Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 47.38 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Commodities Improving As US Dollar Simmers

Despite a more mixed and highly rotational market across Sectors, market-caps, and growth/value, not one Sector or widely followed index is breaking down; to the contrary, more are beginning to break out to new all-time highs. Overall, the weight of the evidence remains positive, and our outlook remains constructive for the weeks and months ahead; buy pullbacks.

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow, Mid-Caps, Russell 2000. Large-cap (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow) and mid-cap indexes (S&P 600) remain bullish, closing out the past week at new all-time highs. Small-caps are more mixed, as the Russell 2000 (IWM) continues a healthy consolidation of the substantial gains that it logged over the past 12-13 months -- potentially gathering-up steam for another leg higher. $219 is short-term support on the IWM followed by the very significant $208 level. As for the S&P 500, it is getting extended and is approaching potential resistance at the megaphone pattern (see red trendlines below). This alone is no reason to be bearish as we believe pullbacks should be treated as buying opportunities. A constructive outlook is appropriate as long as the S&P 500 is above major 4000-4020 support... see chart below.
Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. Commodities (Bloomberg Commodity, crude oil, copper) display bullish inflections and could very well be on their way to new 2021 highs. This would be a bullish sign for Energy, Materials, and the broad market -- especially if the US dollar continues to weaken... see pages 2-3.
Big Picture Trends. The large-cap value vs. growth ratio is back at an important inflection point; If value was going to start outperforming again, now would be a logical time for it to happen. The 10-year Treasury yield has stabilized, however the longer-term path of least resistance remains higher. Banks (KRE, KBE) have been coiling tight for a full month and we are watching for a potential breakout. Breadth remains healthy with the A/D line on the Russell 3000 touching new highs last week. ... see page 3.
Underlyings
AECOM

AECOM designs, builds, finances and operates infrastructure assets for governments, businesses and organizations. The company provides: planning, consulting, architectural and engineering design services to commercial and government clients in transportation, facilities, environmental, energy, water and government markets; construction services, including building construction and energy, infrastructure and industrial construction; as well as program and facilities management and maintenance, training, logistics, consulting, technical assistance, and systems integration and information technology services, for agencies of the United States government and for other national governments.

Affiliated Managers Group Inc.

Affiliated Managers Group is a global asset management company with equity investments in boutique investment management firms (Affiliates). The company provides centralized capabilities to its Affiliates, including strategy, marketing and distribution, and product development. Through its Affiliates, the company provides strategies designed to assist institutional, retail and clients worldwide in achieving their investment objectives. The company provides boutique investment management services to retail investors through advisory and sub-advisory services to return-oriented mutual funds, Undertakings for the Collective Investment of Transferable Securities, collective investment trusts and other retail products.

Apollo Global Management Inc. Class A

Apollo Global Management is an alternative investment manager. The company's primary business is to raise, invest and manage credit, private equity and real assets funds as well as strategic investment accounts. The company has three business segments: Credit, which invests in non-control corporate and structured debt instruments including performing, stressed and distressed investments across the capital structure; Private equity, which invests in control equity and related debt instruments, convertible securities and distressed debt investments; and Real assets, which invests in real estate equity and infrastructure equity for the acquisition and recapitalization of real estate and infrastructure assets.

Arabian Cement Co

Arabian Cement Co SAE is an Egypt-based company engaged in the manufacture of cement and concrete. Its products include: Clinker, the raw material for the production of Portland types of cement, used in different percentages depending on the properties sought for the final product; Al Mosalah Cement, used for concrete with special needs, concrete pump, shotcrete, mortar and supporting floors, among others; Al Tahrir Cement, used for general construction purposes, general concrete works, reinforced and ordinary concrete, buildings, tanks, reservoirs and culverts; El Sadd Cement, used in all concrete works that are exposed to sea water or soils of high sulphate content, and Ready Mix Concrete, offered through the Company's subsidiary, Andalus Ready Mix Concrete. The Company offers its products in a variety of formats such as, bagged, bulk, big bags and in containers, among others.

Boise Cascade Co.

Boise Cascade is a wood products manufacturer and building materials distributor. The company's line of products is used primarily in new residential construction, residential repair-and-remodeling projects, light commercial construction, and industrial applications. The company has two reportable segments. The company's Wood Products segment manufactures laminated veneer lumber, I-joists, and laminated beams, which are collectively referred to as engineered wood products (EWP). The company's Building Materials Distribution segment sells a line of building materials, including oriented strand board, plywood, lumber, general line items such as siding, composite decking, metal products, insulation, and roofing, and EWP.

BWX Technologies Inc.

BWX Technologies is a manufacturer of nuclear components, a developer of nuclear technologies and a service provider. The company operates three segments: Nuclear Operations Group, which engineers, designs and manufactures precision naval nuclear components, reactors and nuclear fuel for the U.S. Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration's Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program; Nuclear Services Group, which provides services including nuclear materials processing and management and operating services; and Nuclear Power Group, which designs and manufactures commercial nuclear steam generators, heat exchangers, pressure vessels, reactor components and other auxiliary equipment.

Domtar Corporation

Domtar is engaged in designing, manufacturing, marketing and distributing a range of fiber-based products including communication papers, specialty and packaging papers and absorbent hygiene products. Co. is also a marketer and producer of a broad line of incontinence care products as well as infant diapers. Co. operates the following business segments: Pulp and Paper, which consists of the design, manufacturing, marketing and distribution of communication, specialty and packaging papers, as well as softwood, fluff and hardwood market pulp; and Personal Care, which consists of the design, manufacturing, marketing and distribution of absorbent hygiene products.

Dycom Industries Inc.

Dycom Industries is a provider of specialty contracting services. The company supplies telecommunications providers with a portfolio of specialty services, including program management; planning; engineering and design; aerial, underground, and wireless construction; maintenance; and fulfillment services for telecommunications providers. Additionally, the company provides underground facility locating services for various utilities, including telecommunications providers, and other construction and maintenance services for electric and gas utilities. The company supplies the labor, tools, and equipment necessary to provide these services to its customers.

EMCOR GROUP

EMCOR Group is an electrical and mechanical construction and facilities services firm. In addition, the company provides building services and industrial services. The company's services are provided to its customers through its operating subsidiaries and joint venture entities. The company engages in providing construction services relating to electrical and mechanical systems in various types of facilities and in providing various services relating to the operation, maintenance and management of facilities. The company also provides its construction services indirectly by acting as a subcontractor to general contractors, systems suppliers, construction managers, developers, property managers and other subcontractors.

Fluor Corporation

Fluor is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides engineering, procurement, construction, fabrication and modularization, operations, maintenance and asset integrity, as well as project management services. The company serves a set of industries including oil and gas, chemicals and petrochemicals, mining and metals, transportation, power, life sciences and manufacturing. The company is also a service provider to the U.S. federal government and governments abroad; and it performs operations, maintenance and asset integrity activities for industrial clients. The company has four segments: Energy & Chemicals; Mining, Industrial, Infrastructure & Power; Diversified Services; and Government.

International Paper Company

International Paper is a producer of renewable fiber-based packaging, pulp and paper products with manufacturing operations in North America, Latin America, Europe, North Africa, India and Russia. The company's segments are: Industrial Packaging, which manufactures containerboard, such as linerboard, medium, whitetop, recycled linerboard, recycled medium and saturating kraft; Global Cellulose Fibers, which produces fluff pulp for making absorbent hygiene products like baby diapers, feminine care, adult incontinence and other non-woven products; and Printing Papers, which produces printing and writing papers, such as uncoated papers for use in copiers, desktop and laser printers and digital imaging.

Invesco Ltd.

Jacobs Engineering Group Inc.

Jacobs Engineering Group provides services including consulting, technical, scientific and project delivery for the government and private sector. The company's lines of business are: Critical Mission Solutions, which provides cybersecurity, data analytics, software application development, enterprise and mission information technology, systems integration and other technical consulting solutions to government agencies as well as aerospace, automotive and telecom customers; and People and Places Solutions, which provides end-to-end solutions for its clients' projects, whether connected mobility, water, smart cities, manufacturing or the environment.

Janus Henderson Group PLC

Janus Henderson Group is a global investment manager. Co. manages a range of investment products for institutional and retail investors, across five capabilities, being European Equities, Global Equities, Global Fixed Income, Multi-Asset and Alternatives, including Private Equity and Property. Management operates across product lines, distribution channels and geographic regions. All investment product types are sold in most, if not all, of these regions and are managed in various locations. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. had total assets under management of £101.00 billion.

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation

Louisiana-Pacific is a provider of building solutions serving the new home construction, repair and remodeling and outdoor structures markets. The company has four segments: siding, which includes LP SmartSide? Strand and Fiber trim and siding, as well as LP Outdoor Building Solutions? products for outdoor buildings; oriented strand board (OSB), which manufactures and distributes OSB structural panel products; engineered wood products, which include LP SolidStart? I-Joist, Laminated Veneer Lumber, and other related products; and South America, which manufactures and distributes OSB structural panel and siding products in South America and certain export markets.

LPL Financial Holdings Inc.

LPL Financial Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the retail financial advice market and independent broker-dealer. The company's product and solution access includes: Commission-Based Products, which include variable and fixed annuities, mutual funds, equities, and insurance, among others; Fee-Based Advisory Platforms and Support, which include wrap-fee programs, mutual fund asset allocation programs, financial planning services, and retirement plan consulting services; and Cash Sweep Programs, which manage their clients' cash balances through a money market sweep vehicle involving money market fund providers and insured sweep vehicles involving banks.

Mercer International Inc.

Packaging Corporation of America

Packaging Corporation of America is a producer of containerboard products and a producer of uncoated freesheet paper. The company's segments include: Packaging, which produces a variety of corrugated packaging products, including shipping containers, multi-color boxes and displays, and honeycomb protective packaging, as well as produces packaging for meat, fresh fruit and vegetables, processed food, beverages, and other industrial and consumer products; Paper, which manufactures and sells papers, including both commodity and specialty papers; and Corporate and Other, which includes transportation assets, such as rail cars and trucks, to transport the company's products to and from its manufacturing sites.

Quanta Services Inc.

Quanta Services is a provider of contracting services, delivering infrastructure solutions for the electric power, energy and communications industries in the United States, Canada, Australia, Latin America and select other international markets. The company has two segments: Electric Power Infrastructure Services, which provides network solutions to customers in the electric power industry and services that support the development of renewable energy generation; and Pipeline and Industrial Infrastructure Services, which provides infrastructure solutions to customers involved in the development, transportation, distribution, storage and processing of natural gas, oil and other products.

Resolute Forest Products Inc.

Resolute Forest Products is engaged in the forest products industry, with a range of products, including market pulp, tissue, wood products, newsprint and specialty papers. The company's segments are: Market pulp, which includes virgin pulp and recycled bleached kraft pulp; Tissue, which manufactures a range of tissue products for the away-from-home and at-home markets; Wood products, which produce dimension spruce-pine-fir lumber and provides wood chips to its pulp and paper mills in Canada; Newsprint, which sells newsprint; and Specialty papers, which composed of uncoated mechanical papers, including supercalendered paper and white paper, as well as uncoated freesheet papers.

SEI Investments Company

SEI Investments is holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of investment processing, investment management and investment operations solutions. The company's segments are: private banks, which provides outsourced investment processing and investment management platforms; investment advisors, which provides investment management and investment processing platforms; institutional investors, which provides investment management and administrative outsourcing platforms; investment managers, which provides investment operations outsourcing solutions; and investments in new businesses, which focuses on providing investment management solutions to families residing in the U.S.

Sonoco Products Company

Sonoco Products is a manufacturer of industrial and consumer packaging products and a provider of packaging services. The company's segments are: Consumer Packaging, which includes round composite cans, shaped rigid paperboard containers, fiber and plastic caulk/adhesive tubes, aluminum, steel and peelable membrane easy-open closures for composite and metal cans; Paper and Industrial Converted Products, which include recycled paperboard, chipboard, tubeboard, lightweight corestock, boxboard, linerboard, corrugating medium, edgeboard, paper grades, and adhesives; Display and Packaging, which include point-of-purchase displays; and Protective Solutions, which include packaging and components.

Veritiv Corp

Veritiv is a business-to-business distributor of packaging, facility solutions, print and publishing products and services. Co has the following reportable segments: Packaging, which provides standard as well as custom packaging solutions; Facility Solutions, which sources and sells cleaning, break-room and other supplies such as towels, tissues, wipers and dispensers, can liners, commercial cleaning chemicals, soaps and sanitizers; Print, which sells and distributes commercial printing, writing, copying, digital, specialty products, graphics consumables and graphics equipment; and Publishing and Print Management, which sells and distributes coated and uncoated commercial printing papers.

W. P. Carey Inc.

W. P. Carey is an internally-managed diversified real estate investment trust (REIT). The company's business operates in two segments: Real Estate, in which the company invests in commercial real estate properties that are net-leased to tenants, primarily located in the U.S. and Northern and Western Europe; and Investment Management, in which the company manages tjhe portfolios of certain non-traded investment programs through its investment management business, non-traded REITs that have invested in lodging and lodging-related properties, and a private limited partnership formed for the purpose of developing, owning, and operating student housing properties and similar investments in Europe.

WestRock Company

WestRock is a provider of paper and packaging solutions for consumer and corrugated packaging markets. The company partners with its customers to provide paper and packaging solutions. The company's operating and business locations are in North America, South America, Europe, Asia and Australia. The company's segments include: Corrugated Packaging, which consists of the company's containerboard mills, corrugated packaging and distribution operations, as well as its merchandising displays and recycling procurement operations; Consumer Packaging, which consists of the company's consumer mills, food and beverage and partition operations; and Land and Development, which sells real estate primarily in the Charleston, SC region.

Weyerhaeuser Company

Weyerhaeuser is a real estate investment trust. The company's business segments are: Timberlands, which provides delivered logs (grade logs and fiber logs), timber, recreational leases and other products; Real Estate, Energy and Natural Resources (ENR), in which Real Estate sells timberland tracts for recreational, conservation, commercial or residential purposes, whereas ENR sells rights to explore, extract and sell construction aggregates (rock, sand and gravel), industrial materials and oil and natural gas; and Wood Products, which provides structural lumber, oriented strand board, wood products, other products, and complementary building products.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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