Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 47.71 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Upgrading Consumer Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow

Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&P 500 (SPX) as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023. In late-July (7/30/24 Compass) we discussed expectations for a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and at this point it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months from our selected 7/17/24 starting point, until the market decides which way this consolidation resolves. We have always said that this consolidation could end up being a significant topping pattern, and we continue to keep a close eye on April 2000 and August 2007 topping analogs which have tracked this current consolidation phase quite well -- not to mention the similar backdrops to today that includes a new Fed cutting cycle, recession indicators going off (Sahm and SRI, which both moved deeper into "recession zone" following Friday's August employment report), and the yield curve un-inverting. Of course, there are plenty other concerning developments, the latest being fresh multi-month RS highs for defensive Sectors, and failed breakouts on the Dow, equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP), Materials (XLB), and Industrials (XLI). We are already overweight Utilities, and we are also upgrading other defensive Sectors today to overweight -- Staples (XLP), Real Estate (XLRE), and Health Care (XLV). Stick with defensives as the SPX appears poised to test its 200-day MA or 5100-5200 area.

List of Concerns Continues to Grow. Failed breakouts on the Dow, equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP), Materials (XLB), and Industrials (XLI) and new multi-month RS highs for defensive Sectors (Utilities, Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate) are the latest on a well-established list of concerning market dynamics that continues to support our defensive posture. We have not seen defensive Sectors outperform like this at any other time in over two years. Additional concerns: WTI crude oil displays a major breakdown below $71 (a recessionary signal), most indexes are below resistance with many forming potential head-and-shoulders tops (SPX, QQQ, SMH, IJH, IJR, IWM, XRT, XBI, and EEM), and recession indicators (Sahm rule, SRI) have moved deeper into "recession zone." The dwindling list of market dynamics that are in the bulls' favor include Financials (XLF) still holding its breakout level ($44), high yield spreads still (barely) below 380bps, and healthy breadth. We expect this "bull" list to continue to dwindle... see charts below and pages 2-4.
In today's report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care: CS-21 Tobacco, Large-Cap, CS-22 Tobacco, Small-Cap, RE-11 REITs, Storage, and HC-29 Hospitals... see pages 15-25.
Underlyings
Altria Group Inc

Altria Group is a holding company. The company's subsidiaries include: Philip Morris USA Inc., which is engaged in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes; John Middleton Co., which is engaged in the manufacture and sale of machine-made cigars and pipe tobacco; Sherman Group Holdings, LLC and its subsidiaries, which are engaged in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes and the sale of cigars; and UST LLC, which through its subsidiaries, including U.S. Smokeless Tobacco Company LLC and Ste. Michelle Wine Estates Ltd., is engaged in the manufacture and sale of smokeless tobacco products and wine. The products of the company's tobacco subsidiaries include smokeable tobacco products and machine-made cigars.

British American Tobacco PLC ADS

Community Health Systems Inc.

Community Health Systems is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company operates general acute care hospitals and outpatient facilities. The company provides healthcare services through the hospitals that it owns and operates and affiliated businesses in non-urban and selected urban markets. Services provided through the company's hospitals and affiliated businesses include general acute care, emergency room, general and specialty surgery, critical care, internal medicine, obstetrics, diagnostic, psychiatric and rehabilitation services. The company also provides additional outpatient services at urgent care centers, occupational medicine clinics, imaging centers, cancer centers and ambulatory surgery centers.

CubeSmart

CubeSmart is a self-administered and self-managed real estate company focused primarily on the ownership, operation, management, acquisition, and development of self-storage properties in the U.S. The company's self-storage facilities provide storage space for its residential and commercial customers. The company's customers rent storage cubes for their use on a month-to-month basis. Additionally, some of the company's stores provide outside storage areas for vehicles and boats. The company's stores are designed to accommodate both residential and commercial customers, with features such as aisles and load-bearing capabilities for truck access.

EXTRA SPACE STORAGE INC

Extra Space Storage is a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust, which is engaged in owning, operating, managing, acquiring, developing and redeveloping self-storage properties. Substantially all of the company's business is conducted through Extra Space Storage LP. The company operates in two segments: self-storage operations; and tenant reinsurance. Co's self-storage operations activities include rental operations of wholly-owned stores. Tenant reinsurance activities include the reinsurance of risks relating to the loss of goods stored by tenants in the company's stores.

HCA Healthcare Inc

HCA Healthcare is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, partnerships and joint ventures, the company owns and operates hospitals and related health care entities. Most of the company's general, acute care hospitals provide medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic services and emergency services. The general, acute care hospitals also provide outpatient services such as outpatient surgery, laboratory, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology and physical therapy. The company's psychiatric hospitals provide therapeutic programs including child, adolescent and adult psychiatric care, adolescent and adult alcohol and drug abuse treatment and counseling.

Imperial Brands PLC

National Storage Affiliates Trust

National Storage Affiliates Trust is a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust focused on the self storage sector. The company serves as the sole general partner of its operating partnership subsidiary, NSA OP, LP (operating partnership), to conduct its business, which is focused on the ownership, operation, and acquisition of self storage properties located within metropolitan statistical areas throughout the U.S. The company also owns certain of its self storage properties through other consolidated limited partnership subsidiaries of its operating partnership.

Philip Morris International Inc.

Philip Morris International is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a tobacco company engaged in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes, smoke-free products and associated electronic devices and accessories, and other nicotine-containing products in markets outside the United States. The company's portfolio comprises international and local brands including Marlboro, which is complemented in the premium-price category by Parliament. The company's other international cigarette brands are Bond Street, Chesterfield, L&M, Lark and Philip Morris. The company also owns various local cigarette brands, such as Dji Sam Soe, Sampoerna A and Sampoerna U in Indonesia, and Fortune and Jackpot in the Philippines.

Public Storage

Public Storage is a real estate investment trust. The company's business activities include: Self-storage Operations, which acquires, develops, owns and operates self-storage facilities that provide storage spaces for lease on a month-to-month basis, for personal and business use; Ancillary Operations, which reinsures policies against losses to goods stored by customers in the company's self-storage facilities and sells merchandise, mainly locks and cardboard boxes, at its self-storage facilities; and Investment in PS Business Parks Inc. (PSB), in which the company has an equity interest in PSB that owns, operates, acquires and develops commercial properties, mainly multi-tenant flex, office, and industrial parks.

Tenet Healthcare Corporation

Tenet Healthcare is a healthcare services company. Through its subsidiaries, partnerships and joint ventures, including USPI Holding Company, Inc., the company operates hospitals, surgical hospitals and outpatient centers. In addition, the company's Conifer Holdings, Inc. (Conifer) subsidiary provides healthcare business process services in the areas of hospital and physician revenue cycle management and care solutions to healthcare systems, as well as individual hospitals, physician practices, self-insured organizations, health plans and other entities. The company has three reportable segments: Hospital Operations and other; Ambulatory Care; and Conifer.

Turning Point Brands

Turning Point Brands is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged as an independent provider of Other Tobacco Products. The company operates in three segments: Smokeless products, which manufactures and markets moist snuff and contract for and market loose leaf chewing tobacco products; Smoking products, which markets and distributes cigarette papers and related products, make-your-own (MYO) cigar wraps, MYO loose cigar smoking tobacco, cigars, and pipe tobaccos; and NewGen products, which markets and distributes liquid vapor products, tobacco vaporizer products, and certain other products without tobacco and/or nicotine.

Universal Health Services Inc. Class B

Universal Health Services owns and operates, through its subsidiaries, acute care hospitals and outpatient facilities and behavioral health care facilities. The company owns and/or operates inpatient facilities and outpatient and other facilities located in several states including, Washington, D.C., the United Kingdom, and Puerto Rico. Services provided by the company's hospitals include general and specialty surgery, internal medicine, obstetrics, emergency room care, radiology, oncology, diagnostic care, coronary care, pediatric services, pharmacy services and/or behavioral health services. The company's reportable operating segments consist of acute care hospital services and behavioral health care services.

Vector Group Ltd.

Vector Group is a holding company. The company is engaged principally in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes in the U.S. through its Liggett Group LLC (Liggett) and Vector Tobacco Inc. subsidiaries; and the real estate business through its New Valley LLC (New Valley) subsidiary. The company's business segments were Tobacco, and Real Estate. The Tobacco segment consists of the manufacture and sale of conventional cigarettes. The Real Estate segment includes the company's investment in New Valley, which includes Douglas Elliman, Escena, Sagaponack and investments in real estate ventures.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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