Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
MSCI ACWI and EM Breakouts; Upgrading Korea to OverweightWe remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $120-$121 (up from 5500 and $115). ACWI-US is now breaking out above 6-month resistance to all-time highs and EEM-US is breaking above $47, further confirming our bullish outlook. $124.50 is now short-term support to watch on ACWI-US; this is where we would expect to see support on a pullback, but a break below it would likely mean a test of $120-$121.
Upgrading Korea to Overweight; Remain Overweight Germany, select European Countries, and the U.S. We are upgrading Korea (KOSPI) to overweight; we discussed how the KOSPI was breaking out of a 10-month base in our latest Int'l Compass (May 30, 2025), highlighting several large-cap Financials and other stocks to buy. The KOSPI has exploded higher since, and is now reversing its 2-year RS downtrend -- buy any pullbacks. We also remain overweight Germany (DAX) and the U.S. (S&P 500). We are downgrading "broader Europe (EURO STOXX 50)" due to continued RS consolidation, while also upgrading various European countries to overweight that were previously encompassed by our broad Europe overweight. Other European countries to overweight include Greece (ATHEX Composite) and Ireland (ISEQ All-Share).
Emerging Markets Breaking Out. MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM-US) is breaking above $46.50-$47 resistance, continuing the bullish short-term trend. We are buyers on this breakout, with Korea being our top country to buy (see above)... see chart below.
Crude Oil Breaking Out. WTI crude oil is reclaiming the crucial $65 level and we are buyers as long as it remains above $64 (discussed Tuesday in this week's U.S. Macro Vision). We are also recommending buys today within the Energy Sector for the first time in quite a while, as we have generally avoided the Sector since 2023... see page 2.
Actionable Themes: Energy, Health Care, Technology, and Communications. We highlight attractive names within these Sectors. We also highlight two additional attractive Korean names: kakaopay (377300-KR) and Samsung Card (029780-KR); we initially recommended buying kakaopay in our 5/30/25 Int'l Compass... see pages 3-16.
Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen's activities are divided into three main business segments: the Refining Segment that comprises crude oil processing as well as wholesale and retail trade in refinery products. The Petrochemical Segment that encompasses production and sale of petrochemicals and chemicals. The Retail Segment that comprises of sales at petrol stations. Co.'s basic products include gasolines, diesel oils, light heating oil, Jet fuel, liquid gas, polyetylene, polypropylene, benzene, butadiene, acetone, phenol, glycols, toluen, ortoxylene.
SBM Offshore is a holding company. Co. provides floating production solutions to the offshore energy industry, over the full product life-cycle. Co.'s main activities are the design, supply, installation, operation and life extension of floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessels. Other products include semi-submersibles, tension-leg platforms, floating production storage and offloading liquefied natural gas, turret mooring systems, brownfield and offshore (off) loading terminals. As of Dec 31 2015, Co.'s fleet consisted of 10 FPSOs, two floating storage and offloadings, one mobile offshore production unit, one semisubmersible in operation worldwide.
TechnipFMC is global leader in oil and gas projects, technologies, systems, and services. Co. offers subsea, surface, onshore, and offshore solutions for oil and gas projects. Co. serves customers worldwide. With Co.'s technologies and production systems, integrated expertise, and comprehensive solutions, Co. is transforming Co.'s clients' project economics. Co. is uniquely positioned to deliver greater efficiency across project lifecycles from concept to project delivery and beyond. Through innovative technologies and improved efficiencies, Co.'s offering unlocks new possibilities for Co.'s clients in developing their oil and gas resources.
Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.
Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.
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