Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 43.45 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Local Low in Place; Russell 2000 (IWM) Holds at $245

Our outlook as of last week (3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25). With that said, signs point to a local low being made yesterday after indexes went from heavily red, to firmly green as Trump signaled the war with Iran is nearing an end; Russell 2000 (IWM) held at 4+ year base support of $245, while S&P 500 futures (ES) held at its 200-day MA and Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ) held above 6-month support at 24,000 late Sunday night. Despite this likely short-term bottom, we still believe a breakout above 7000 is unlikely on SPX, and we would be reducing exposure on rallies. Our intermediate-term bullish outlook has been in place since our 5/14/25 Compass. We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6480-6520 and IWM is above $245; we would turn b
Underlyings
Alto Ingredients Inc

Andersons Inc.

Andersons is a company rooted in agriculture. The company conducts business across North America in the grain, ethanol, plant nutrient and rail sectors. The company's operations are classified into four reportable business segments: Grain, which provides grain marketing, risk management and corn origination services to its customers and affiliated ethanol facilities; Ethanol, which purchases and sells ethanol, provides facility operations, risk management, and ethanol; Plant Nutrient, which provides warehousing, packaging and manufacturing services to nutrient producers and other distributors; and Rail, which leases, repairs, and sells various types of railcars, locomotives and barges.

ARCADIAN PARTNERS LP PFD

CF Industries Holdings Inc.

CF Industries Holdings is a global fertilizer and chemical company. The company's principal nitrogen fertilizer products are anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution and ammonium nitrate. The company's other nitrogen products include diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid and aqua ammonia, which are sold primarily to its industrial customers, and compound fertilizer products, which are solid granular fertilizer products for which the nutrient content is a combination of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. The company serves its customers in North America through its production, storage, transportation and distribution network.

CVR Energy Inc.

CVR Energy is a holding company. The company is engaged in the petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing industries through its holdings in CVR Refining, LP (CVR Refining) and CVR Partners, LP (CVR Partners). CVR Refining is an independent petroleum refiner and marketer of transportation fuels. CVR Partners produces and markets nitrogen fertilizers in the form of urea ammonium nitrate and ammonia. The company's segments include: Petroleum, which includes refineries located in Coffeyville, KS and Wynnewood, OK and supporting logistics assets in the region; and Nitrogen Fertilizer, which includes nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing facilities located in Coffeyville, KS and East Dubuque, IL.

Delek US Holdings Inc

Delek US Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the downstream energy business focused on petroleum refining, the transportation, storage and wholesale distribution of crude oil, intermediate and refined products and convenience store retailing. The company's segments are: refining, which processes crude oil and other feedstocks for the manufacture of transportation motor fuels; logistics, which gathers, transports and stores crude oil and markets, distributes, transports and stores refined products; and retail, which includes the operations of Alon USA Energy, Inc.'s convenience store sites located primarily in central and West Texas and New Mexico.

Green Plains Inc.

Green Plains is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an ethanol producer. The company has four operating segments: ethanol production, which includes the production of ethanol, distillers grains and corn oil; agribusiness and energy services, which includes grain handling and storage, commodity marketing and merchant trading for company-produced and third-party ethanol, distillers grains, corn oil, natural gas and other commodities; food and ingredients, which includes cattle feeding and food-grade corn oil operations; and partnership, which includes fuel storage and transportation services.

Intrepid Potash

LyondellBasell Industries NV

LyondellBasell Industries is a chemical company. Co.'s chemicals businesses consist of processing plants that convert liquid and gaseous hydrocarbon feedstocks into plastic resins and other chemicals, and used by its customers to manufacture a range of products including food packaging, home furnishings, automotive components, paints and coatings. Co.'s refining business consists of its Houston refinery, which processes crude oil into products such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Co. manages its operations through five operating segments: Olefins and Polyolefins - Americas; Olefins and Polyolefins - Europe, Asia, International; Intermediates and Derivatives; Refining; and Technology.

Marathon Petroleum Corporation

Marathon Petroleum is an independent petroleum refining and marketing, retail and midstream company. The company's segments include: Refining and Marketing, which refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries, purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products; Retail, which sells transportation fuels and convenience products in the retail market across the U.S.; and Midstream, which transports, stores, distributes and markets crude oil and refined products via refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats and barges, gathers, processes and transports natural gas, and gathers, transports, fractionates, stores and markets natural gas liquids.

Murphy USA Inc.

Murphy USA is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company's business consists primarily of the marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise through its retail stores. The company's retail stores are located in the Southeast, Southwest and Midwest United States. The company's business also includes certain product supply and wholesale assets, including product distribution terminals and pipeline positions. The company purchases fuel from oil companies, independent refiners, and other marketers, and it sells fuel to its customers. In addition to the motor fuel sold at the company's stores, its stores carry a selection of snacks, beverages, tobacco products and non-food merchandise.

Nutrien Ltd.

Nutrien Ltd is Canada-based crop nutrient producer and distributer of potash, nitrogen and phosphate products for agricultural, industrial and feed customers worldwide. The Company is focused on retail, potash, nitrogen and phosphate mining and processing operations. The Company's retail operations serve growers in a number of countries across the United States, Canada, South Africa, Australia and South America. The Company operates six potash mines in Saskatchewan and has a mine in New Brunswick in care-and-maintenance mode. The Company operates integrated phosphate mining and processing facilities, as well as a number of smaller upgrading plants in the United States.

Par Pacific Holdings Inc

Par Pacific Holdings owns and operates energy and infrastructure businesses. The company's refining segment consists of a refinery in Kapolei, HI, that produces ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD), gasoline, jet fuel, marine fuel, low sulfur fuel oil, and other associated refined products. The company's refinery in Newcastle, WY, produces gasoline, ULSD, jet fuel, and other associated refined products and the company's refinery in Tacoma, WA, produces distillate, gasoline, asphalt, and other associated refined products. The company's retail segment operates retail outlets in Hawaii, Washington, and Idaho. The company's logistics segment owns and operates terminals, pipelines, a single-point mooring, and trucking operations.

PBF Energy Inc. Class A

PBF Energy is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged as an independent petroleum refiner and supplier of unbranded transportation fuels, heating oil, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants and other petroleum products in the U.S. The company operates in two business segments: refining, which the company produces a variety of products at each of its refineries such as gasoline, ultra-low-sulfur diesel, heating oil, jet fuel, lubricants, petrochemicals and asphalt; and logistics, which through its PBF Logistics LP subsidiary, the company owns or leases, operates, develops and acquires crude oil and refined petroleum products terminals, pipelines, storage facilities and similar logistics assets.

Phillips 66

Phillips 66 is an energy manufacturing and logistics company with midstream, chemicals, refining, and marketing and specialties businesses. The company's segments include: Midstream, which provides crude oil and refined petroleum product transportation, terminaling and processing services, as well as natural gas and natural gas liquids transportation, storage, processing and marketing services; Chemicals, which manufactures and markets petrochemicals and plastics on a worldwide basis; Refining, which refines crude oil and other feedstocks into petroleum products; and Marketing and Specialties, which purchases for resale and markets refined petroleum products, mainly in the United States and Europe.

REX American Resources Corporation

REX American Resources is a holding company. Through a wholly owned subsidiary REX I.P., LLC, the company entered into a joint venture with Hytken HPGP LLC to file and defend patents for eSteam technology relating to heavy oil and oil sands production methods. The company has two reportable segments, ethanol and by-products, which is a renewable fuel source produced by processing corn and other biomass through a fermentation process that creates combustible alcohol that can be used as an additive or replacement to fossil fuel based gasoline; and refined coal, which applies separate chemicals to convert feedstock coal into refined coal.

Somec

Somec SpA is an Italy-based holding company, which designs and manufactures glass envelopes for cruise ships and special architectural projects. The Company provides products, systems and services based on clients' needs. It supplies prefabricated balconies, balcony sliding and hinged doors, balcony automatic doors, balcony balustrades and partitions, as well as wheelhouse windows, glass walls for public spaces, windscreens, special glazing for solarium, skywalks and skylights, fire-rated doors and glazing. Through its subsidiaries, the Company operates in the shipyards, in dry-docks and navigation to guarantee the product installation, renovation and maintenance. The Company operates in Italy, Germany, Spain, Finland, France, Japan, Australia, North and Central America.

Valero Energy Corporation

Valero Energy is an international manufacturer and marketer of transportation fuels and petrochemical products. The company's segments include: Refining, which includes its refining operations, the associated marketing activities, and logistics assets that support its refining operations; Ethanol, which includes its ethanol operations, the associated marketing activities, and logistics assets that support its ethanol operations; and Renewable Diesel, which includes the operations of its joint ventture, Diamond Green Diesel Holdings LLC, which owns and operates a renewable diesel plant in Norco, LA.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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