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IBERIAN DAILY 13 FEBRUARY + 4Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: REPSOL, TELEFÓNICA.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 4Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Doubts on AI profitability continue
European stock markets reversed the gains at the end of the session, pressured by the uncertainty surrounding margins in the US tech sector (the Nasdaq fell -2.0%) and by sales in commodities and cryptocurrencies. In the STOXX 600, the best-performing sectors were defensive ones like Telecoms and Food, whereas Banks and Technology ended with the biggest drops. On the macro side, in the UK the 4Q’25 GDP rose less than expected, closing with weak 1.0% growth in 2025. In the US, weekly jobless claims fell less than expected, while second-hand home sales contracted sharply in January. In geopolitics, the US and China could extend October’s trade agreement until the presidents are in Beijing in early April, while Trump would be considering the possibility of rolling back aluminium and steel tariffs due to their heavy cost for the population. In parallel, the House of Representatives approved (219 to 211) a motion to reject the tariffs placed on Canada, but with a very low probability of becoming law, given that it would be necessary to reach a 2/3 majority in both Houses to beat a presidential veto. In China, January’s housing prices sped up their YoY contraction. In US business results, Exelon, Applied Material and Expedia beat expectations, American Electric Power was in line and Airbnb and Coinbase released disappointing results.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with a slightly bearish slant. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.3% (the S&P 500 ended -0.6% lower vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are falling (China’s CSI 300 -1.1%, Japan’s Nikkei -0.9% and South Korea’s Kospi -0.4%).
Today in Spain we will learn January’s final inflation, in the euro zone the final 4Q’25 GDP and December’s trade balance, in the US January’s inflation and in Brazil December’s retail sales. In 4Q’25 US business results Moderna, Eversource and Public Storage, among others, will release their earnings.


COMPANY NEWS
4Q’25 Results highlights and rest of previews
Of the stocks releasing their results over the coming days, we highlight on the positive side: (i) Cellnex (27/02), where we expect the solid results to continue (especially better on the cash level), which would lead the company to reiterate its long-term guidance and therefore raise market confidence in the stock; and (ii) Ence (24/02), where despite the weakness expected in 4Q’25, we believe the messages for 2026 could be positive based on the continued growth in pulp prices and the improved remuneration for biomass.