IBERIAN DAILY 24 FEBRUARY + 4Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: CAF, ENCE, ENDESA, METROVACESA, TELEFÓNICA.At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 4Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.
IBEX the one positive note
European stock markets showed a mixed reaction to Trump’s new protectionist measures (the periphery outperformed core countries), while companies exposed to the disruption from AI continue to be punished. In the STOXX 600, the best-performing sectors were defensive ones like Utilities and Household Goods, whereas sectors threatened by the AI transformation like Financial Services and Media ended with the biggest drops. On the macro side, in Germany the IFO improved more than expected in February. In Mexico, the GDP rose more than expected in 4Q’25, with 1.8% YoY growth. In the US, factory orders contracted more than expected. In trade matters, Trump once threatened to impose new tariffs, protected by other laws, for countries not complying with the agreements reached previously, while the US Govt. is facing an avalanche of lawsuits to recover the tariffs paid in 2025, and the EU has frozen sine die the trade agreement. In US business results, Domino’s Pizza released disappointing earnings, while Dominion Energy was in line.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains >+0.3%, with the oil sector underpinned by the new rises in Brent crude in view of the geopolitical uncertainty between the US and Iran. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.2% (the S&P 500 ended flat vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +1.0%, Japan’s Nikkei +0.9% and South Korea’s Kospi +2.1%).
Today in the US we will learn February’s Conference Board consumer confidence and December’s FHFA housing price index. In US 4Q’25 Results, Dr Pepper, Home Depot, Axon Enterprise, First Solar and HP, among others, will release their earnings.
COMPANY NEWS
CAF. We raise our estimates and T.P. to € 70.10/sh. Commercial momentum continues. OVERWEIGHT.
The excellent stock market performance over the past year (+68% in absolute terms and +25% vs. IBEX) is the reward for the group’s magnificent operating execution and its strong commercial momentum. Despite the rally, the fundamentals continue to support the investment case. We raise our estimates: (i) sales around +0.5% for 2026-29; (ii) EBIT around +3% in 2026-29, leaving a margin of 6% in 2027 (from 5.1% in 2024); (iii) we lower NFD by -7%, leaving a solid balance sheet (
Ence Energia Y Celulosa is engaged in the manufacture and commercialization of wood pulp and derivatives. Co. divides its activities into the following two business lines: Forest Division: Co. manages timberlands in South America and the Iberian Peninsula. Co. is involved in trading of wood, and supplies solid wood products including: plywood, sawn timber, parquet flooring and glued-edge paneling. Co. is involved in forest and environmental consulting. Pulp Division and Energy Production: Co. is engaged in the production of Eucalyptus globulus-based TCF and ECF paper pulp. Co. is also involved in the generation of electricity through biomass power producing plants.
Endesa is engaged in the production, transmission, distribution, and supply of electricity, through hydroelectric, fossil fuel, and nuclear generation. Co. is also engaged in the mining of coal for use in its fossil-fuel electric plants; mining research; land restoration, and environmental monitoring and control.
Metrovacesa SA, formerly Metrovacesa Suelo y Promocion SA, is a Spain-based real estate developer. The Company specializes in construction and sale of sustainable housing, both single-family and multi-family residential properties. Its activities also include promotion, urbanization and parceling of real estate in general, as well as real estate management for own benefit or on behalf of third parties. Its asset portfolio includes more than 6 million square meters of building land across Spain, as well as already developed properties in cities, such as Malaga, Almeria, Cordoba, Barcelona and Madrid, among others.
Telefonica is engaged in the provision of public or private telecommunications services, including ancillary or complementary telecommunications services or related services. Co.'s fixed business includes: traditional fixed telecommunication services, Internet and broadband multimedia services, data and business-aplications services, and wholesale services for telecommunication operators. Co. also provides a range of mobile and related services and products to consumer and business customers, including mobile voice services, value added services, mobile data and Internet services, wholesale services, corporate services, roaming, fixed wireless, and, trunking and paging.
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