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IBERIAN DAILY 18 FEBRUARY + 4Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: MELIÁ HOTELS, MERLIN PROPERTIES, PUIG BRANDS.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 4Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

IBEX ready to attack 18,000 once again
European stock markets began the session hesitantly, but ended by recovering the momentum in a session marked by the talks between the US and Iran regarding Iran’s nuclear programme. In the STOXX 600, Real Estate, Pharma and Consumer Goods led the gains, with Basic Materials, Food and Energy posting the biggest losses. On the macro side, in the UK December’s ILO unemployment rate rose in line with expectations to 5.2%, with wage gains slowing their YoY advance more than expected. In Germany, February’s ZEW index fell unexpectedly, although the current conditions component rose. From the ECB, according to the Financial Times, C. Lagarde would not complete her 8-year mandate (through Oct’27) to make easier her replacement before the elections in France and Germany. In the US, February’s Empire manufacturing index fell less than expected and NAHB residential real estate confidence fell slightly. In US business results, Palo Alto beat expectations but cut its guidance.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with slight gains and with a mixed performance in cyclical and defensive sectors . Currently, S&P futures are up +0.2% (the S&P 500 ended practically flat vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 closed, Japan’s Nikkei +1.00% and South Korea’s Kospi closed).
Today in the UK we will learn January’s inflation and in the US the Fed meeting minutes, December’s durable goods orders, January’s industrial output, building permits and housing starts for November. In US 4Q’25 Results Moody’s, Booking, and eBay, among others, will release their earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

PUIG BRANDS, OVERWEIGHT
The FY2025 results beat expectations in adjusted EBITDA (+7.8% vs. +5.2% BS(e) and +5.1% consensus), meaning +50bps to the margin up to 20.7% (vs. around +20bps expected and target), with a significant acceleration of LfL sales in 4Q’25 (+9.8% vs. +6.3% expected and +6.1% in Q3), noteworthy in Fragrances (~71% sales; +6.4% LfL) and Makeup (19%; +26.5% LfL). In the medium term the company expects its growth to be higher than in the premium segment and a potential improvement to the EBITDA margin (not quantified), whereas for 2026 PUIG expects a stable margin following an exceptional 2025 (vs. +20.5% consensus). We adjust our estimates to include a scenario of normalised growth to +5.2% LfL in 2026-29e (vs. the previous +6.2%), lowering adjusted EBITDA’26-29e by -8%, and we roll over our model to 2026. We place our T.P. at € 23.70/sh. (-9% vs. previous and >+40% upside).
We expect a positive market reaction after the favourable 4Q’25 LfL and operating performance (the share price has climbed ~+9% in absolute terms in 2026; +6% vs. Ibex 35 and vs. +6% L’Oréal or -1% Interparfums).

4Q’25 Results highlights and rest of previews
Of the stocks releasing their results over the coming days, we highlight on the negative side Ferrovial (25/02), where despite the favourable operating performance in Highways, we expect significant headwinds from FX, and we believe the market will be demanding with these results, bearing in mind that the stock is trading near record highs.