Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.57 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Buy the Pullback

Our outlook remains bullish following the S&P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics; the path of least resistance is higher. We have discussed for the past two weeks (since our 10/22/24 Compass) how we would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, and we are finally getting a pullback. We expect to see support on the SPX at 5600-5670, and we will remain bullish as long as 5600 support holds. Once past the election, starting as early as today or tomorrow, we believe there will be a strong end-of-year rally that will extend into the early part of 2025. End-of-year seasonal tendencies are extremely bullish during years where the SPX has already rallied significantly (as it has YTD).

Constructive Market Dynamics. When it comes down to it, the four main reasons we are bullish are: (1) High yield spreads are at 3-year narrows, (2) the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are all above their rising 2
Underlyings
AECOM

AECOM designs, builds, finances and operates infrastructure assets for governments, businesses and organizations. The company provides: planning, consulting, architectural and engineering design services to commercial and government clients in transportation, facilities, environmental, energy, water and government markets; construction services, including building construction and energy, infrastructure and industrial construction; as well as program and facilities management and maintenance, training, logistics, consulting, technical assistance, and systems integration and information technology services, for agencies of the United States government and for other national governments.

ARCADIS N.V.

Cementos Pacasmayo SAA ADR

Eastern Platinum

Eastern Platinum is a platinum group metal producer engaged in the mining, exploration and development of platinum group metal properties located in various provinces in South Africa. All of Co.'s properties are situated on the western and eastern limbs of the Bushveld Complex.

EMCOR GROUP

EMCOR Group is an electrical and mechanical construction and facilities services firm. In addition, the company provides building services and industrial services. The company's services are provided to its customers through its operating subsidiaries and joint venture entities. The company engages in providing construction services relating to electrical and mechanical systems in various types of facilities and in providing various services relating to the operation, maintenance and management of facilities. The company also provides its construction services indirectly by acting as a subcontractor to general contractors, systems suppliers, construction managers, developers, property managers and other subcontractors.

Martin Marietta Materials Inc.

Martin Marietta Materials is a natural resource-based building materials company. The company supplies aggregates (crushed stone, sand and gravel) through its network of quarries, mines and distribution yards. The company also provides cement and downstream products, namely, ready mixed concrete, asphalt and paving services. The company conducts its Building Materials business through three segments: Mid-America Group, Southeast Group and West Group. The Mid-America and Southeast Groups provide aggregates products only. The West Group provides aggregates, cement and downstream products. The company also has the Magnesia Specialties segment, which includes its magnesia-based chemicals and dolomitic lime businesses.

MasTec Inc.

MasTec is an infrastructure construction company operating mainly throughout North America across a range of industries. The company's segments include: Communications, which performs engineering, construction, maintenance and customer fulfillment activities related to communications infrastructure; Oil and Gas, which performs engineering, construction and maintenance services on oil and natural gas pipelines and processing facilities; Electrical Transmission, which performs engineering, construction and maintenance of electrical transmission lines and substations; and Power Generation and Industrial, which performs installation and construction of power facilities.

Quanta Services Inc.

Quanta Services is a provider of contracting services, delivering infrastructure solutions for the electric power, energy and communications industries in the United States, Canada, Australia, Latin America and select other international markets. The company has two segments: Electric Power Infrastructure Services, which provides network solutions to customers in the electric power industry and services that support the development of renewable energy generation; and Pipeline and Industrial Infrastructure Services, which provides infrastructure solutions to customers involved in the development, transportation, distribution, storage and processing of natural gas, oil and other products.

Summit Materials Inc. Class A

Summit Materials is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a construction materials company. The company produces and sells aggregates, cement, ready-mix concrete, asphalt paving mix and concrete products and owns and operates quarries, sand and gravel pits, cement plants, cement distribution terminals, ready-mix concrete plants, asphalt plants and landfill sites. The company is engaged in paving and related services. The company has operations in various states across the United States and in British Columbia, Canada. The company operates a municipal waste landfill in its East segment, and has construction and demolition debris landfills and liquid asphalt terminal operations in its West and East segments.

Vulcan Materials Company

Vulcan Materials is a supplier of construction aggregates and a producer of asphalt mix and ready-mixed concrete. The company has four segments: Aggregates, which produces and sells aggregates (crushed stone, sand and gravel, sand, and other aggregates) and related products and services; Asphalt, which produces and sells asphalt mix in Alabama, Arizona, California, New Mexico, Tennessee and Texas, and includes asphalt construction paving in Alabama, Tennessee and Texas; Concrete, which produces and sells ready-mixed concrete; and Calcium, which consists of a Florida facility that mines, produces and sells calcium products.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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