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IBERIAN DAILY 03 JULY (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: NATURGY.

IBEX back above 14,000 points
European stock markets rallied, awaiting today’s employment data and with the euro returning below 1.18 against the dollar. The STOXX 600 sectors were a mixed bag (10/20 with gains), led by cyclicals like Basic Materials (sharp rise in copper due to early orders) and Autos, whereas Real Estate and Retail fell the most. On the macro side, in Spain June’s number of unemployed fell slightly less than expected, while Social Security registrations rose by 76,000 workers to a high of 21.86 million. In the US, the ADP private employment survey for June contracted unexpectedly, the worst data since March’23. The greater job losses came in professional services (-56,000), education/healthcare services (-52,000) and financial activities (-14,000). Meanwhile, June’s layoff figure (according to Challenger Layoffs) returned to normal levels. On another note, D. Trump’s budget law is on hold at the House of Representatives as the republicans are reluctant to accept the higher debt it entails. In Brazil, industrial output once again contracted in May, with the YoY rate disappointing. In China, Caixin services PMI dropped in June to 9-month lows. On the commercial front, D. Trump announced an agreement with Vietnam whereby it will impose s 20% tariffs to its direct exports and up to 40% to those products travelling across the country coming from other countries (mainly affecting China) in exchange for Vietnam’s elimination of its tariffs to the US.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains of around +0.2%, with cyclical sectors performing slightly worse in view of the release of the US employment data. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.1% (the S&P 500 ended +0.2% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 +0.5% and Japan’s Nikkei -0.1%).
Today in the UK and euro zone we will learn June’s final services PMI and in the US weekly jobless claims, non-farm job creation, the unemployment rate, salary gains and non-manufacturing ISM (all for June).
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