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Valens Research
  • Valens Research
FFIV F5 Networks Inc... (Technology)

FFIV - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 15

F5 Networks, Inc. (FFIV) currently trades above historical and corporate averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 28.4x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E'). At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to gradually recover back to 2019 levels of 28%, accompanied by 5% Uniform asset growth. Meanwhile, analyst expectations for 21% Uniform ROA and 4% Uniform asset growth imply a stock price approaching $157, representing 23% equity downside for the firm. Moreover, the firm's mos...

FFIV F5 NETWORKS INC. (Technology)
Valens Research
  • Valens Research

FND - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 15

Floor & Decor Holdings (FND:USA) currently trades above corporate averages and at a historical high relative to Uniform earnings, with a 41.0x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E'). At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to expand to historical highs, accompanied by 12% Uniform asset growth. However, if sustainable in perpetuity, analyst expectations for 13% Uniform ROA and 37% Uniform asset growth imply a stock price of about $160, representing 25% equity upside for the firm. ...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research
REGI Renewable Energ... (Oil & Gas)

REGI - Valens Credit Report - 2021 10 15

Credit markets are materially overstating REGI's credit risk with a YTW of 4.988%, relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 2.618% and an Intrinsic CDS of 123bps. Meanwhile, Moody's is grossly overstating the firm's fundamental credit risk, with its highly speculative B1 credit rating nine notches lower than Valens' IG3+ (A1) credit rating. Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mixed signals for creditors. Specifically, REGI's compensation framework should focus management on margin expansion...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research
ACN ACCENTURE CL A (Industrial Goods & Services)

ACN - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 15

Accenture plc (ACN:USA) currently trades at a historical high relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 28.7x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in bullish expectations for the firm, and management is confident about their cloud migration, client solutions, and bookings guidance. Specifically, management is confident their managed security services are providing much-needed protection and talent for clients, and that they are helping clients transform their digital con...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research
BMY Bristol-Myers S... (Health Care)

BMY - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 15

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY:USA) currently trades at a historical low relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 5.4x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in bearish expectations for the firm, and management may haveconcerns about growth targets, cell therapy demand, and vector shortages. Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to expand their immunology franchise, achieve revenue growth targets, and continue strong commercial performance. In a...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research
NCR NCR CORP. (Technology)

NCR - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 14

NCR Corporation (NCR:USA) currently trades below historical averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 12.1x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in bearish expectations for the firm, and management may have concerns about revenue growth, the LibertyX and Cardtronics acquisitions, and crypto payment solutions. Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to sustain revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA margin expansion, and working capital improvements...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research
TGT TARGET CORP. (Retail)

TGT - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 14

Target Corporation (TGT:USA) currently trades below corporate, yet above recent averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 19.5x Uniform P/E (Fwd V/E'). At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to improve, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth. Meanwhile, analyst expectations for 15% Uniform ROA and 1% Uniform asset growth would imply a stock price of about $209, representing marginal 9% equity downside for the firm. Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings ca...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research
TJX TJX COS. (Retail)

TJX - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 14

The TJX Companies, Inc. (TGT:USA) currently trades near corporate and above historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 23.9x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E'). At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to reach new highs, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth going forward. However, analyst expectations for 21% Uniform ROA and 3% Uniform asset shrinkage would imply a stock price closer to $45, representing approximately 30% equity downside for the firm. Moreove...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research
ILMN ILLUMINA INC. (Health Care)

ILMN - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 14

Illumina, Inc. (ILMN:USA) currently trades above corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 44.0x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in bullish expectations for the firm, but management may be concerned about the sustainability of margin improvements, shipment levels, and the potential of their Popseq pipeline. Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to sustain NextSeqDx record shipments, high NovaSeq order volume, and non-GAAP o...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research
PG Procter & Gambl... (Personal & Household Goods)

PG - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 13

The Procter & Gamble Company (PG:USA) currently trades above corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 28.4x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market has bullish expectations for the firm, but management may have concerns about organic sales growth, plastic reduction initiatives, and the sustainability of market share gains. Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to reduce plastic use through bottle design optimization, deliver balanced top and...

PG PROCTER & GAMBLE CO. (Personal & Household Goods)
Valens Research
  • Valens Research
VREX VAREX IMAGING (Health Care)

VREX - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 13

Varex Imaging Corporation (VREX:USA) currently trades below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 14.9x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in bullish expectations for the firm, but management may have concerns about industrial and medical demand, gross margins, and supply chain issues. Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to sustain improvements in gross margin and manufacturing productivity, maintain their cash balance, ...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research
TWTR TWITTER (Technology)

Valens Credit Weekly Insights - 2021 10 13

Valens Credit Research team highlights TWTR, which has a compelling bond offering that we believe the market is currently mispricing, with strong fundamentals, favorable management alignment, and an actionable trade.

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

ATGE - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 13

Adtalem Global Education Inc. (ATGE:USA) currently trades at a historical high relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 25.3x Uniform P/E. Even at these levels, the market is pricing in bearish expectations for the firm, and management may have concerns about the strength of education demand, nursing enrollment, and the Walden acquisition. Specifically, management may have concerns about the overall sustainability of demand for their programs and offerings as well as the potential of ...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research
INTU INTUIT INC. (Technology)

INTU - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 13

Intuit Inc. (INTU:USA) currently trades at a historical high relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 49.6x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in bullish expectations for the firm, but management may have concerns about revenue guidance, Credit Karma synergies, and their 5 Big Bets strategy. Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to meet full year fiscal 2022 guidance, achieve Online Ecosystem revenue growth targets, and sustain combined platfor...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research
NVRO NEVRO (Oil & Gas)
WIX WIX.COM (Chemicals) ... (+21)

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - D2021 10 12

LPL Financial (LPLA) has created a powerful platform to empower independent and smaller scale wealth advisors to compete with the big players like Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley. Uniform Accounting highlights the company's operational improvements that the market is missing, indicating equity upside. AMD Q2 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to expand, but management may have concerns about data center revenue growth, EPYC processors, and operating c...

NVRO NEVRO (Oil & Gas)
WIX WIX.COM (Chemicals)
PYPL PAYPAL HOLDINGS (Construction & Materials)
PWR QUANTA SERVICES INC. (Industrial Goods & Services)
MCD MCDONALDS CORP (Food & Beverage)
LLY ELI LILLY & CO. (Personal & Household Goods)
LHCG LHC GROUP (Health Care)
KFY KORN FERRY (Health Care)
HD HOME DEPOT INC. (Retail)
EEFT EURONET WORLDWIDE INC. (Travel & Leisure)
CVX CHEVRON (Insurance)
CF CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS (Real Estate)
CB CHUBB LTD (Financial Services)
MRVL MARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUP LTD. (Technology)
ELY CALLAWAY GOLF CO. (Technology)
LPLA LPL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS
SJM J.M. SMUCKER CO.
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
VRM VROOM
U U CITY
Valens Research
  • Valens Research
QCOM QUALCOMM INC. (Technology)

QCOM - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 12

QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM:USA) currently trades near historical averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 16.8x Uniform P/E. Even at these levels, markets are pricing in bullish expectations for the firm, but management may have concerns about their product mix, revenue growth, and relationship with Apple. Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to grow revenues in Q4, sustain gross margin expansion, and meet 5G handset sales volume guidance. In additio...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research
DELL Dell Technologi... (Technology)

DELL - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 12

Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL:USA) currently trades well below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with an 11.2x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in bearish expectations for the firm, and management may have concerns about market share gains, supply chain constraints, and CSG and ISG demand. Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to sustain commercial client and storage share gains, maintain momentum in the midrange storage seg...

DELL DELL TECHNOLOGIES (Technology)
Valens Research
  • Valens Research
SQ SQUARE CLASS A (Industrial Goods & Services)

SQ - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 13

Square, Inc. (SQ:USA) is currently trading at a historical high relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 146.9x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in bullish expectations for the firm, but management may have concerns about the Afterpay acquisition integration, the Seller ecosystem growth potential, and their organic innovation strength. Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to capitalize on e-commerce and in-person expansion opportunities thro...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research
AES AES CORP. (Utilities)

AES - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 12

The AES Corporation (AES:USA) currently trades above corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 34.1x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in bullish expectations for the firm, but management may have concerns about supply chain issues, the sustainability of demand, and the execution of transformational modernization programs. Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to execute their grid modernization, utility modernization, and de...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research
MCD MCDONALDS CORP (Travel & Leisure)

MCD - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 11

McDonald's Corporation (MCD:USA) currently trades above corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 29.2x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in bullish expectations for the firm, but management may be concerned about marketing momentum, margin expansion, and dine-in capacity restrictions. Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to sustain digital sales growth, growth in Japan, China and the U.S., and margin expansion. In addition,...

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