EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 02 FEBRUARY + 4Q’25 RESULTS. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: FERROVIAL, NATURGY, REPSOL.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 4Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Ibex hits new record highs
Last week was marked by the earnings season in both Europe and the US, and the geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran did not prevent the Ibex from hitting new record highs. In the STOXX 600, the gains were led by Energy and Utilities, whereas Consumer Goods and Technology ended with the biggest corrections. On the macro side, in Germany, December’s import prices fell less than expected, January’s number of unemployed did not increase and January’s inflation rose to 2.1% in January (more than expected). In Spain, the 4Q’25 GDP provided a positive surprise, rising to +0.8% thanks to the solid performance in consumption and investments, whereas January’s inflation fell to 2.4% and the core figure repeated at the previous 2.6%. In the euro zone the preliminary 4Q GDP improved to 0.3% QoQ and closed 2025 with 1.5% growth YoY. in the US, December’s industrial production prices rose more than expected. There is another shutdown of the US Govt., awaiting the House of Representatives to approve the agreement reached on Friday in the Senate, and thus the shutdown will not have an impact. In China, the manufacturing and services PMIs fell below 50 in January (worse than expected). In geopolitics, the supreme leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, warned of the risk of a regional conflict, whereas Trump expects new talks to take place. In the monthly meeting, OPEC+ agreed to keep March’s production level unchanged. The election of K. Warsh to lead the Fed led the dollar to appreciate, and the rising margins from the CME led to a sell-off of commodities, especially gold and silver, which are down -5% and -10% today (down -20% and -39% since highs). In US business results, Chevron beat expectations, Exxon Mobile, Verizon and Colgate-Palmolive were in line and American Express released disappointing earnings.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would see a bearish opening, with cyclical companies linked to raw materials (in Basic Resources Acerinox and ArcelorMittal and in Energy Repsol, Total and ENI) faring worse after January’s good performance and also due to the sharp drops of gold, silver and copper mainly. Currently, S&P futures are down -1.30% (the S&P 500 ended -0.19% lower vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are sliding (China’s CSI 300 -1.02%, Japan’s Nikkei -1.14% and South Korea’s Kospi -5.02%).
Today in Germany we will learn December’s retail sales, in Spain January’s manufacturing PMI, in the euro zone January’s final manufacturing PMI and in the US January’s final manufacturing PMI and ISM and November’s construction expenses. In 4Q’25 US business results, Palantir and Walt Disney, among others, will release their earnings.