Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2019 10 22

EXLS currently trades near corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 21.2x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to decline from 28% in 2018 to 17% by 2023, accompanied by 11% Uniform Asset growth going forward. Analysts have slightly less bearish expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to decline to 24% levels through 2020, accompanied by 7% Uniform Asset growth. Additionally, management is confident about their Analytics business, EBITDA trends, and the value of their SCIO acquisition. Current valuations appear to be pricing in overly bearish expectations for EXLS, and should they see profitability remain stable or expand, as recent profitability trends and positive management sentiment would suggest, material upside would be warranted.

VG Q2 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA decline, but management is confident about growth, cloud adoption, and product offerings

LPLA Q2 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to decline, but management is confident about operating leverage, growth, and their pipeline

G Q2 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for slight compression in Uniform ROA, but management is confident about margins, revenues, and their market size


EXLS, G, LPLA, VG, ADP, AERI, ALGT, BWA, CME, CSL, DVA, HFC, HGV, LEA, LKQ, NLSN, NWSA, SERV, UAA, WTR
Underlyings
Aerie Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Aerie Pharmaceuticals is an ophthalmic pharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of therapies for the treatment of open-angle glaucoma and other diseases of the eye. The company has an approved product, Rhopressa? and advanced-stage product candidate, Roclatan?, which both are designed to reduce elevated intraocular pressure in patients with open-angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension. The company is also developing two preclinical sustained-release implants focused on retinal diseases, which include AR-13503 for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration and related diseases of the retina; and AR-1105, a preclinical dexamethasone steroid implant.

ALLEGIANT TRAVEL CO

Allegiant Travel is a travel company. The company's travel services and products are: scheduled service air transportation, which provides scheduled air transportation on flights mainly between cities and other destinations; ancillary air-related products and services, which provides unbundled air-related services and products in conjunction with air transportation; third party products and services, which provides third party travel products such as hotel rooms and ground transportation for sale to its passengers; and fixed fee contract air transportation, which provides air transportation through fixed fee agreements and charter service on a year-round and ad-hoc basis.

Automatic Data Processing Inc.

Automatic Data Processing is a provider of cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solutions to employers, providing solutions to businesses of various sizes. The company's two reportable business segments are Employer Services, which provides a range of technology-based HCM solutions, including payroll services, benefits administration, talent management, HR management, workforce management, compliance services, insurance services and retirement services; and Professional Employer Organization, which provides clients with employment administration outsourcing solutions through a relationship in which employees who work for a client are co-employed by the company and the client.

BorgWarner Inc.

BorgWarner is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a global product provider in technology solutions for combustion, hybrid and electric vehicles. The company manufactures and sells these products worldwide, primarily to original equipment manufacturers of light vehicles (passenger cars, sport-utility vehicles, vans and light trucks). The company's segments are: Engine, which provides turbochargers, eBoosters, timing systems, emissions systems, thermal systems, gasoline ignition technology, cabin heaters, battery heaters and battery charging; and Drivetrain, which provides rotating electrical components, power electronics, clutching systems, control modules and all-wheel drive systems.

Carlisle Companies Incorporated

Carlisle Companies designs, manufactures and markets commercial roofing, energy, agriculture, mining, construction, aerospace and defense electronics, medical technology, transportation, among others. The company's segments are: Carlisle Construction Material, which provides ethylene propylene diene monomer rubber, thermoplastic polyolefin and polyvinyl chloride membrane and metal roofing systems; Carlisle Interconnect Technologies, which provides wire, cable, connectors, contacts and cable assemblies, and satellite communication equipment; Carlisle Fluid Technologies, which provides liquid, powder, sealants and adhesives finishing equipment and system components; and Carlisle Brake and Friction.

CME Group Inc. Class A

CME Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company exchanges provides a range of global benchmark products across asset classes based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange (FX), agricultural, energy and metal commodities. The company provides futures and options on futures trading across asset classes through its subsidiary, Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (CME) Globex platform, cash and repo fixed income trading via BrokerTec, and cash and OTC FX trading via EBS. In addition, the company operates central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing, a division of CME. The company also provides optimization, reconciliation and processing services through TriOptima, Traiana and Reset.

DaVita Inc.

DaVita is a healthcare provider focused on transforming care delivery to improve quality of life for patients. The company's United States dialysis business provides kidney dialysis services for patients suffering from end stage renal disease (ESRD). The company's dialysis services include outpatient hemodialysis services, hospital inpatient hemodialysis services, home-based dialysis services, ESRD laboratory services, and management services. The company's ancillary services and strategic initiatives businesses include disease management services, physician services, ESRD Seamless Care Organization joint ventures, clinical research programs, vascular access services, as well as international dialysis operations.

Essential Utilities Inc.

Aqua America is the holding company for regulated utilities providing water or wastewater services in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, Illinois, North Carolina, New Jersey, Indiana, and Virginia. The company's operating subsidiary, Aqua Pennsylvania, Inc., provides water or wastewater services and its service territory is located in the suburban areas in counties north and west of the City of Philadelphia as well as in other counties in Pennsylvania. The company's other regulated utility subsidiaries provide similar services in other states. In addition, the company's market-based activities are conducted through Aqua Infrastructure, LLC and Aqua Resources Inc.

ExlService Holdings Inc.

ExlService Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an operations management and analytics company. The company's operations management services involve the transfer to the company's business operations of a client such as claims processing, clinical operations, or financial transaction processing, after which the company administers and manages those operations for its client on an ongoing basis, or in case of consulting, consulting services related to transformation services, including digital transformation services. The company's Analytics services focus on driving business outcomes for its customers by generating data-driven insights across various parts of its customers' business.

Genpact Limited

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.

Hilton Grand Vacations is a timeshare company engaged in developing, marketing, selling and managing timeshare resorts under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand. The company's operations mainly consist of: selling vacation ownership intervals for it and third parties; financing and servicing loans provided to consumers for their timeshare purchases; operating resorts; and managing its points-based Hilton Grand Vacations Club and Hilton Club exchange program. The company has properties located in vacation destinations such as the Orlando, Las Vegas, Hawaiian Islands, New York City, Washington D.C. and South Carolina. The company's segments are: real estate sales and financing and resort operations and club management.

HollyFrontier Corporation

HollyFrontier is a petroleum refiner that produces products such as gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, other lubricant products, and specialty and modified asphalt. The company's segments are: Refining, which involves the purchase and refining of crude oil and wholesale and marketing of refined products; Lubricants and Specialty Products, which includes the production of lubricant products such as base oils, white oils, other products and finished lubricants; and the company's subsidiary, Holly Energy Partners, L.P., which owns and operates logistics and refinery assets consisting of petroleum product and crude oil pipelines, terminals, tankage, loading rack facilities and processing units.

Lear Corporation

Lear is a supplier to the automotive industry. The company supplies seating, electrical distribution systems and electronic modules, as well as related sub-systems, components and software, to automotive manufacturers. The company has two segments: Seating, which consists of the design, development, engineering, just-in-time assembly and delivery of seat systems, and the design, development, engineering and manufacture of seat components; and E-Systems, which consists of the design, development, engineering and manufacture of electrical distribution systems, and electronic control modules, electrification products, connectivity products and software solutions for the cloud, vehicles and mobile devices.

LKQ Corporation

LKQ is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides alternative vehicle collision replacement products and alternative vehicle mechanical replacement products. The company is also a provider of alternative vehicle replacement and maintenance products in the United Kingdom, Germany, the Benelux region (Belgium, Netherlands, and Luxembourg), Italy, Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, Austria, and other European countries. In addition to its wholesale operations, the company operates self service retail facilities across the United States that sell recycled automotive products from end-of-life-vehicles. The company is also a distributor of specialty vehicle aftermarket equipment and accessories.

LPL Financial Holdings Inc.

LPL Financial Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the retail financial advice market and independent broker-dealer. The company's product and solution access includes: Commission-Based Products, which include variable and fixed annuities, mutual funds, equities, and insurance, among others; Fee-Based Advisory Platforms and Support, which include wrap-fee programs, mutual fund asset allocation programs, financial planning services, and retirement plan consulting services; and Cash Sweep Programs, which manage their clients' cash balances through a money market sweep vehicle involving money market fund providers and insured sweep vehicles involving banks.

News Corporation Class A

News is a media and information services company. The company comprises businesses across a range of media, including news and information services, subscription video services in Australia, book publishing and digital real estate services, that are distributed under brands, including The Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, The Australian, Herald Sun, The Sun, The Times, HarperCollins Publishers, Foxtel, FOX SPORTS Australia, realestate.com.au, realtor.com?, talkSPORT and others. The company distributes its content to consumers across platforms consisting of print and television, as well as digital platforms including websites, applications for mobile devices and tablets, social media and e-book devices.

Nielsen Holdings Plc

Terminix Global Holdings Inc

ServiceMaster Global Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides services to residential and commercial customers in the termite, pest control, cleaning and restoration markets, operating through a network of company-owned locations and franchise and license agreements. The company's portfolio of brands includes Terminix (residential termite and pest control), Terminix Commercial (commercial termite and pest control), Copesan (commercial national accounts pest management), ServiceMaster Restore (restoration), ServiceMaster Clean (commercial cleaning), Merry Maids (residential cleaning), Furniture Medic (cabinet and furniture repair) and AmeriSpec (home inspections).

Under Armour Inc. Class A

Under Armour is engaged in the development, marketing and distribution of apparel, footwear and accessories for men, women and youth. The company provides HEATGEAR?, which is designed to be worn in warm to hot temperatures under equipment or as a single layer; and COLDGEAR?, which is designed to wick moisture from the body while circulating body heat from hot spots to help maintain core body temperature. The company's footwear products include running, basketball, cleated sports, slides, training, and outdoor. The company provides digital fitness subscriptions, along with digital advertising through its MapMyFitness, MyFitnessPal and Endomondo applications.

Vonage Holdings Corp.

Vonage Holdings is a provider of cloud communications services for businesses and consumers. The company also provides a suite of residential communication solutions. For its Business customers, the company provides cloud-based Unified Communications as a Service solutions, comprised of integrated voice, text, video, data, collaboration, and mobile applications over its Session Initiation Protocol based Voice over Internet Protocol network. The company also provides Communications Platform as a Service solutions by embedding communications into apps, websites and business processes. For its Consumer customers, the company provides voice and messaging services and other features on a variety of devices.

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