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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2019 04 17

BZH currently trades near recent lows relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 6.7x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to decline from 11% in 2018 to 5% in 2023, accompanied by 1% Uniform Asset growth going forward. However, analysts have bullish expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to expand to 13% through 2020, accompanied by 3% Uniform Asset shrinkage. Moreover, management is confident in structural plan options, their balanced growth strategy, and short-term macro housing trends. Should BZH just sustain profitability near recent averages, as positive management sentiment would suggest, upside would be warranted.

BZH Q1 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for material Uniform ROA declines, but management is confident in their plan options, growth strategy, and macro trends

BYND Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for a positive inflection and material improvement in Uniform ROA, driven by BYND's potential to compete with traditional competitors and appeal to meat-eaters

LYFT Embedded Expectations Analysis – Despite historical unprofitability, market expectations for LYFT are for a material expansion and positive inflection in Uniform ROA

AMKR, AMT, BBY, BIIB, CCL, DNR, FORR, LEVI, LLL, MDLZ, NCI, PAYX, PRFT, SBAC, SITE
Underlyings
American Tower Corporation

American Tower is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a real estate investment trusts and an independent owner, operator and developer of multitenant communications real estate. The company's primary business is the leasing of space on communications sites to wireless service providers, radio and television broadcast companies, wireless data providers, government agencies and municipalities and tenants in a number of other industries. The company also provides tower-related services, including site acquisition, zoning and permitting and structural analysis, which primarily support the company's site leasing business, including the addition of new tenants and equipment on its sites.

Amkor Technology Inc.

Amkor Technology is a provider of outsourced semiconductor packaging and test services, which include semiconductor wafer bump, wafer probe, wafer back-grind, package design, packaging, system-level and final test and drop shipment services. The company's Advanced Products include flip chip chip scale packages, wafer-level packages and flip chip ball grid array packages, while its Mainstream Products include leadframe packages, substrate-based wirebond packages and micro-electro-mechanical systems packages. The company provides its services to integrated device manufacturers, fabless semiconductor companies and contract foundries.

Beazer Homes USA Inc.

Beazer Homes USA is engaged as a homebuilder. The company's homebuilding operations consist of the design, sale, and construction of single-family and multi-family homes. The company purchases land or obtains an option to purchase land, which, in either case, requires certain site improvements prior to home construction. When available in certain markets, the company also buys finished lots that are ready for home construction. The company has investments with land developers, other homebuilders and financial partners to acquire land positions, to manage its risk profile and to utilize its capital base. The company also acts as the general contractor for the construction of its new home communities.

Best Buy Co. Inc.

Best Buy provides computing and mobile phones, consumer electronics, appliances, entertainment, services and other products. The company operates two reportable segments: Domestic, which is comprised of the operations in all states, districts and territories of the U.S. under various brand names including Best Buy, bestbuy.com, Best Buy Direct, Best Buy Express, Best Buy Mobile, Geek Squad, GreatCall, Magnolia and Pacific Kitchen and Home; and International, which is comprised of all operations in Canada and Mexico under the brand names Best Buy, Best Buy Express, Best Buy Mobile, Geek Squad and the domain names bestbuy.ca and bestbuy.com.mx.

Biogen Inc.

Biogen is a biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, developing and delivering therapies for people living with neurological and neurodegenerative diseases as well as related therapeutic adjacencies. The company's main growth areas include multiple sclerosis (MS) and neuroimmunology; Alzheimer's disease and dementia; neuromuscular disorders, including spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis; movement disorders, including Parkinson's disease; and ophthalmology. The company's marketed products include TECFIDERA, AVONEX, PLEGRIDY, TYSABRI, VUMERITY and FAMPYRA for the treatment of MS, SPINRAZA for the treatment of SMA and FUMADERM for the treatment of severe plaque psoriasis.

Carnival Corporation

Denbury Resources Inc.

Denbury Resources is an independent oil and natural gas company. The company's operations are focused in two main operating areas: the Gulf Coast and Rocky Mountain regions. The company's properties with proved and producing reserves in the Gulf Coast region are situated in Mississippi, Texas, Louisiana and Alabama, and in the Rocky Mountain region are situated in Montana, North Dakota and Wyoming.

Forrester Research Inc.

Forrester Research is an independent research, data, and advisory services firm. The company's products and services categories are: Forrester Research, which provides clients with published research and decision tools; Forrester Connect, which help clients connect with peers and the company's personnel, and to coach executives to foster change within their organizations; Forrester Analytics, which provides products and services designed to provide fact-based customer insights to its clients; Forrester Consulting, which provides advisory and project consulting services that deliver insights and recommendations; and Forrester Events, which hosts events in various locations in North America, Europe and Asia.

L3 Technologies Inc

L3 Technologies is a defense technology company. The company's segments include: Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance systems, which provides engineering, modernization and sustainment solutions for military and various government aircraft, ground support equipment and other platforms; Communications and Networked Systems, which provides network and communication systems, communications products, radio frequency components, satellite communication terminals and space, microwave and telemetry products; and Electronic Systems, which provides a range of products and services, including components, products, subsystems, systems and related services to military and commercial customers.

Levi Strauss & Co. Class A

Levi Strauss & Co. is an apparel company. Under its Levi's?, Dockers?, Signature by Levi Strauss & Co.? and Denizen? brands, the company designs, markets and sells, directly or through third parties and licensees - products that include jeans, casual and dress pants, tops, shorts, skirts, jackets, footwear, and related accessories for men, women and children around the world. The company licenses its Levi's? and Dockers? trademarks for a variety of product categories in multiple markets in each of its regions, including footwear, belts, wallets and bags, outerwear, sweaters, dress shirts, kidswear, sleepwear and hosiery. The company's operates its business via three geographic regions: Americas, Europe and Asia.

Lyft

Lyft operates a peer-to-peer marketplace for on-demand ridesharing in the United States and Canada. The company provides Ridesharing Marketplace, which facilitates lead generation, billing and settlement, support, and related activities to enable drivers to provide their transportation services to riders. The company also offers a network of shared bikes and scooters in various cities to address the needs of riders for shorter routes; Express Drive program, a flexible car rentals program which connects drivers who need access to a car with third-party rental car companies; and concierge for organizations to manage the transportation needs of their customers and employees.

Mondelez International Inc. Class A

Mondelez International sells food and beverage products. The company makes and sells primarily snacks, including biscuits (cookies, crackers and salted snacks), chocolate, gum and candy, as well as various cheese and grocery and powdered beverage products. The company's portfolio includes snack brands such as Cadbury, Milka and Toblerone chocolate; Oreo, belVita and LU biscuits; Halls candy; Trident gum and Tang powdered beverages. The company's operations and management structure are organized into four operating segments: Latin America; Asia, Middle East and Africa; Europe; and North America. The company sells its products to supermarket chains, wholesalers, supercenters, value stores and other retail food outlets.

Navigant Consulting Inc.

Navigant Consulting is a global professional services firm. The company's segments include: Healthcare, which provides consulting services and business process management services; Energy, which provides solutions that help clients transform their businesses in changing energy environment, manage complexity, accelerate operational performance, meet compliance requirements and transform their organizations and systems; and Financial Services Advisory and Compliance, which provides strategic, operational, risk management, investigative and compliance advisory services to clients primarily in the financial services industry, including financial and insurance institutions.

Paychex Inc.

Paychex is a provider of integrated human capital management (HCM) solutions for payroll, benefits, human resource (HR), and insurance services for small- to medium-sized businesses. The company's portfolio of HCM and employee benefit-related services include: payroll processing services; payroll tax administration services; employee payment services; regulatory compliance services (new-hire reporting and garnishment processing); HR Solutions Administrative Services Organization; retirement services administration; HR administration services, including time and attendance; other HR services and products; business services; Professional Employer Organization services; and insurance services.

Perficient Inc.

Perficient is a digital transformation consulting firm serving customers throughout North America. The company's solutions include custom applications, management consulting, analytics, commerce, content management, business integration, portals and collaboration, customer relationship management, business process management, platform implementations, enterprise data and business intelligence, enterprise performance management, enterprise mobile, cloud services, digital marketing, and DevOps, among others. The company also provides education and mentoring services to its clients. The company conducts IBM and Oracle-certified training, where it provides its clients a range of courses and other education services.

SBA Communications Corp. Class A

SBA Communications is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an owner and operator of wireless communications infrastructure, including tower structures, rooftops, and other structures that support antennas used for wireless communications. The company's operations are in the U.S. and its territories. In its site leasing business, the company leases antenna space to wireless service providers on towers that the company owns or operates and manages rooftop and tower sites for property owners under various contractual arrangements. In its site development business, the company assists wireless service providers in developing and maintaining their own wireless service networks.

SiteOne Landscape Supply Inc.

SiteOne Landscape Supply is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a national wholesale distributor of landscape supplies in the U.S. and Canada. The company's customers are primarily residential and commercial landscape personnel who focuses on the design, installation and maintenance of lawns, gardens, golf courses and other outdoor spaces. Through its North American network, the company provides irrigation supplies, fertilizer and control products, landscape accessories, nursery goods, hardscapes, outdoor lighting and ice melt products. The company also provides consultative services, as well as a series of technical and business management seminars that it calls SiteOne University.

The Hackett Group

Hackett Group is an advisory and technology consulting firm. The company's services include benchmarking, executive advisory, business transformation, enterprise performance management, working capital management, implementing, training and advisory to global business services. The company also provides services in business strategy, operations, finance, human capital management, strategic sourcing, procurement, and information technology, including its Oracle and SAP practices. The company has engagements in a variety of industries, including automotive, consumer goods, financial services, technology, life sciences, manufacturing, media and entertainment, retail, telecommunications, transportation and utilities.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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