Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.37 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Mixed Signals, Reasons for Caution

The S&P 500 uptrend remains intact, and the same can be said for the QQQ's. Despite a positive view of these two metrics, the aspect of of failed U.S. dollar breakdown coupled with the reversal. of the 10-year yields higher does give us pause. The S&P 500 breadth is showing signs of breadth
divergence.
1.) The U.S. dollar has staged a false breakdown and is now on the cusp of a reversal. A decisive close through last Friday's close of 104.89 could yet negate the reversal however, until or if that happens remains in question... see chart below
2.) False breakdown on 10-yr yield at the critical 4.35% level, 4.47% support holding on 30-yr yield,
4.72% support holding on 2-yr yield. Simply put, higher yields tend to pressure the equity markets as risk-free rates rise..see page 4
3.) IWM breaking to new RS lows, violating 7-month RS support. Quality related names continue to be leadership within the market, and Technology continues to dominate relative performance...

4.) Gold, silver, copper breaking? Gold would need to take out the recent low of $2294, Silver has support at $29.10 and Copper remain in it's uptrend but did break the uptrend intraday last week and is now back in the daily uptrend...see page 5
5.) XLI RS breakdown, though price still above $120 support. Relative strength however does

6.) There is typically at least one or two 5-10% SPX pullbacks in any given year. SPX had a 6% pullback in April. With that said, during the prior two election years (2016 and 2020) a pullback has happened in the two months before the election (September and October). 2016 saw a 5% pullback while 2020 saw a 10% pullback. That does not mean a pullback can't start sooner, so we are on the lookout for further deterioration in market dynamics.
Underlyings
Ardmore Shipping

BURLINGTON STORES INC.

Burlington Stores is a holding company. Through its indirect subsidiary, Burlington Coat Factory Warehouse Corporation sells merchandise including: women's ready-to-wear apparel, accessories, footwear, menswear, youth apparel, baby, home, coats, beauty, toys and gifts. The company operates stores under the names Burlington Stores, Cohoes Fashions, Super Baby Depot, MJM Designer Shoes and an online store. Cohoes Fashions provides products similar to those offered by Burlington Stores. MJM Designer Shoes provides moderately priced designer and fashion shoes. The Super Baby Depot stores provides baby clothing, accessories, furniture and other merchandise in the middle to higher price range.

Costamare Inc.

Costamare is an international owner of containerships. Co. is engaged in chartering vessels to many of the world's liner companies. As of Feb 23 2018, Co. has a fleet of 71 containerships with a total capacity in excess of 466,000 twenty foot equivalent units (TEUs). Co.'s strategy is to time charter its containerships to a geographically diverse, financially strong and loyal group of liner companies. Co.'s containerships operate primarily under multi-year charters and therefore are not subject to the effect of seasonal variations in demand. Some of Co.'s customers are A.P. Moller-Maersk, MSC, Evergreen, Hapag Lloyd and COSCO.

EUROSEAS LTD

Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd.

HIMALAYA SHIPPING LTD.

International Flavors & Fragrances Inc.

International Flavors & Fragrances is a creator and manufacturer of taste, scent and complementary adjacent products, including cosmetic active and natural health ingredients. The company's operating segments are Taste and Scent. The Taste segment develops a range of different flavors and taste offerings for its customers, most of which are tailor-made. The company's Taste business is comprised of various portfolios across flavor compounds, savory solutions, inclusions and nutrition and specialty ingredients. The Scent segment creates fragrance compounds and fragrance ingredients for the household and personal care products. The company also produces cosmetic active and functional ingredients for use in cosmetics.

Kirby Corporation

Kirby operates tank barge. The company's marine transportation segment provides marine transportation services, operating tank barges and towing vessels transporting bulk liquid products. The company transports petrochemicals, black oil, refined petroleum products and agricultural chemicals by tank barge. The company's distribution and services segment, sells genuine replacement parts, provides service mechanics to overhaul and repair engines, transmissions, reduction gears and related oilfield services equipment, rebuilds component parts or diesel engines, transmissions and reduction gears, and related equipment used in oilfield services, marine, power generation, on-highway and other industrial applications.

Matson Inc.

Matson is a holding company engaged in the provision of ocean transportation and logistics services. The company's Ocean transportation segment business is conducted through Matson Navigation Company, Inc., which provides a lifeline of ocean freight transportation services to the domestic non-contiguous economies of Hawaii, Alaska and Guam, and to other island economies in Micronesia and operates an expedited service from China to Long Beach, CA, and provides services to Okinawa, Japan and various islands in the South Pacific. The company's Logistics business is conducted through Matson Logistics, Inc., an asset-light business that provides a variety of logistics services to its customers.

Navios Maritime Partners

Navios Maritime Partners L.P. is an international owner and operator of dry cargo and container vessels. The Company is engaged in the seaborne transportation services of a range of dry cargo commodities, including iron ore, coal, grain and fertilizer, and also containers, chartering its vessels under medium to long-term charters. It focuses on providing seaborne shipping services under long-term time charters. As of December 31, 2016, it controlled 12 Panamax vessels, nine Capesize vessels, three Ultra-Handymax vessels and seven container vessels. Panamax vessels are vessels capable of carrying a range of dry cargo commodities, including iron ore, coal, grain and fertilizer and being accommodated in various discharge ports. Capesize vessels are dedicated to the carriage of iron ore and coal. Ultra-Handymax vessels are similar to Panamax vessels although with less carrying capacity, and have self-loading and discharging gear on board to accommodate undeveloped ports.

Rosinter Restaurants Holding Ord Shs

Rosinter Restorants Holding PAO (Rosinter Restaurants Holding PJSC) is a Russia-based company engaged in the operation of restaurant. The Company offers Italian, Japanese, American and local Russian cuisine. It operates IL Patio pizza pasta grill, Planet Sushi, American Bar and Grill, Cafe Des Artistes, Pechki-Lavochki and 1-2-3 Cafe, as well as T.G.I. Friday's and Costa Coffee. Operations are carried out in the Russian Federation, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Latvia, the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary. The Company operates through numerous subsidiaries and affiliated companies located domestically, as well as abroad. On September 4, 2014, the Company sold 51% stake in Rosinter Restaurants Samara ZAO to Restorannaya Ob'yedinennaya Set' i Noveyshiye Tekhnologii Evroamerikanskogo Razvitiya Restorants OOO.

Safe Bulkers Inc.

Safe Bulkers is an international provider of marine drybulk transportation services, transporting bulk cargoes, particularly coal, grain and iron ore, along worldwide shipping routes for consumers of marine drybulk transportation services. As of Feb. 9, 2018, Co. had a fleet of 39 drybulk vessels, with an aggregate carrying capacity of 3,513,800 dwt and an average age of 7.6 years. Co. deploys its vessels on both period time charters and spot time charters. The vessels on period time charters provide Co. with relatively stable cash flow and utilization rates, while the vessels in the spot market allow Co. to maintain its flexibility in low charter market conditions.

Sensient Technologies Corporation

Sensient Technologies is a manufacturer and marketer of colors, flavors and fragrances. The company's three reportable segments are: Flavors & Fragrances Group, which develops, manufactures, and supplies flavor and fragrance systems for the food, beverage, personal care, and household-products industries; Color Group, which provides natural and synthetic color systems for use in foods, beverages, pharmaceuticals, and nutraceuticals, colors and other ingredients for cosmetics; and Asia Pacific Group, which provides a range of products from its Flavors & Fragrances Group and Color Group, as well as products developed by regional technical teams to appeal to local preferences.

Star Bulk Carriers Corp.

Star Bulk Carriers is an international company providing worldwide transportation solutions in the drybulk sector through its vessels-owning subsidiaries for a range of customers of major and minor bulk cargoes including iron ore, coal, grain, cement, fertilizer, along worldwide shipping routes. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. owned and operated a fleet of 73 vessels consisting primarily of Newcastlemax, Capesize as well as Kamsarmax, Ultramax and Supramax vessels with a carrying capacity between 52,055 dwt and 209,537 dwt. Co.'s vessels transport a range of major and minor bulk commodities, including ores, coal, grains and fertilizers, along worldwide shipping routes.

TJX Companies Inc

TJX Companies is an off-price apparel and home fashions retailer. The company's segments comprised of: Marmaxx, which sells family apparel (including footwear and accessories), home fashions (including home basics, decorative accessories and giftware) and other merchandise; HomeGoods, which provides a range of home fashions, including home fashions, including furniture, rugs, lighting, soft home, decorative accessories, tabletop and cookware as well as pet, kids and gourmet food departments; TJX Canada, which operates the Winners, HomeSense and Marshalls chains in Canada; and TJX International, which operates the T.K. Maxx and HomeSense chains in Europe and the T.K. Maxx chain in Australia.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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