthcare subsidies (Affordable Care Act), which could affect around 750,000 public jobs. In the STOXX 600, the best-performing sector was Household, with the mixed performance of Retail, whereas cyclical industries such as Energy for the second consecutive session and Travel&Leisure suffered the biggest drops. On the macro side, in Germany, September’s number of unemployed rose above expectations, September’s preliminary inflation rose more than expected and August’s retail sales slowed down unexpectedly. In the UK, the final 2Q’25 GDP improved to 1.4% QoQ. In the US, the Conference Board consumer confidence continued to fall, with 20% of consumers worried about difficulties in finding employment, whereas job openings (JOLTs) rose unexpectedly in August. In national politics, D. Trump announced an agreement with Pfizer to sell drugs at lower prices. From the Fed, L. Logan sees a market near full employment and little room to lower rates, whereas A. Goolsbee would prefer not to lower rates before the new round of tariffs are set. In Japan, the 3Q’25 Tankan manufacturing and non-manufacturing index improved in line with expectations for 3Q’25. Lastly, OPEC+ would be negotiating a production increase of between 411,000 and 500,000 b/d starting in November (vs. 137,000 in October), with the aim of increasing up to 1.65 M b/d in the medium-term, although this was later denied by the organisation.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open flat although the appreciation of the euro could have an impact throughout the session. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.5% (yesterday the S&P 500 ended +0.67% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are sliding (China’s CSI 300 is closed and Japan’s Nikkei -1.0%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn September’s final manufacturing PMI and September’s inflation and in the US September’s ADP private employment survey and August’s construction spending.

COMPANY NEWS

TALGO. Poor results, deteriorating vs. 1Q’25 and with increased debt. UNDERWEIGHT
1H’25 EBITDA stands at € -16.5 M, hit by the renegotiation of the DB contract and the finalization of the LACMTA project (already known). Excluding these impacts, 1H’25 EBITDA would have come in at € 23.4 M (-42.8% vs. -32.3% in 1Q’25), with a margin of 7.7% (vs. 8.8% in 1Q’25 and 11.8% in 1H’24). 1H’25 NFD rose to € 467 M (>10x NFD/EBITDA). Currently the company is in the process of strengthening its capital structure with the entry of Jainaga and the Basque consortium with a 29.8% stake in Pegaso (expected to be sealed before the end of the year). Despite the poor performance on the year (-18.4% in absolute terms and -51.8% vs. IBEX), the impact could be negative due to the deteriorating P&L statement, the rising debt and because the move to strengthen capital and refinance is taking longer than expected and is not yet official.